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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

Handyman said:
That is her right...and I support it but I hope she understands any chance she had to help mold foreign policy to help her people just died.
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100% agree. Didn't mean to imply otherwise.

She's ensured that she'll never get a seat at the table in a Harris admin or Trump wins and Palestine gets flattened
 
dxmnkd316 said:
100% agree. Didn't mean to imply otherwise.

She's ensured that she'll never get a seat at the table in a Harris admin or Trump wins and Palestine gets flattened
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Yeah. As you said it's a stupid own goal if she didn't clear it with Harris. She risks losers like Anthony Blinken sticking around instead of having a voice in who sets State Department policy.

She reminds me of Progressives prior to AOC...so focused on what's in front of them they forget to actually bring about change you need to be in the game. Protests are great but they on their own aren't enough. Like the people who didn't vote for Hillary and protested Trump when he took office. You had the power to stop it but you forfeited it. Now your performative theater gets you nothing.

Omar hates our policies yet stumped for Harris all over the place including her parts of Minneapolis. She learned...Tlaib has not. For her sake and the sake of the Palestinian People i hope she didnt make a long term error to make a short term point.
 
Handyman said:
Yeah. As you said it's a stupid own goal if she didn't clear it with Harris. She risks losers like Anthony Blinken sticking around instead of having a voice in who sets State Department policy.

She reminds me of Progressives prior to AOC...so focused on what's in front of them they forget to actually bring about change you need to be in the game. Protests are great but they on their own aren't enough. Like the people who didn't vote for Hillary and protested Trump when he took office. You had the power to stop it but you forfeited it. Now your performative theater gets you nothing.

Omar hates our policies yet stumped for Harris all over the place including her parts of Minneapolis. She learned...Tlaib has not. For her sake and the sake of the Palestinian People i hope she didnt make a long term error to make a short term point.
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"Impeach the mf'er" probably should've been our clue that Rashida wasn't likely to play along with anyone who got in the way of her agenda. Oh well.
 
RFK Jr says if Trump wins, Flouride is eliminated from water day one.


We are in the dumbest timeline.
 
I'll say this, even in red Idaho where I currently am, I've seen way more Harris signs than I ever saw for Clinton or Biden. And they seem to be almost as common as trump signs. In some areas, more common! On the block just one over from me there are two homes with trump signs. And the other 10 all have Harris signs. I've even seen a couple homes with Harris signs and then also signs for a republican state rep. Now Harris basically has 0 chance of winning here but it would seem that more people than we think may be turning from trump even if they aren't fully turning from the party
 
Proud2baLaker said:
I'll say this, even in red Idaho where I currently am, I've seen way more Harris signs than I ever saw for Clinton or Biden. And they seem to be almost as common as trump signs. In some areas, more common! On the block just one over from me there are two homes with trump signs. And the other 10 all have Harris signs. I've even seen a couple homes with Harris signs and then also signs for a republican state rep. Now Harris basically has 0 chance of winning here but it would seem that more people than we think may be turning from trump even if they aren't fully turning from the party
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I know my mom has done her part in IF to get some D votes. I *think* other relatives who are still there will vote Harris, but they are really strong with their Whataboutism and Bothsideism when trying to claim that both sides are the same- when it's obvious that they very much are not.
 
Proud2baLaker said:
I'll say this, even in red Idaho where I currently am, I've seen way more Harris signs than I ever saw for Clinton or Biden. And they seem to be almost as common as trump signs. In some areas, more common! On the block just one over from me there are two homes with trump signs. And the other 10 all have Harris signs. I've even seen a couple homes with Harris signs and then also signs for a republican state rep. Now Harris basically has 0 chance of winning here but it would seem that more people than we think may be turning from trump even if they aren't fully turning from the party
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Same thing here in Alaska. Some states (Iowa, Alaska, Kansas for example) could be a lot closer than the media and pollsters think.
 
WaPo has Harris +1 in Pennsylvania (48-47)

Marist has Harris +3 in Michigan (51-48), Pennsylvania +2 (50-48) and Wisconsin +2 (50-48)

Emerson has Harris +1 in Nevada (49-48)

All caveats on polling and MOE are in play.
 
Good lord, are there ANY r's not running on anti-immigrant, anti-trans, etc? For some reason, the ABC night game between A&M and SC, there was an ad from Texas and Abbot, and it was the EXACT SAME message, said in the exact same way, that the r's are using here in Michigan. It's like the entire country has a single playbook for rs' and the actual relevant local issues don't mean anything?
 
Jimjamesak said:
Same thing here in Alaska. Some states (Iowa, Alaska, Kansas for example) could be a lot closer than the media and pollsters think.
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If that is the case (you know me and polling) then a lot of pundits are going to have a lot of egg on their face.

