2023 D3 Bracketology

[altazo]

You and Sir Nubs should climb back into your hole. The worst type of fans

Good luck to you and the Utica Pioneers!

I was just pointing out the obvious. Don’t worry about where the Frozen Four will be held - first get there.

 

[nefan]

You can cross Hobart and Curry off that list for sure as their facilities won't meet the standards.

I'm still curious if they'll deem Endicott worthy and who knows what is going on with Utica with the AHL conflicts.

I'm also 95 percent sure that it's supposed to be "highest remaining seed from the East" this year, which would theorectically take Adrian, Point and Augsburg off the list.

I think the real list is:

Utica (maybe?)
Endicott (dicey at best)
Plattsburgh (first no doubt about it they can do it no problem)
Plymouth State (maybe?)
UNE (maybe?)
Norwich (second no doubt about it they can do it)

Why cross off Curry? Their facility is nice. Also has two sheets and plenty of locker rooms. Not sure if they put in a bid to host finals, but would be just as nice as playing at Endicott, Plymouth, or UNE. Personally I like a bigger venue than all of these facilities. Better student-athlete experience to get away from their normal facilities they play in.

 

[KrbFlint]

Why cross off Curry? Their facility is nice. Also has two sheets and plenty of locker rooms. Not sure if they put in a bid to host finals, but would be just as nice as playing at Endicott, Plymouth, or UNE. Personally I like a bigger venue than all of these facilities. Better student-athlete experience to get away from their normal facilities they play in.

Provided the people come out. Nothing worse than watching it played in a “big rink” in front of a bunch of empty seats.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Provided the people come out. Nothing worse than watching it played in a “big rink” in front of a bunch of empty seats.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. Attendance potential plays a near zero requirement to host a championship weekend at a campus site.

And this year the committee is just going to be happy that anyone can host…

 

[Russell Jaslow]

You and Sir Nubs should climb back into your hole. The worst type of fans

altazo is not wrong…

 

[Russell Jaslow]

I like my bracket too from bracket integrity standpoint...but we all know that means diddly when it comes to this process.

I think Pioneer's bracket will likely get fought HARD by the committee and push back against the NCAA...but if the NCAA rep has their marching orders as if its possible to put a bracket together with only one guaranteed flight, that's the bracket....

I really believe the committee will make it as easy as possible for Utica to make it to the frozen four, because that’s the only reasonable site to host it this year.

Plus, the D3 football committee were allowed to fly more teams than usual to maintain better bracket integrity. Will be interesting to see if that permission opens up for other sports.

For those reasons, I lean towards Derek’s bracket.

 

[KrbFlint]

I said it before and I’ll say it again. Attendance potential plays a near zero requirement to host a championship weekend at a campus site.

And this year the committee is just going to be happy that anyone can host…

I was responding directly to the comment about the players playing in “different” places than they already play in as it relates to the student-athlete experience.

 

[llama]

OK - looking for a learning opportunity here. I am not complaining or disputing any data....just trying to understand how this works.

Hobart has a higher (unadjusted) win %, and a higher SOS rating than Utica. Yet, Utica has a higher "adjusted" win %, which seems to be how they are ranked above Hobart. That seems counter-intuitive.

I think I heard once that if a team wins a game against an opponent where that win actually lowers their RPI rating (i.e. very weak or a non-D3 team), the game is removed from the calculations. Is that is what is going on here?

 

[Pioneer247]

OK - looking for a learning opportunity here. I am not complaining or disputing any data....just trying to understand how this works.

Hobart has a higher (unadjusted) win %, and a higher SOS rating than Utica. Yet, Utica has a higher "adjusted" win %, which seems to be how they are ranked above Hobart. That seems counter-intuitive.

I think I heard once that if a team wins a game against an opponent where that win actually lowers their RPI rating (i.e. very weak or a non-D3 team), the game is removed from the calculations. Is that is what is going on here?

Yes, the adjusted RPI removes the penalty for a win vs a weak opponent. Then there's the QWB, which adds to your RPI for beating good teams. Utica's wins vs Plymouth State and Oswego, plus their bad wins counting for a net 0 because they're not factored in, was enough to give them the highest RPI

RPI is not, and will never be a perfect system, which is why D1 basketball just doesn't use it anymore.

 

[Fishman'81]

OK - looking for a learning opportunity here. I am not complaining or disputing any data....just trying to understand how this works.

Hobart has a higher (unadjusted) win %, and a higher SOS rating than Utica. Yet, Utica has a higher "adjusted" win %, which seems to be how they are ranked above Hobart. That seems counter-intuitive.

