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118th Congress - Neutered Dog Attempts to Legislate

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Agreed. I'd set the likelihood of a minority party speaker somewhere south of 1%.


And the only reason it's even that high is that the party is utterly floundering right now, and there is the slimmest possibility that we get some three way vote split between Gym, Stefanik/Scalese and Trump or something absurd like that where none will give in, and the Dems remain unified behind Jeffries.
 
Swansong said:
Agreed. I'd set the likelihood of a minority party speaker somewhere south of 1%.


And the only reason it's even that high is that the party is utterly floundering right now, and there is the slimmest possibility that we get some three way vote split between Gym, Stefanik/Scalese and Trump or something absurd like that where none will give in, and the Dems remain unified behind Jeffries.
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With how this is playing out, the above will happen and like 3-4 R's would "hit the wrong button" and then claim "FRAUD!!11!1". But they would actually somehow legitimately be confused somehow and vote for Jeffries.
 
SJHovey said:
Just my opinion, but the chances of a minority party speaker aren't anywhere close to 33%, or even 25%.

If we should know anything about Congress right now it's that politics is number 1, over all other matters, by a huge, huge margin. A handful of members of the Republican caucus were willing to cut their own throats and grind the government to a halt over politics. The Democratic caucus was willing to happily sit by and watch them do it, for political purposes.

It would be an interesting situation, and I suppose if it only takes 1 person to move to remove them it might seem inconsequential, but I don't see it happening.
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Yes, cause it's the Democrats job to save the Republicans when they're imploding due to their own incompetence.
 
Swansong said:
Agreed. I'd set the likelihood of a minority party speaker somewhere south of 1%.


And the only reason it's even that high is that the party is utterly floundering right now, and there is the slimmest possibility that we get some three way vote split between Gym, Stefanik/Scalese and Trump or something absurd like that where none will give in, and the Dems remain unified behind Jeffries.
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1% seems about right.
 
Yeah the idea that the Democrats should have saved Kevin McCarthy - who effectively told them all that he was lying to the derps (while obviously lying to the Dems) - is absurd. There's no honor among thieves and all, but again, you never saw this with any other Speaker before.

I'm not the biggest AOC fan, but she's right. It's not the Democrats' job to save the GOP from themselves. McCarthy poisoned the waters here. All of them. In his own party and out of it. And he's paying for it.
 
I never said minority party. I said five GOPers in Biden+X% districts jump ship.

From 538, not sure if these are old numbers because their new site on ABC is a complete disaster. It's like a mid-90s webpage. Junk everywhere, no navigation.

All of these are GOPers:
Valadao (CA) - D+10.9
Garcia (CA) - D+10.1
Kim (CA) - D+10.1
Katko (NY) - D+9.0
Bacon (NE) - D+6.6 (dubious)
Fitzpatrick (PA) - D+5.8 (already votes 70% w/ dems)
Van Duyne (TX) - D+5.4
Flores (TX) - D+4.8

Ok, so Katko and Flores are no longer members.
 
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The only way to get a “minority” speaker is if the number of Republicans drop their party affiliation and go I. And the chances of that happening are very slim.
 
Jimjamesak said:
The only way to get a “minority” speaker is if the number of Republicans drop their party affiliation and go I. And the chances of that happening are very slim.
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When these purple/blue district Rs start getting flooded with "I didn't send you shut things down the two months before christmas" I guess we'll see.
 
Well, Trump has endorsed Gym Jordan, so that's about that.

Dennis Hastert, Jim Jordan... it's like Republicans have a bit of a thing for kid touchers and their protectors or something.
 
The rank and file of the House GOP had to complain about a Fox News "televised debate" over the Speakership with the top 2-3 candidates to get them to cancel it. They can't help but want to air their soiled laundry.
 
bronconick said:
The rank and file of the House GOP had to complain about a Fox News "televised debate" over the Speakership with the top 2-3 candidates to get them to cancel it. They can't help but want to air their soiled laundry.
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I'd have watch just to see what was said, ha ha ha...
 
Swansong said:
Allegedly, McCarthy is considering resigning from congress.

Dude gets chased all the way out by god damned Matt Gaetz? My god. "Neutered dog" is being generous. What an absolute empty suit.
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Huh. So much for being a representative of his constituents. He was only there for the prestige. Pelosi didn't resign when she had to give up the speaker position.
 
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