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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

French Rage said:
Polymarket down to 52% Trump; was at 68% last week; at least a 5% drop after the Iowa poll. Betting markets are crap, mind you, but makes you wonder why it has folks sweating.

Also, Dem early votes passed the 400k "firewall" lead experts feel they need to counter Election Day GOP votes in PA late today. I mean, still a lot of guesswork there, but here's hoping.
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Now is the point where you will see those clowns who overbet early to set her as the underdog bet to get the odds they wanted. This whole thing is a scam.

Pennsylvania is going to be interesting to watch because I believe I heard that one of the areas where Election Day Voting is expected to be high is places like Allentown. (where they are taking all the coal from the ground...) Lots of Puerto Ricans there...
 
FWIW, in 2020, the majority of Iowa polls near the end were showing a dead heat between Biden and Trump...except Seltzer's. She had it +7 Trump. Trump won Iowa by 8.

In 2016, the other Iowa polls near the end were showing Trump ahead, but within the margin of error...except Seltzer's. She had it +7 Trump (with a lot of undecideds (46-39 Trump)). Trump won Iowa by 9.

If Harris wins Iowa, it will be a blood bath in more ways than one.
 
OMG everything SNL on Twitter when you try to search says Posts not loading. Elon is preventing people from posting about it!
 
unofan said:
Ann Selzer is an A+ pollster.

I take it with a grain of salt, but if it plays out it would arguably show the other pollsters 1) overcorrected for prior errors (which is traditional and explains why polls never miss the same direction 3x in a row) and 2) are unwilling to be outliers and thus adjust their pools to match others, creating a self-aggregating herd that will all miss the same way.

Anecdotally, we took my daughter to a roller rink for a birthday party in small town Iowa today, and while the Trump signs were bigger, we actually saw more Harris signs. A friend was in Dubuque, which had one of the biggest Obama->Trump swings in the country, and they similarly saw more Harris signs there than Trump ones.

Do I think she ultimately wins Iowa? No. Could this mean the Dems pick up some state leg seats and hopefully 2 of the 4 Congressional seats? Sure. We could know early on whether the Des Moines based seat will flip. Polk County is normally very quick with their absentee votes reporting. The Dem needs to win that county by at least 40k to stand a chance at carrying the district, because every other county will go red. Absentee votes will need to be at least 30k in his favor.
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Honestly, I buy it. Selzer hasn't missed Iowa by more than like 2 points in 20+ years.
 
If Selzer is right then we aren't talking about a 2012 style election...we are talking '08. You might be talking a severe Blue Wave...

I am here for it...but even my optimism has limits. But I won't lie I am starting to subscribe to Fade's "She wins all 7 Battleground States" theory based on early voting trends. Women are going to save The Republic.
 
Handyman said:
If Selzer is right then we aren't talking about a 2012 style election...we are talking '08. You might be talking a severe Blue Wave...

I am here for it...but even my optimism has limits. But I won't lie I am starting to subscribe to Fade's "She wins all 7 Battleground States" theory based on early voting trends. Women are going to save The Republic.
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The line in the sand has been drawn. It's just a matter of how close R's are willing to get to the line from this point on.

Their views won't change. Just their messaging and how they talk in public will.
 
Selzer's congressional followups has the Dem leading in districts 1 (Iowa City and Quad Cities) and 3 (Des Moines) by 16 and 7 points, respectively. And District 2 (Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and rest of the northeast) within a couple of points.

I don't believe for a second the district 1 race will be that much of a blowout, but it's a good sign it could flip.
 
One thing to keep an eye on- if there's a sudden supply of dumpy stock. Just saw something that he's somewhere near $2B in debt, and that could be solved if he sells stock of himself. But that value could be much, much lower on Wed- meaning he would have to declare bankruptcy again.
 
The cross tabs on the Selzer poll: Women of all ages: +20 Harris, 55+ women: +12 Harris. I suspect the 6 week abortion ban in Iowa being upheld is having an effect.
 
MichVandal said:
One thing to keep an eye on- if there's a sudden supply of dumpy stock. Just saw something that he's somewhere near $2B in debt, and that could be solved if he sells stock of himself. But that value could be much, much lower on Wed- meaning he would have to declare bankruptcy again.
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But....but.....Donnie said he wasn't gonna sell..................
 
Well there is no doubt he will in fact sell, or if he doesn't everyone else will. There is some people propping that stock up right now hedging he might still win. They don't care if they lose money because they have so much of it should be illegal. He needs to sell before they dump or he is in trouble. His followers are going to lose it all though...they think holding is the answer.

(if the price tanks before Trump can sell look for Musk to buy him out to merge it with Twitter)

On another note I figure we are about 6 months away (after a Harris Victory) of finding out how bad things got for the RNC after they ousted Ronna for Lara.
 
Handyman said:
Well there is no doubt he will in fact sell, or if he doesn't everyone else will. There is some people propping that stock up right now hedging he might still win. They don't care if they lose money because they have so much of it should be illegal. He needs to sell before they dump or he is in trouble. His followers are going to lose it all though...they think holding is the answer.

(if the price tanks before Trump can sell look for Musk to buy him out to merge it with Twitter)

On another note I figure we are about 6 months away (after a Harris Victory) of finding out how bad things got for the RNC after they ousted Ronna for Lara.
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Once this is all over, will Musk even bother taking dumpy's calls? If he looses, will he be able to help or do anything for elmo? And elmo seems of similar mind of dumpy, so he'll drop him like a hot potato.

The timing of the sale matters a lot for the orange man. He needs it more than his worshipers.

And I know he will sell, I don't think it will be before Tuesday night.
 
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