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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

I just realized that Alaska is using RCV for the Presidential race. Now, the odds are Dump will hit 50% but woo boy the potential chaos if he doesn’t.
 
French Rage said:
Take from it what you will: https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

The spread between the Senate races and the POTUS race in swing states is noteworthy though. I remember a month ago there was an AZ poll with Gallego +9 but Trump +6. For starters, split races are an extinct breed; they used to happen a lot 30 or 40 years ago, but in the last decade they've all but disappeared. And if it does happen somewhere, it would be somewhere like MD where Hogan has tried to distance himself from Trump and thus may get some crossover voters; it is most certainly not happening in AZ, where Lake is a Trump clone; there is no way 1/6 of voters will vote for one of Trump or Lake but somehow not the other. The question is, which was more accurate, the Gallego +9 or the Trump +6, or are both somewhere in the middle? The fact that the poll shows a 15 point spread where there will most definitely not be one makes you wonder what the hell is happening with the polling, though.
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That was a fascinating read...a bit tough for an amateur like me but it is broken down well enough that I get the gist. It matches everything I am seeing elsewhere and despite a lot of really favorable numbers doesn't seem too pie in the sky.

One quibble is I think they are overlooking the split vote a little bit more than they should. I get their reasoning and sort of get their numbers but the truth is this election is not like 2016 or 2020. With Abortion Care on the ballot it throws another variable into the mix which could shift things here or there. Plus, there are places where I could definitely see there being a dividing line that causes a split...AZ being one. Gallego is super popular and Kari Lake is not well liked (plus she has been around a while and people are tired of her schtick) even by Trump half the time. Gallego is an easy pick over her irregardless of how you feel about Trump. Throw in voting to enshrine Abortion Rights and you could see some middle of the road types saying "we checked him by not helping him get The Senate and protected women's rights...we are good! I don't think that will happen, but it is an outcome that is possible. In reality though I think Gallego +9 is closer to being right and I think Harris is probably +2 but that is just gut feelings I have zero idea.

The better example is NC where Robinson is -22 but Trump is somehow +1. Now there is other things at play here (Watch The Good Liars in NC they talk to a lot of Trump Voters who wont vote for Robinson) but I honestly think half the Trump Yes/Robinson No voters likely weren't going to vote for him anyways for reasons that are rather obvious and they chose to keep silent. (now they have easier to digest reasoning) I mean Stein was like +10 before the K-File story broke and Trump was +2 then so obviously something was going on.

I didn't sign up for an account so I couldn't read their conclusions but I mean if their polling is legit in any way Trump is in heaps of trouble. Between the insane gender gap and Independents breaking hard for Harris...
 
French Rage said:
Yeah, if I were on their side, I would emphasize Biden's comment by playing just the clip over and over and doing nothing else. Like, take the win and leave it at that. Doing the garbage truck and the garbage bags when your own team has a much more publicized garbage comment a few days earlier really muddies the water on whether you're condemning the other side's comment and doubling down on yours.
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I would have just ignored it. Let the media talk about it to take the spotlight off of you for a day and count your blessings. I guarantee the non-Stephen Millers were saying that.

Then again I would have done the same thing with the "Women Voting For Harris" ad that had them go nuts. Just shut up and ignore it or say "that is cute but who cares" and it is a non-story. Reacting added the Streisand Effect to the equation and the over the top misogyny proved the entire point of the ad and did way more harm than the ad itself could have ever done.

This is the type of stuff that happens when you have no one in your campaign that knows how to run a campaign or is willing to tell Hair Fuhrer "No".
 
Is Arizona a lost cause for the Presidency? I'd like to see the Blue Wall, NC, Georgia, and Arizona come in. Maybe get rid of Ted Cruz, and hell let's get Iowa.

From what I saw today the Trump campaign is panicking about NC.
 
French Rage said:
I think if anyone has the level of thought you are assigning to them there they are not voting for Lake or Trump, but that's just me. Of any noteworthy Senate race Lake has spent her entire career trying to be Trump, that's not the one where there's going to be a whopping 15-point spread. Like, I don't know who's ultimately going to win any of these races, but the one thing I do know if that AZ will be a small spread.
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Don't get me wrong, I agree that there is little chance that its Gallego +9 and Trump +6 or whatever...that dog wont hunt. To me that smells of pollsters using past trends to predict future outcomes even though the entire breakdown of the people supporting Harris and Gallego is in and of itself breaking past norms. I mean when GOP border town Mayors are endorsing a Dem that is not some weird outlier (especially since multiple did) that won't have an affect on things...especially when it is done in like August not when its the end and all hell is breaking loose. Those are the people that love people like Liz Cheney and (as much as I hate her and everything she stands for and believes) she stepped and went there and stumped. That is beyond historical oddity and is something that gets lost in how polling is done these days. There is just no way to account for that outside of people actually talking to pollsters.

What I am saying though is it is a bit shortsighted to assume that split tickets dont or wont happen just because they tend not to. That is falling into the same type of trap.

The truth is though, we just need to accept that polling as it stands now doesn't work no matter who wins tomorrow. I mean there is a reason why every pollster and pundit is praising Selzer and her poll (even though it destroys their narrative) and that is because the methodology itself is sound. Its not trying to prove an outcome, it is not trying to sway and it is not trying to find a trend based on what came before it. It is just raw phucking data and what that data says. It is super simple. Most of the time, that is rather boring stuff and it leaves people either tuning out or trying to find zebras. It can also just be wrong but it isn't wrong because it went out on a limb or tried to weight the information to find a conclusion, it was wrong because it required more information. Its math, and math is boring but math works.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
Is Arizona a lost cause for the Presidency? I'd like to see the Blue Wall, NC, Georgia, and Arizona come in. Maybe get rid of Ted Cruz, and hell let's get Iowa.

