Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

[Bumbles]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

There have been plenty of teams that have come close to running the table in their conference regular seasons and then gone on to run the table in the their conference tournaments. BU and Cornell looked like they'd be pretty close to doing that -- or at least in the case of BU, BC was probably the only team that could beat them, and BC's a top 8 team anyway. So it looked like it might be pretty unlikely there'd be an upstart autobid (i.e. one from outside the top 8).

But now it looks a lot less certain that there won't be an upstart autobid from these leagues than a month ago. BU does not look as dominant as 2006 or 2008 UNH, and Cornell does not look as dominant as 2007 Dartmouth or 2008 Harvard. But a month ago, these teams looked about as dominant as those teams. That's why I brought up those results. These results definitely matter to anyone forecasting whether there will be an upstart autobid from these leagues, even yes, I agree there's potentially some late-season lack of focus involved.

I don't disagree with you but if you followed the teams closely like I do (BU specifically), you'd know that they've been playing without their then-leading scorer who's been out for several weeks now as well as another top 6 forward. This caused all the lines to be shuffled as well as one of the D's being converted to a F. With that said, I still agree with you that the team obviously hasn't looked very dominant and still should've won their games despite missing players.

For Hockey East, Providence is a very strong candidate to steal the autobid.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I don't disagree with you but if you followed the teams closely like I do (BU specifically), you'd know that they've been playing without their then-leading scorer who's been out for several weeks now as well as another top 6 forward. This caused all the lines to be shuffled as well as one of the D's being converted to a F. With that said, I still agree with you that the team obviously hasn't looked very dominant and still should've won their games despite missing players. For Hockey East, Providence is a very strong candidate to steal the autobid.

I did know that -- mainly because I pay close attention to the Kazmaier selections. I noticed Philip-Poulin and Wakefield were scoring less and BU was not quite as dominant even before Philip-Poulin was injured. Even if she comes back 100%, I can't possibly imagine BU will instantly be as great as they were when they won 13 in a row and obliterated Princeton, BC and Harvard.

 

[hockeyfan111]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

yes, you hit the nail on the head and it was exactly the point i was making; depends on how you spin it.

regarding the ncaa selection, to level set everyone, it would be good to know the selection committees rules for selection. In particular,

- if you win your league's regular season, do you get an automatic bid?
- if you win your league's end of season tournament, do you get an automatic bid?
- any other influencers.

i remember some discussion that the selection rules were the same for ECAC, HE & WCHA, but different for CHA because they only have 5 teams in the league. A good summary would be helpful because my suspicion is that many teams are already in the NCAA draw and there is really only focus on a few teams and scenarios (ie: North Dakota, BC, UMD) that have been in the top 8 for most of the season.

Would a good example be the way you choose to use the last 9 games instead of the last 12, which would be 7-3-2. BU is 8-3-1 over its last 12 games, both have losses and ties to very mediocre teams (NH and Maine), this clearly shows they are beatable. Lots of excuses, but these are games that top ranked teams “should” win. All I hear Dave saying is that these teams could be knocked off creating an interesting selection challenge for the NCAA. In addition ND beating Minny should solidify their status.

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

regarding the ncaa selection, to level set everyone, it would be good to know the selection committees rules for selection. In particular,

- if you win your league's regular season, do you get an automatic bid?
- if you win your league's end of season tournament, do you get an automatic bid?
- any other influencers.

i remember some discussion that the selection rules were the same for ECAC, HE & WCHA, but different for CHA because they only have 5 teams in the league. A good summary would be helpful because my suspicion is that many teams are already in the NCAA draw and there is really only focus on a few teams and scenarios (ie: North Dakota, BC, UMD) that have been in the top 8 for most of the season.

2011 National Collegiate Women's Ice Hockey Championship Handbook

See page 10, "Determination of Competing Institutions".

Also see the USCHO.com Pairwise Ranking which attempts to mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I women's hockey tournament.

 

[scrambledlegs]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

2011 National Collegiate Women's Ice Hockey Championship Handbook

See page 10, "Determination of Competing Institutions".

Also see the USCHO.com Pairwise Ranking which attempts to mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I women's hockey tournament.

