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2024 Election Thread

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dxmnkd316 said:
I'm not sure that's entirely true. When you account for turnout of the last several elections prior, you still come out about 10,000,000 votes for Biden that weren't there for democrats in the three to five elections preceding 2020. You get to about 68-71 million votes. Biden got 81 million. Donald Trump still got 74 million in 2020, up 12 million. Biden was up 16 million from Clinton and Obama.

I don't have the time to look at state-by-state and party turnout, but I'll admit those certainly could prove you correct.
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Its been a while (and I am very sleep deprived so I could easily be wrong) but I am pretty the disparity was due to a high amount of younger people voting than usual and a larger than expected female vote or female shift because of what Trump did to SCOTUS and the impending death of Roe. There was more but the Dem GOTV stuff crushed in the cities especially in the swing states. Whether it was Stacey Abrams signing up rural Blacks or Dems all over the campuses making sure students stayed engaged (and in line!) this was an effort I havent seen since Clinton used MTV and Arsenio Hall to get people engaged.

Your numbers prove the Cheney GOPers never left Trump en masse. His vote total went UP and we know no Dems switched. If the GOP Original Flavor was deserting him he would not have increased his total he would have lost ground or at best treaded water assuming more crazies offset the Never Trumpers. When asked very few of the GOPers who "hate" Trump voted for him in 2020 and the ones who didn't almost always said they did not vote for Biden either because they think Dems are evil. The majority of the non-MAGAts are just Chris Christie types who rail against Donald but voted for him twice and likely will again.

I will note I have anecdotal evidence of GOPers who switched parties (GFs rich relatives who are super educated so they hate how stupid he is) but it was just two of them the rest went hard for Trump despite not really liking him. Their hatred of Dems (in Illinois and WI) far outweighed their dislike of him and they for the most part think he did a great job.
 
Swansong said:
I'm not saying Biden shouldn't embrace a progressive platform. I'm not saying we should just say "don't care, we're moving on and moving on in this direction".

My point is that we - democracy-loving people that don't want another Trump administration - need to be aware of any non-Trump alternative.
  • RFK Jr will mostly pull from Trump votes because he's a loon and is tracking towards the MAGA chuds.
  • Liz Cheney will pull Trump votes, some of whom would have gone to Biden, some of whom would have been no-votes. The amount of either is up for debate. I contend that she would pull many Biden votes from non-MAGA legacy Republicans who are disgusted by Trump and might vote Biden.
  • No Labels Party would mostly pull from those middle voters who despite Trump but get all weird about voting for a Democrat. This, to me, is much more an issue than a Liz Cheney "true, legacy, principled Conservative" candidacy. I absolutely agree with The Lincoln Project that a No Labels candidate virtually guarantees another Trump win.
Look, I was one of those "used to be a Republican voter who switched to Libertarian" people. Since I live in a firmly blue state, my vote didn't matter much and I didn't really need to think much about throwing my vote away. But after 4 years of Trump and 8ish months of Covid, I stopped being that and fully embraced voting Democrat. There are lots of me, and lots of me on the same trajectory but at different speeds. Giving these people a non-Biden, non-Trump option is bad for Biden.
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The first 2 I am not worried about because the people voting for them were never voting for Biden. Especially RFK Jr. the only people voting for him are people my parents age who loved his father (I have heard that too many times since he announced) or people so crazy they don't think Trump went far enough on COVID. Since I don't think he will even make a serious push once the Primaries start I would rather just let those crackpots huddle together and post memes on Twatter.

Liz is a fraud grifting money off the Left George Santos style. If she really was patriotic as she pretends to be she wouldn't run and risk the very thing she is warning about. She has zero chance to win...she couldn't even win the primary in a state her family owns! Kinzinger and her should endorse Biden.

The No Labels Party could hurt a little...but I think people are wise now to the Jill Stein Maneuver.
 
Regarding the last election:

