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2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FlagDUDE08 said:
...and you think people who can't get to a polling place can get to a Kinko's?
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Somebody could do it for them. I'm sure it happens how with vote by mail. One of the local radio stations was interviewing prospective voters, and one of them was a young guy who is just becoming eligible to vote in this election. But then he recounts how the last couple previous elections he got his mom to get him her mail in ballot and then he filled it in and sent it in.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I predict that the Presidential election won't be decided until Nov 20 at the earliest, as it will take that long to count by hand Ohio's 200,000 provisional ballots, and then add in some additional challenges or "widespread irregularities" in another state or two.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Rover, you asked for predictions. FWIW, I gave you mine, and I now I give you someone else's.




From Peggy Noonan, not one of my favorite writers (sometimes vapid, occasionally insightful).

We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know.

...

Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

...

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us. [emphasis added]

....

Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.

I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.
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A supplemental quasi-prediction from me (as it doesn't really "predict" the outcome): the higher the turnout, the better Romney's chances.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FreshFish said:
A supplemental quasi-prediction from me (as it doesn't really "predict" the outcome): the higher the turnout, the better Romney's chances.
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I think you've got that backwards. The fewer young people who show up, the better for Romney. We know that the angry old conservatives will show up to the polls this time. If youth turnout drops significantly this year (as we're all thinking it will), then Obama is likely toast.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I think you've got that backwards. The fewer young people who show up, the better for Romney. We know that the angry old conservatives will show up to the polls this time. If youth turnout drops significantly this year (as we're all thinking it will), then Obama is likely toast.
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We'll see, I guess.

Depends upon how young you mean by "young." Will it resemble the switch from 1976 to 1980, in which a lot of first-time voters who went for Carter (because he was so earnest and sincere!) became second-time voters who went for Reagan (who was so upbeat and practical)?

Optimsim resonates the most among the young, no?

This race to many is about opportunity vs regulation. Which of those two do you think will entice the young voter more?




Finally, for anyone who's been paying attention, young adults are deliberately overcharged under PPACA to keep costs down for older people. How will that dynamic play out, do you think?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

dxmnkd316 said:
Except that Colorado has seen significant population growth in Obama's main counties in Colorado while the Republican counties have been relatively stagnant or have experienced a decrease in population. Only El Paso saw an increase in population (among significant Republican counties).

Virginia is actually trending Romney and it crossed the even line about three weeks ago. So I put this one in Romney's basket.

* Disclaimer: I've only had about 10 minutes to look at the CO maps so be forewarned.
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While there certainly has been population growth that favors the President, I would argue that Republicans are more energized in Colorado this time around than in 2008. In 2008, a lot of conservatives (I'm basically surrounded by them :)) were split between Obama and McCain, largely because they did not like McCain and Obama was an interesting candidate. This time around, there seems to be far more support for Romney than there ever was for McCain. I'm sure there are a variety of reasons why that is, but I think the early voting numbers were important and show this to be much more than just my imagination.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if Colorado voted for Obama...I think it will be close, but I would be willing to do a friendly wager that Romney does better in Colorado than he does in Virginia. Saying that, I also wouldn't be surprised if Romney were to win Virginia, just that I think Virginia is more likely to go for Obama than Colorado.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FreshFish said:
We'll see, I guess.

Depends upon how young you mean by "young." Will it resemble the switch from 1976 to 1980, in which a lot of first-time voters who went for Carter (because he was so earnest and sincere!) became second-time voters who went for Reagan (who was so upbeat and practical)?

Optimsim resonates the most among the young, no?

This race to many is about opportunity vs regulation. Which of those two do you think will entice the young voter more?




Finally, for anyone who's been paying attention, young adults are deliberately overcharged under PPACA to keep costs down for older people. How will that dynamic play out, do you think?
Click to expand...

When is the last time the under 25 vote went Republican? That should include the vast majority of first and second time voters.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Somebody who believes in vote early and vote often...

A6tddsgCMAAsHt_.jpg:large
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FreshFish said:
We'll see, I guess.

Depends upon how young you mean by "young." Will it resemble the switch from 1976 to 1980, in which a lot of first-time voters who went for Carter (because he was so earnest and sincere!) became second-time voters who went for Reagan (who was so upbeat and practical)?

Optimsim resonates the most among the young, no?

This race to many is about opportunity vs regulation. Which of those two do you think will entice the young voter more?
Click to expand...

There will almost certainly be some crossover among those who are a few years out of college and still unemployed. The question is, how much?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I'm hopeful but not necessarily optimistic that Romney will win. {Insert favorite election analysis cliches here.}
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
While there certainly has been population growth that favors the President, I would argue that Republicans are more energized in Colorado this time around than in 2008. In 2008, a lot of conservatives (I'm basically surrounded by them :)) were split between Obama and McCain, largely because they did not like McCain and Obama was an interesting candidate. This time around, there seems to be far more support for Romney than there ever was for McCain. I'm sure there are a variety of reasons why that is, but I think the early voting numbers were important and show this to be much more than just my imagination.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if Colorado voted for Obama...I think it will be close, but I would be willing to do a friendly wager that Romney does better in Colorado than he does in Virginia. Saying that, I also wouldn't be surprised if Romney were to win Virginia, just that I think Virginia is more likely to go for Obama than Colorado.
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I wouldn't make any kind of wager on this election in any circumstance (save for the fact that Scooby thinks Romney is going to win, which we all know is a bit anyways). I have a better chance putting it all on double zero.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Up to 7 hour wait times to vote. In this country...


Nothing to see here!
 
FreshFish said:
We'll see, I guess.

Depends upon how young you mean by "young." Will it resemble the switch from 1976 to 1980, in which a lot of first-time voters who went for Carter (because he was so earnest and sincere!) became second-time voters who went for Reagan (who was so upbeat and practical)?

Optimsim resonates the most among the young, no?

This race to many is about opportunity vs regulation. Which of those two do you think will entice the young voter more?




Finally, for anyone who's been paying attention, young adults are deliberately overcharged under PPACA to keep costs down for older people. How will that dynamic play out, do you think?
Click to expand...

1) Jimmy Carter vs Ronald Reagan took place 32 years ago. Those "young" voters you speak of from that era are now 60.

2) You think younger voters are going to vote GOP because of the ACA, yet Paul Ryan's own budget gives a free pass to those over 55 from paying anything towards getting our fiscal house in order...all the while screwing those under 55 with all of the bills? Okaaaayyyy...

This election is simple. The GOP is the party of old white people. So, the question becomes how many old white people will turn out in proportion to the total population of voters? I don't have that answer yet, but every GOP model that's been shared with the public shows the total % of "non-white" vote either staying flat or going down...something it hasn't done since 1984 I think. On the flip side, Romney has to do better with whites than Bush I did vs Dukakis in '88. Its all possible I suppose. Not sure how likely.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Sunday said:

Romney 21
Obama 13

Or, to quote the loud guy at the bar that I frequent during NFL game days: "TOUCHDOWN CAROLINA!!!" (think in the style of the announcer in the movie Remember the Titans)

The only time Washington losing has NOT seen the incumbent lose is in 2004, although exception was put into place because Gore had won the popular vote.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

FlagDUDE08 said:
Sunday said:

Romney 21
Obama 13

Or, to quote the loud guy at the bar that I frequent during NFL game days: "TOUCHDOWN CAROLINA!!!" (think in the style of the announcer in the movie Remember the Titans)

The only time Washington losing has NOT seen the incumbent lose is in 2004, although exception was put into place because Gore had won the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Tell that to President Kerry. He won by a 2-touchdown landslide. :p:D:D
 
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