I wasn't able to open the document on my phone but as far as I know, there are only 3 autobids and that is for the season tournament championships (for ECAC, WCHA and HE). All the rest are based on rankings (mostly)

As freak and others can attest, last year PC was the regular season champions and we didn't get an invite.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Here's the relevant portion of the handbook

Divisions I and II institutions that wish to be considered for selection to the National Collegiate Championship must schedule a minimum of 20 games against Divisions I and II opponents.

After considering the eligibility/availability of student-athletes for each team, the committee will evaluate a team’s season performance using the categories below. Teams must also be at or above 50.00 in the RPI in order to receive the following consideration (not in preferential order):
• *Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [won-lost record (30 percent), opponents’ winning percentage (24 percent) and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (46 percent)];
• Head-to-head competition;
• Results versus common opponents; and
• Results against teams in the RPI top 12.
*If points awarded for any win lower a team’s average RPI, those points will not count toward the RPI. During the selection process, each of the above criteria will carry one point except head-to-head competition, which will carry the number of points equal to the net difference in the results of these games (e.g., if Team A defeats Team B three out of four games, Team A would receive two points in the selection process). When comparing two teams, the committee reserves the right to weight criteria differently based on relative team performance. For example, if there is only a tiny fraction of a difference two teams records vs. common opponents, and a large difference in their results vs. teams under consideration, the committee may weight results vs. teams under consideration more heavily that common opponents.

A few things worth noting:
The "results vs top 12 in RPI" is new. Previously it was record vs. anyone with RPI > .500, which usually meant the top 18 or so teams. This has a noticeable impact on Mercyhurst, who only has 3 games against the top 12.

The language about weighting criteria based on margins I believe is new or recent. Nevertheless, the committee has typically practiced this (notably in 2008 when selecting Dartmouth over Clarkson).

Note the criteria are "results against teams in the RPI top 12" not "record." Thus I think it gives the committee some leeway to recognize North Dakota's results as being better than Dartmouth's results vs. the RPI top 12 if it comes down to it, even if they end up with the same record.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

The USCHO PWR are usually a good approximation of the NCAA selection criteria, but I think they may be off for Minnesota vs. Mercyhurst at the moment, which seems likely to determine who gets NCAA quarterfinal home ice.

Right now Mercyhurst is given the USCHO PWR comparison with a slight advantage in RPI and common opponents. But here is how I think it breaks down:

-- the difference in RPI between the teams will likely be too small to be meaningful
-- right now the USCHO PWR are not giving Minnesota a point for record vs. RPI top 12, even though they have the advantage. The reason is Mercyhurst does not have 10 games against such teams so the comparison doesn't apply in the PWR (but I believe this is a misapplication of a men's rule to the women's game, this language about 10 games is in the men's handbook but not the women's). But this should be a clear advantage for Minnesota.
-- I don't think the common opponents comparison captures the correct information. Minnesota is 1-2-1 against Wisconsin and Mercyhurst is 0-1 against Wisconsin. Minnesota and Mercyhurst are each 8-1 against their remaining common opponents. There is no sense in which Mercyhust's common opponent performance is "better" than Minnesota's.

So right now I think Minnesota is in solid position to hold off Mercyhurst for the 4th spot. The only way I believe Mercyhurst would get it is if they developed a larger edge in RPI -- perhaps if Mercyhurst wins out while Minnesota loses in the WCHA quarterfinals.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

To answer your questions directly:

- if you win your league's regular season, do you get an automatic bid?

No

- if you win your league's end of season tournament, do you get an automatic bid?

Yes, but only those conference with six ore more teams in it, so that translates to three Autobids, The ECAC champ, The WCHA champ and The HE champ.

- any other influencers?

The 8 places go to the 3 auto bids plus 5 at large bids. The at large bids go to the top ranked teams remaining after the autobids. This is why teams ranked number 7 and 8 could get pushed out if the autobid ends up going to a non-top-eight ranked teams. This is what put a team like ND on thin ice for getting in. Most years there is at least one surprising autobid. As Dave has been explaining, the determination of the final 8 is somewhat variable based on which 8 teams are contained within due to pairwise, RPI, SOS and TUC comparisons.