Both Trump and Biden were able to bring new voters into the political process in 2020. The 19% of 2020 voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 split roughly evenly between the two candidates (49% Biden vs. 47% Trump). However, as with voters overall, there was a substantial age divide within this group. Among those under age 30 who voted in 2020 but not in either of the two previous elections, Biden led 59% to 33%, while Trump won among new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55% to 42%. Younger voters also made up an outsize share of these voters: Those under age 30 made up 38% of new or irregular 2020 voters, though they represented just 15% of all 2020 voters.
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One somewhat unusual aspect of the 2016 election was the relatively high share of voters (nearly 6%) who voted for one of the third-party candidates (mostly the Libertarian and Green Party nominees), a fact many observers attributed to the relative unpopularity of both major party candidates. By comparison, just 2% of voters chose a third-party candidate in 2020. Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% opting for a third-party candidate. Among the 5% of Republicans who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, a majority (70%) supported Trump in 2020, but 18% backed Biden. Among the 5% of Democrats who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, just 8% supported Trump in 2020 while 85% voted for Biden.
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There's more but that's enough C&P for now.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
100%. In this case the winning move IS not to play.
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After exiting Facebook in Jan 2017, Xitter is all I have left. I won't bother with Threads since Zuck owns it and he already warehoused enough of my data. Since I don't have the attention span of a gnat, TikTok, Insta (also Zuck), and Snapchat are not for me. Zoomers can have those.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
After exiting Facebook in Jan 2017, Xitter is all I have left. I won't bother with Threads since Zuck owns it and he already warehoused enough of my data. Since I don't have the attention span of a gnat, TikTok, Insta (also Zuck), and Snapchat are not for me. Zoomers can have those.
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Accounts for facebook and twitter exist for me, created long before I realized just how much I'd hate them and neither has so much as a single post, like, post forwarded or friend followed. So the entirety of my "social media" is here, and a similar, team centric forum somewhere else where most of the posters are never-trumpers (didn't even need to learn lessons after voting for him in 2016 -- they were literally NEVER-trumpers). They still adhere to a lot of conservative politics, but virtually none are election or covid-deniers, they believe in science, and a surprisingly large number lean pragmatically libertarian on things like abortion.

Of the many things brought to bare by a hyper-connected, digital world where the "computer" (in whatever form it takes) has become entirely ubiquitous, social media is by leaps and bounds the worst thing to come of all of that. On balance, I'd equate it to what warfare does to the emergency medical/trauma field. Maybe some things get a trial-by-fire and we learn a little about some things a little quicker than we would otherwise, but put up against all of the destruction and misery, it's a net loss in my opinion.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
After exiting Facebook in Jan 2017, Xitter is all I have left. I won't bother with Threads since Zuck owns it and he already warehoused enough of my data. Since I don't have the attention span of a gnat, TikTok, Insta (also Zuck), and Snapchat are not for me. Zoomers can have those.
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Bluesky is finally starting to blossom. But there's no sports yet which kind of holds it back.
 
The dog caught the car.

Organizers in nine states are aiming to put abortion rights measures on the ballot next year, including presidential swing states like Nevada and Arizona, as well blue states such as New York that will be key to Democrats reclaiming the House majority.

Newly available turnout data suggests those measures could be "the most potent mobilizing force in politics,"
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WeAreNDHockey said:
Hopefully a winning strategy. If issue 1 passed in blood-red Ohio (there was never much real doubt, and it won by 13 points) these issues can pass almost anywhere. And hopefully they drive sane voters to the polls who might also cast a sane vote on other things.
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Angry people are more motivated than voters satisfied with the status quo. The GOP managed to kill its golden goose: they could have had their derps line up by the millions for all eternity snarling and shouting about how GAWD HATES THE BABY KILLERS!!!11! but they f-cked it all up. Now women terrified of these authoritarian baboons will be flipping every marginal seat blue.

Thank f-ck for the ineptitude of conservatives.

We have to survive another 3-5 election cycles until the Morlocks are permanently non-competitive nationally, and the Thumpers have given us at least 2 and likely more. And no woman with an IQ north of 70 will ever vote Republican again. (Which does mean they can still hold the South and Mountain West solidly.)
 
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I said after Dobbs this should be what the Dems do...and the Midterms and this years elections proved it. When Abortion is on the ballot people wait in line for hours to vote. Put it up everywhere you can and watch the carnage!
 
We're all aware of Jack Smith pushing Trump's Presidential Immunity in front of the Supreme Court to avoid delaying appeals through every court on their way to the top, but it opened up an interesting paradox for the conservative SCOTUS members.

If they say, "No, the president is not immune," then they will be going against their handlers and the Trump crowds.

But if they say "Yes, the president is immune," then...

.... that leaves Joe Biden 12 whole months to go on the largest crime spree known to man.
 
Handyman said:
Meanwhile Trump said immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country...it sounded better in the original German.
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Funny when I think of immigrants I always think of this.........

Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!
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Unfortunately no one in the media does.
 
aparch said:
We're all aware of Jack Smith pushing Trump's Presidential Immunity in front of the Supreme Court to avoid delaying appeals through every court on their way to the top, but it opened up an interesting paradox for the conservative SCOTUS members.

If they say, "No, the president is not immune," then they will be going against their handlers and the Trump crowds.

But if they say "Yes, the president is immune," then...

.... that leaves Joe Biden 12 whole months to go on the largest crime spree known to man.
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The fallout from that ruling could be almost as bad for the conservatives as Dobbs was because of what Trump will say and do if he somehow is granted immunity. The fact they likely won't ule until June delays the trial anyways so they can find a technicality to rule against him and he still "won" because the trial won't start likely until after the election.
 
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