From what I saw today the Trump campaign is panicking about NC.
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No AZ is not a lost cause for the Presidency.

As I posted yesterday Trump should we worried about his counties are lagging behind in voting to a significant enough degree to be noticed and reports are Dems are beating their normal numbers in those areas as well. It doesn't take many votes to flip what was a 1.5% margin from last cycle and his areas were crushed by Helene. The NC Dems made it their mission after last cycle to go to every county and try and peel off voters and if it worked even a little bit NC is going to be a huge sweat for him even if he wins it.
 
Handyman said:
Oh man...that could be fun!
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Kennedy is still on the ballot here and was hitting 7% in the last poll while Dump was hitting 51%. The chances are low but there’s still a chance. If nobody hits 50% they’ll have to wait until all the absentee ballots are in to do the RCV calculations and that could be a month or more.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Kennedy is still on the ballot here and was hitting 7% in the last poll while Dump was hitting 51%. The chances are low but there’s still a chance. If nobody hits 50% they’ll have to wait until all the absentee ballots are in to do the RCV calculations and that could be a month or more.
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What happens if no one hits 50% in the end? Do they have to have a runoff? That would be wild if the whole election came down to one state -- Alaska no less -- to a runoff a ~month after the general election.
 
Russell Jaslow said:
What happens if no one hits 50% in the end? Do they have to have a runoff? That would be wild if the whole election came down to one state -- Alaska no less -- to a runoff a ~month after the general election.
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Alaska uses Ranked Choice Voting (Maine does as well) so if nobody hits 50% once all the votes are in then they eliminate the lowest ranked candidate and reallocate those votes to those people’s second choice. If nobody is at 50% still they eliminate the lowest person again and allocate again over and over until someone hits 50%+1.

The chaos would be in the wait. The Alaska DOE won’t do the RCV calculations until all the votes are in and absentee ballots have something like 30 days to arrive.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Alaska uses Ranked Choice Voting (Maine does as well) so if nobody hits 50% once all the votes are in then they eliminate the lowest ranked candidate and reallocate those votes to those people’s second choice. If nobody is at 50% still they eliminate the lowest person again and allocate again over and over until someone hits 50%+1.

The chaos would be in the wait. The Alaska DOE won’t do the RCV calculations until all the votes are in and absentee ballots have something like 30 days to arrive.
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I mean we all know that RFK voters will put Trump second so its much ado about nothing but my god the fun that would ensue. The only way it matters though electorally is if things go pretty bizarre tomorrow night.
 
Handyman said:
I mean we all know that RFK voters will put Trump second so it’s much ado about nothing but my god the fun that would ensue. The only way it matters though electorally is if things go pretty bizarre tomorrow night.
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Might not even get to that point if Kennedy is in third.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
Is Arizona a lost cause for the Presidency?
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Definitely not. There are butthurt CA conservatives moving in, but the lions' share of immigration is college educated techies coming to the Silicon Desert, and every person with more than 4 brain cells is a Dem now. Plus AZ is showing end-to-end ads of nice white suburban daughters and wives being ground up by the Handmaid Brigade.

It may go to Dump by 2 points as the polls indicate, but it's hard to see how that really works with him not expanding his appeal and losing hussy wives who will commit the unpardonable cuckoldry of thinking for themselves.
 
Handyman said:
Then again I would have done the same thing with the "Women Voting For Harris" ad that had them go nuts. Just shut up and ignore it or say "that is cute but who cares" and it is a non-story. Reacting added the Streisand Effect to the equation and the over the top misogyny proved the entire point of the ad and did way more harm than the ad itself could have ever done.
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When I watched that ad I thought, "about 20k people watch Lincoln Project ads and they are all Liberals. The scum are going to go ballistic and it will be seen by 20M people and half of them will be conservatives."

5 million conservative women who would never have seen it will see it because Charlie Kirk screamed like a scalded baby. And they will see it in the context of being told by men they are not permitted to think for themselves. I realize conservative women have, by definition, a kink for being treated like dirt, but that will be too much for a lot of women who were also raised on derpy honky tonk music about being independent.

If Cruz loses it will be because the Hateful Taint rose to the bait, as was exactly what the Lincoln Project intended.
 
Trump's never "hit" anyone in his life. Like the other day when he was threatening to go backstage and slap around those who were responsible for his mic not working.

Yeah right. Prep School Donnie has never been in a fight his entire life. He's about the biggest puzzy there is. Little wimpy man who's all talk.

And yes, when he said 'hit' that was just more (un)subtle Trump code. He really meant hit. Just like when he said there's be a bloodbath if he wasn't elected. His followers know what he means, and are all too eager to jump when he calls.
 
Kepler said:
When I watched that ad I thought, "about 20k people watch Lincoln Project ads and they are all Liberals. The scum are going to go ballistic and it will be seen by 20M people and half of them will be conservatives."

5 million conservative women who would never have seen it will see it because Charlie Kirk screamed like a scalded baby. And they will see it in the context of being told by men they are not permitted to think for themselves. I realize conservative women have, by definition, a kink for being treated like dirt, but that will be too much for a lot of women who were also raised on derpy honky tonk music about being independent.

If Cruz loses it will be because the Hateful Taint rose to the bait, as was exactly what the Lincoln Project intended.
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Not that it matters but the original ad is not Lincoln Project it is a Christian Group For Harris IIRC.
 
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