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

-- I don't think the common opponents comparison captures the correct information. Minnesota is 1-2-1 against Wisconsin and Mercyhurst is 0-1 against Wisconsin. Minnesota and Mercyhurst are each 8-1 against their remaining common opponents. There is no sense in which Mercyhust's common opponent performance is "better" than Minnesota's.

You are right; MC does better in the gross COP number because they played WSU more while the UM played UW more times. The Warriors are the only individual opponent where the Lakers have the better result, and both teams have a winning percentage of 1.000 in that case (MC=4-0; UM=1-0). If that is viewed as a wash, then UM is as good or better for the others (SCSU: MC=3-0; UM=4-0. BSU: MC=1-1; UM=3-1. And as you stated, UW: MC=0-1; UM=1-2-1.)

As for the "10 games" language from the men's handbook, that number would need to be prorated for the women if used, because the men have a larger TUC bucket than just 12 teams.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

For Hockey East, Providence is a very strong candidate to steal the autobid.

Been saying this for a while. PC has good tending. Key matchup might be the semi between PC and BC. The way things have unfolded recently, would give both PC and BC the edge over BU in the final.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

As for the "10 games" language from the men's handbook, that number would need to be prorated for the women if used, because the men have a larger TUC bucket than just 12 teams.

Ok, the USCHO PWR record vs. RPI top 12 criterion is fixed now.

Thanks for making that point -- it was helpful in making it clear that the PWR was wrong on that. Five of 12 teams did not have 10 games vs the RPI top 12, and none of the intra-Beanpot and intra-WCHA comparisons made that cutoff either.

The only immediate change in the rankings is that Mercyhurst now loses the comparison to Dartmouth.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Re: 2010-2011 Rutter DI Computer Rankings Thread
Originally Posted by LakersFan
For games played through Feb. 20, 2011

Code:
Team Rating
1 Wisconsin 1.8613
2 Cornell 1.3700
3 Minnesota 1.1848
4 Minnesota Duluth 1.1022
5 Mercyhurst 1.0598
6 Boston University 0.8517
7 North Dakota 0.6978
8 Boston College 0.6107
9 Dartmouth 0.4038
10 Providence 0.3635
I think this is a great recommendation for the NCAA selection committee. It avoids all intra conference 1st round matchups. Not the best travel schedule, but what I like best is the potential for an all WCHA Frozen Four. I am sure for that reason alone it won't meet a lot of the committee members criteria.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I can assure you that the NCAA committee will not
(1) care one bit about what the Rutter rankings look like
(2) be motivated one bit to avoid a potential for an all-WCHA Frozen Four.

I have to say though that at this point it looks tough that all four WCHA teams will make it and avoid playing each other in the NCAA quarterfinals. Rightnow North Dakota is pretty far behind BC for the No. 7 spot according to the NCAA criteria. It'll probably take North Dakota upsetting Wisconsin in the WCHA quarters and BC not winning Hockey East for North Dakota to make the tournament and avoid Wisconsin in the NCAA quarterfinals (and either BU or Cornell to win their leagues under that scenario, if UND doesn't).

I think NCAA will try to avoid intraconference matchups when they can, but since 2008 it's been clear that preserving bracket integrity is more important to them. They'll swap teams that are close, but N. Dakota just isn't that close to BC right now in the NCAA's selection criteria.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I can assure you that the NCAA committee will not
(1) care one bit about what the Rutter rankings look like
(2) be motivated one bit to avoid a potential for an all-WCHA Frozen Four.

I have to say though that at this point it looks tough that all four WCHA teams will make it and avoid playing each other in the NCAA quarterfinals. Rightnow North Dakota is pretty far behind BC for the No. 7 spot according to the NCAA criteria. It'll probably take North Dakota upsetting Wisconsin in the WCHA quarters and BC not winning Hockey East for North Dakota to make the tournament and avoid Wisconsin in the NCAA quarterfinals (and either BU or Cornell to win their leagues under that scenario, if UND doesn't).

I think NCAA will try to avoid intraconference matchups when they can, but since 2008 it's been clear that preserving bracket integrity is more important to them. They'll swap teams that are close, but N. Dakota just isn't that close to BC right now in the NCAA's selection criteria.