(No i don't buy she will win Iowa but he should not have to even sweat it and points to Haley voters still not voting for him)
 
Handyman said:
If that is the case (you know me and polling) then a lot of pundits are going to have a lot of egg on their face.

(No i don't buy she will win Iowa but he should not have to even sweat it and points to Haley voters still not voting for him)
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Ann Selzer is an A+ pollster.

I take it with a grain of salt, but if it plays out it would arguably show the other pollsters 1) overcorrected for prior errors (which is traditional and explains why polls never miss the same direction 3x in a row) and 2) are unwilling to be outliers and thus adjust their pools to match others, creating a self-aggregating herd that will all miss the same way.

Anecdotally, we took my daughter to a roller rink for a birthday party in small town Iowa today, and while the Trump signs were bigger, we actually saw more Harris signs. A friend was in Dubuque, which had one of the biggest Obama->Trump swings in the country, and they similarly saw more Harris signs there than Trump ones.

Do I think she ultimately wins Iowa? No. Could this mean the Dems pick up some state leg seats and hopefully 2 of the 4 Congressional seats? Sure. We could know early on whether the Des Moines based seat will flip. Polk County is normally very quick with their absentee votes reporting. The Dem needs to win that county by at least 40k to stand a chance at carrying the district, because every other county will go red. Absentee votes will need to be at least 30k in his favor.
 
unofan said:
Ann Selzer is an A+ pollster.

I take it with a grain of salt, but if it plays out it would arguably show the other pollsters 1) overcorrected for prior errors (which is traditional and explains why polls never miss the same direction 3x in a row) and 2) are unwilling to be outliers and thus adjust their pools to match others, creating a self-aggregating herd that will all miss the same way.

Anecdotally, we took my daughter to a roller rink for a birthday party in small town Iowa today, and while the Trump signs were bigger, we actually saw more Harris signs. A friend was in Dubuque, which had one of the biggest Obama->Trump swings in the country, and they similarly saw more Harris signs there than Trump ones.

Do I think she ultimately wins Iowa? No. Could this mean the Dems pick up some state leg seats and hopefully 2 of the 4 Congressional seats? Sure. We could know early on whether the Des Moines based seat will flip. Polk County is normally very quick with their absentee votes reporting. The Dem needs to win that county by at least 40k to stand a chance at carrying the district, because every other county will go red. Absentee votes will need to be at least 30k in his favor.
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Is Ann Selzer a local Iowa pollster? I know there was a reputable local Alaska pollster that had a similar kind of poll showing Alaska to be close and that was similarly dismissed by people.
 
As much as I would love to finally bury what's left of Nate Lead's career, I think that poll is likely more of a bellweather for what we can expect trendwise in WI-MI-PA.

Celebrate it for 90 seconds and get back to work.
 
unofan said:
Ann Selzer is an A+ pollster.

I take it with a grain of salt, but if it plays out it would arguably show the other pollsters 1) overcorrected for prior errors (which is traditional and explains why polls never miss the same direction 3x in a row) and 2) are unwilling to be outliers and thus adjust their pools to match others, creating a self-aggregating herd that will all miss the same way.

Anecdotally, we took my daughter to a roller rink for a birthday party in small town Iowa today, and while the Trump signs were bigger, we actually saw more Harris signs. A friend was in Dubuque, which had one of the biggest Obama->Trump swings in the country, and they similarly saw more Harris signs there than Trump ones.

Do I think she ultimately wins Iowa? No. Could this mean the Dems pick up some state leg seats and hopefully 2 of the 4 Congressional seats? Sure. We could know early on whether the Des Moines based seat will flip. Polk County is normally very quick with their absentee votes reporting. The Dem needs to win that county by at least 40k to stand a chance at carrying the district, because every other county will go red. Absentee votes will need to be at least 30k in his favor.
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Yeah I just don't buy Harris will win...but if it is close to true it is a very troubling sign across the board. I mean one of the final nails in Biden's coffin was internal polling showing Minnesota only +2 or 3. When reliable states fall into the MOE it means you have problems. Not that I doubt the Des Moines Paper...I have only heard good things over the years about them. I just think its probably Trump +2 if I was just guessing.

And while I said I don't buy the result, I do buy the trend because it matches what we are seeing in the Battleground States. Trump banking on low propensity voters and tripling down on their bigotry of everyone is turning off the Independents and the Haley Voters are wavering.

You already see pundits excuse making for why they will be wrong...even Nate Silver is talking about "Poll Herding" where everyone is just polling in ways that will lead to similar results. No one wants to admit that they may have it wrong. (in corporate media anyways)
 
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