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2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

brookyone said:
Bingo! A true barometer of his Zeropersonal&professionalethicsandmoralityness.


As it happens...I did read the article. If anything my interpretation of it's implications are vastly different than yours.


Yeah...his Butt****the99percentness has proven time and time again he would never conceive of such a scumbag dirtball plan of operation...:rolleyes:
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"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery."
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Old Pio said:
Troll or child. I'm still trying to make up my mind.
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But you detract from the real beauty of that question: If he's either one, you don't have to respond to him.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Old Pio said:
You must have been the star during middle school lunch period, right?
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Oh...that hurt! Would that be better or worse than imagining oneself to be the star of the USCHO conservatard nation?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

joecct said:
In the end, I'll hug my elephant. You can kiss your a..
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The ladies of the chorale and the Voltaire Society auxiliary are just "shocked. . .shocked" that anyone could possibly view the world from a different perspective. To be fair, they've been leaderless these last several weeks after Kepler was arrested for mopery. High scool japes is about all they have left.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

joecct said:
In the end, I'll hug my elephant. You can kiss your a..
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I'll just hug the Donkey if it's all the same to you. Wouldn't you have to pull your head out the Elephant's *** to hug said Elephant...in the end?

Old Pio said:
The ladies of the chorale and the Voltaire Society auxiliary are just "shocked. . .shocked" that anyone could possibly view the world from a different perspective. To be fair, they've been leaderless these last several weeks after Kepler was arrested for mopery. High scool japes is about all they have left.
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The champion of irony from the glee club pseudo super hero.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Old Pio said:
The ladies of the chorale and the Voltaire Society auxiliary are just "shocked. . .shocked" that anyone could possibly view the world from a different perspective. To be fair, they've been leaderless these last several weeks after Kepler was arrested for mopery. High scool japes is about all they have left.
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Your jabs might hurt if anyone could understand them.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Gurtholfin said:
Your jabs might hurt if anyone could understand them.
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When I was back there in seminary school . . . wait, wrong album.

When I was in grade school, when kids were arguing and ran out of ideas, they usually started calling each other names. Some, of course, never did have ideas and used name calling from the get-go.
We didn't care--it was all fun.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

burd said:
When I was back there in seminary school . . . wait, wrong album.

When I was in grade school, when kids were arguing and ran out of ideas, they usually started calling each other names. Some, of course, never did have ideas and used name calling from the get-go.
We didn't care--it was all fun.
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... there was a person there who put forth the proposition...


YOU CANNOT PETITION THE LORD WITH PRAYER!
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

So I can't call Mitt his Bigickystinkybuttness then?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Schrödinger's <strike>cat</strike> election, indeed!

If I understand correctly, Nate Silver has practically guaranteed an Obama victory, while Dick Morris is calling for Romney to win something like 326 - 213 in the Electoral College and 53% - 46% in the popular vote.

When asked where he comes up with these numbers, he said something like
"I take the existing polls and burrow down in to the data. I find three things:
> the pollsters are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans
> Republicans are registering much more enthusiasm for their candidate than Democrats are for theirs
> I'm assuming that the undecideds will break 2:1 against the incumbent.
> after I make those adjustments, that's where I end up.?


Well, they can't both be right. We'll see by the end of next week, I guess (supposedly it will take up to ten days to count by hand the provisional ballots from Ohio).
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FreshFish said:
Schrödinger's <strike>cat</strike> election, indeed!

If I understand correctly, Nate Silver has practically guaranteed an Obama victory, while Dick Morris is calling for Romney to win something like 326 - 213 in the Electoral College and 53% - 46% in the popular vote.

When asked where he comes up with these numbers, he said something like
"I take the existing polls and burrow down in to the data. I find three things:
> the pollsters are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans
> Republicans are registering much more enthusiasm for their candidate than Democrats are for theirs
> I'm assuming that the undecideds will break 2:1 against the incumbent.
> after I make those adjustments, that's where I end up.?


Well, they can't both be right. We'll see by the end of next week, I guess (supposedly it will take up to ten days to count by hand the provisional ballots from Ohio).
Click to expand...

I mentioned Silver to a conservative friend of mine and that he had both predicted 49 of 50 states last election but also all 35 senate races. He said basicially 'yeah, well Dick Morris also predicted 49 of 50 states and is an amazing prognosticator'. But I have yet to find any evidence of what he predicted in 2008. So I Wiki'd Morris and got this as a comparison:

In a 2005 book on the 2008 presidential campaign, Morris stated that it was most likely that Hillary Clinton would face Condoleezza Rice for the presidency. Morris's critics reacted by mocking his mistaken predictions of past races.

Regarding the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, he initially stated that Howard Dean's candidacy could be written off right away. While ultimately vindicated, he had earlier discussed the likelihood of Dean defeating John Kerry after early strong showings by the former Vermont governor. Kerry defeated Dean and all his other rivals and won the nomination. Additionally, in a column in "The Hill" on June 22, 2005, Morris predicted that Hillary Clinton would face her "worst nightmare" in her 2006 Senate race against moderate Republican candidate Jeanine Pirro, whose campaign subsequently collapsed within a matter of two months after repeated crushing defeats in the opinion polls due to her husband's alleged mafia ties. He even went so far as to suggest that Clinton would "give up"[citation needed] and drop out to focus on her 2008 campaign.[25][26]

Morris elaborated that exit polls showed some Edwards voters were unsure if a woman or a Black American, in reference to then Democratic Primary front runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, could get elected to the Presidency for the first time in 2008.[28]
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FreshFish said:
Schrödinger's <strike>cat</strike> election, indeed!

If I understand correctly, Nate Silver has practically guaranteed an Obama victory, while Dick Morris is calling for Romney to win something like 326 - 213 in the Electoral College and 53% - 46% in the popular vote.

When asked where he comes up with these numbers, he said something like
"I take the existing polls and burrow down in to the data. I find three things:
> the pollsters are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans
> Republicans are registering much more enthusiasm for their candidate than Democrats are for theirs
> I'm assuming that the undecideds will break 2:1 against the incumbent.
> after I make those adjustments, that's where I end up.?


Well, they can't both be right. We'll see by the end of next week, I guess (supposedly it will take up to ten days to count by hand the provisional ballots from Ohio).
Click to expand...

So, in other words, Nate Silver is relying on the actual numbers, while Dick Morris and the GOP spin machine has to hope all of the polling, including Rassmussen (which has started falling in line with the rest in the last week), is wrong.

Which is essentially what Silver said on Saturday. Romney's 15% chance of winning in his model is essentially the probability of the polls all being wrong in favor of Obama (rather than some being off for Obama and others being off for Romney as one would actually expect).
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

RCP, PEC and 538 all have Obama with 303 this morning.

Earlier this week, Dick Morris had Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada with the incorrect number of electoral votes.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I just saw a passing headline that Nj residents can email their vote.
 
unofan said:
So, in other words, Nate Silver is relying on the actual numbers, while Dick Morris and the GOP spin machine has to hope all of the polling, including Rassmussen (which has started falling in line with the rest in the last week), is wrong.
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Because numbers are known to have a liberal bias. That's why you have to go with your gut like a real 'Merican.
 
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