I agree with you, just being hopeful. There are alot of very good teams this year and the WCHA is particularly strong and I just hate to see them knock each other off in the 1/4 finals. I don't see ND knocking off Wisco in a game that really means something to Duggan, Knight and company. I do think BC has the potential to be upset and I would rather see a Cornell vs ND and a UW vs BC, but i think you are right. Frankly BSU won't be a cake walk for ND anyway.

 

[dave1381]

I agree with you, just being hopeful. There are alot of very good teams this year and the WCHA is particularly strong and I just hate to see them knock each other off in the 1/4 finals. I don't see ND knocking off Wisco in a game that really means something to Duggan, Knight and company. I do think BC has the potential to be upset and I would rather see a Cornell vs ND and a UW vs BC, but i think you are right. Frankly BSU won't be a cake walk for ND anyway.

I agree. It as a dilemma about how much to avoid intraconference pairings vs bracket integrity.

I would prefer the committee to consider:
--avoiding retreads of conference tourney matchups, esp for leagues other than ECAC where teams play each other more
--use such matchups if otherwisewould massively mess with bracket integrity

So for example:
2006: if BC had made NCAAs, they should have been paired with 1 UNH, even though it was a rematch, since Mercyhurst at 7 was a much tougher foe
2007: 6 Harvard should have been sent to 3 Dartmouth rather than 1 Wisconsin (not a con tourney rematch)
2008: Wisconsin should not have been paired with Minnesota. Harvard-Dartmouth pairing was fine.

The case for avoiding UND vs Wisconsin is less clear cut, since Wisconsin has handled UND well this year, and the criteria do suggest BC is better across the board. (even if other criteria suggest UND is better)

 

[freak]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

As freak and others can attest, last year PC was the regular season champions and we didn't get an invite.

Well part of the reason for that is the shoot out "wins" that gave PC the regular season championship. The NCAA considers those ties, so PC's resume was lacking absent winning the HEA Tournament title.

 

[scrambledlegs]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Well part of the reason for that is the shoot out "wins" that gave PC the regular season championship. The NCAA considers those ties, so PC's resume was lacking absent winning the HEA Tournament title.

Wow That bait rotted out there for 2.5 days

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

The case for avoiding UND vs Wisconsin is less clear cut, since Wisconsin has handled UND well this year, and the criteria do suggest BC is better across the board. (even if other criteria suggest UND is better)

Lost my Dave1381 decoder ring. What does this mean exactly?

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Lost my Dave1381 decoder ring. What does this mean exactly?

sorry, I wrote this on my phone.

I was considering a scenario where the committee is creating a bracket where Wisconsin is 1, some WCHA team (probably Cornell) is 2, BC is 7, and North Dakota 8.

The question is, should the committee do Wisconsin vs. UND and Cornell vs BC /or/ Wisconsin vs. BC and Cornell vs. UND ???

I dislike the first set of pairings because it would pair two teams who've played each other five times already. The downside of the second pairing, at least from the NCAA perspective, is that BC probably tops UND in all NCAA criteria by a noticeable margin and you're swapping away an opponent who Wisconsin may have beaten 5 times already and you're creating two flights. In these situations, I have little doubt the NCAA would choose the Wisconsin vs. UND and Cornell vs. BC options -- they won't create two flights unless there's a pretty good reason.

Now if the NCAA used a more statistically founded method of ranking teams, say KRACH or Rutter instead of RPI, then maybe the NCAA would conclude UND was actually better than BC and be willing to consider the latter option. But the NCAA uses RPI, so if there are no upstart autobid winners, and Wisconsin beats UND in the WCHA semis (if all top seeds advance), then I think it's pretty likely Wisconsin gets UND again in the NCAA quarters.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I was momentarily imagine the horrible possibility that the WCHA teams would be effectively seeded 1, 4, 5, 8 in the NCAA tournament (only 1-4 actually seeded), making half the bracket a retread of the WCHA tournament! It'd be like the first post 9-11 NCAA men's hockey tournament, ugh. But I don't see it happening.

It looks pretty likely to me now that the Minnesota-UMD winner will get to host Mercyhurst in an NCAA quarterfinal, while the loser will get sent to BU. 4 through 7 are all fairly close though (and BU's falling back into the pack). If you're BC, you probably want to play BU in the Hockey East final because a win over them is worth more for the PWR and they're not 100%.