I think I heard once that if a team wins a game against an opponent where that win actually lowers their RPI rating (i.e. very weak or a non-D3 team), the game is removed from the calculations. Is that is what is going on here?

Would you provide a link to the SOS numbers? Can't find them. (I miss the KRACH.)

Thanks!

 

[BoSox3066]

If by chance Endicott and Curry are both in the FF youd think they could find a rink in Eastern Mass thats suitable. Theres only like 15 D1 teams in a 60 mile radius plus the pro teams.

Especially if by some chance Utica went down as well

 

[Pioneer247]

If by chance Endicott and Curry are both in the FF youd think they could find a rink in Eastern Mass thats suitable. Theres only like 15 D1 teams in a 60 mile radius plus the pro teams.

Especially if by some chance Utica went down as well

No, NCAA rules are that if a particular school is chosen to host, it has to be at the home rink that they've played at all year

 

[spwood]

If by chance Endicott and Curry are both in the FF youd think they could find a rink in Eastern Mass thats suitable. Theres only like 15 D1 teams in a 60 mile radius plus the pro teams.

Especially if by some chance Utica went down as well

Games have to be played the team’s home arena for more than 50% of their home games. The #1 seed will have priority on hosting, based on whether they put in a bid to host and the facilities meet minimum standards.

 

[Fishman'81]

This is going to sound insane to many of you D-3 mavens, but here goes...

Seed and site the tournament games on the basis of chalk.

If certain programs (or the NCAA) aren't willing to foot the bill, let either of them opt-out, then the next team-up willing to participate can opt-in.

Nothing should be set in stone aside from equity.

 

[llama]

Would you provide a link to the SOS numbers? Can't find them. (I miss the KRACH.)

Thanks!

The SOS data I am referring to is in the RPI data table...the far right columns have the SOS and SOS ranking.

https://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi/d-iii-men/

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Given what they did on the women's side with the potential of the flight in the QF round, I don't know how this isn't the bracket. Potential Bowdoin to Hobart game sneaks just inside the 500 miles at 487. Adrian to Point same thing... 490 miles.

First Round

UNE at Plymouth
Augsburg at Stevens Point
Norwich at Plattsburgh
Bowdoin at Curry

Quarterfinals

Plymouth/UNE winner at Utica
Point/Augsburg winner at Adrian
Platty/Norwich winner at Endicott
Curry/Bowdoin winner at Hobart

Semifinals

Plymouth/UNE/Utica winner vs. Point/Augsburg/Adrian
Platty/Norwich/Endicott winner vs. Curry/Bowdoin/Hobart

Only have one potential flight in the quarterfinal round and that's only if Augsburg beats Point.

1 minimum flight total, 2 maximum in this scenario as long as the FF is in the East, which it's supposed to be.

 

[BoSox3066]

So Utica has played more than half its home games in the AHL rink? That i did not realize.

Stupid rule that will always limit their host options then

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

OK - looking for a learning opportunity here. I am not complaining or disputing any data....just trying to understand how this works.

Hobart has a higher (unadjusted) win %, and a higher SOS rating than Utica. Yet, Utica has a higher "adjusted" win %, which seems to be how they are ranked above Hobart. That seems counter-intuitive.

I think I heard once that if a team wins a game against an opponent where that win actually lowers their RPI rating (i.e. very weak or a non-D3 team), the game is removed from the calculations. Is that is what is going on here?

Yes, wins that would actually lower your RPI are ignored for that calculation. But a couple more things go into the adjustment of the RPI:

1. OT wins are counted as 0.67 instead of 1.00, and OT losses count as 0.33 (I could be wrong… the women’s manual specifies these numbers, the men’s manual just says “overtime adjustment to calculation applied,” but I have to imagine the math would be the same for both genders…)

2. Multiply the result of the game (1.00, 0.67, 0.50, 0.33, or 0.00) by 1.2 for road games and 0.8 for home games.

 

[Bartman]

Enjoyed reading all of the posts speculating on the NCAA bracket , but glad to have the real bracket announced today. After watching parts of the league tournament finals, there are quite a few teams that could pull this off.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

So Utica has played more than half its home games in the AHL rink? That i did not realize.

Stupid rule that will always limit their host options then

Utica has played all of their home games throughout their history at the Aud.

It's called campus site (re: regular home rink, even if it's not actually on campus) for a reason. If they wanted a neutral site, they would have selected a neutral site.