'09-'10 D-III Bracketology

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Well we all know its coming west anyway....which unless Middlebury switches regions it won't happen... I have recieved 98% confirmation that it will be in the west region this year

Say What??? Who is the one that is waffling 2% -- LadyFalconsFan or FalconsAnnouncer????

 

[LadyFalconsFan]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

i'm pretty sure you're not talking about me. idk what i would be waffling about

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What??? Who is the one that is waffling 2% -- LadyFalconsFan or FalconsAnnouncer????

no my source is on the SSSC and I don't want to say 100% just in case he/she lied to me

 

[nbound]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Depending on who loses today in the MIAC and NCHA championships, and the NC$$ tries to save money, Which of the Western teams Lake Forest, UWRF, UWS,GAC or St Catherines(I know we have to wait to see who wins) gets the pool C bid or is this the year that the NCAA spends the money to make it a 5-2 split ?

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Depending on who loses today in the MIAC and NCHA championships, and the NC$$ tries to save money, Which of the Western teams Lake Forest, UWRF, UWS,GAC or St Catherines(I know we have to wait to see who wins) gets the pool C bid or is this the year that the NCAA spends the money to make it a 5-2 split ?

I'd say if GAC and Superior win, River Falls gets in. If River Falls and Gustavus win Lake Forest gets in. If St. Kate and Superior win...Gustavus is in.

 

[notfromaroundhere]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Here is my take on what the NCAA is going to do considering this week's results.

Quite frankly it is difficult to take a 3rd team from the west given that the top "3rd team candidate" LF didn't make the NCHA final. If they had, the NCAA's work would have been a lot easier.

NCAA will keep it out west by flying the loser of the Trinity/Amherst tilt west and if that team wins midweek, they hotel it for a few more games and drive into the other western team which will host the tournament.

Keeps the top 7 teams in the tourney and has a western host who will actually play on their home ice.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I was going to use this post as a projection of what will happen based on the outcome of the NESCAC Championship, but after looking over the numbers, it seems that it does not matter what happens. The bracket does not really change.

    Elmira vs Lake Forest
WIN      0.8269  1           0.8261  0
OWP      0.5746  1           0.4606  0
OOP      0.5200  1           0.5150  0
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
RNK     6- 4- 1  1          2- 2- 3  0
============================================
PTS              4                   1

    Lake Forest vs Trinity
WIN      0.8261  0           0.8400  1
OWP      0.4606  0           0.4897  1
OOP      0.5150  1           0.5119  0
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
RNK     2- 2- 3  0          3- 2- 1  1
============================================
PTS              1                   3

Looking at these comparisons, Elmira wins that hands down, even with a loss to PSU tomorrow.

Breaking down the LFC/Trinity scenario, with a loss to Amherst, Trinity's win% will drop, but their SOS will increase. The RNK will become .500, even with LFC. The common ops will likely tip the scale in Trinity's favor. However, if the do decide to go to secondary criteria, this brings into play LFC's win vs. Bowdoin and loss to UMB. Trinity went a combined 4-0-0 against those two teams. Trinity also has the edge in last 25% of the season.

That said, here is what you can expect the bracket to look like regardless of what happens tomorrow.

Plattsburgh-bye
NEC/Norwich @ Amherst
Trinity @ Elmira
UWRF @ GAC (winner hosts the FF)

I certainly reserve the right to adjust these projections once all the games are played, but I do not see anything changing.

 

[nbound]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

That said, here is what you can expect the bracket to look like regardless of what happens tomorrow.

Plattsburgh-bye
NEC/Norwich @ Amherst
Trinity @ Elmira
UWRF @ GAC (winner hosts the FF)

I certainly expect Plattsburgh to win the whole thing.
Certainly hope it does not play out the way you say with only two western teams in it. Would rather see them play eastern teams so the west does not eliminate each other and leave it wide open for the east again. Wouldn't want too many western teams in it. it might reduce the easts chances. Heck if they do it that way the NC$$ could have saved a boatload of money by having the tourny out east and shipping only one western team to it rather than shipping all those eastern teams out west.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I certainly expect Plattsburgh to win the whole thing.
Certainly hope it does not play out the way you say with only two western teams in it. Would rather see them play eastern teams so the west does not eliminate each other and leave it wide open for the east again. Wouldn't want too many western teams in it. it might reduce the easts chances. Heck if they do it that way the NC$$ could have saved a boatload of money by having the tourny out east and shipping only one western team to it rather than shipping all those eastern teams out west.

I'm fairly certain Lake Forest is in...Amherst should win tomorrow and then it comes down to Lake Forest/Trinity....really a coin flip. It probably would have helped lake forest to have that 3rd place game today and win. Quality western teams have been left out for a decade because of money...its the east's turn to feel that sting.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I'm fairly certain Lake Forest is in...Amherst should win tomorrow and then it comes down to Lake Forest/Trinity....really a coin flip. It probably would have helped lake forest to have that 3rd place game today and win. Quality western teams have been left out for a decade because of money...its the east's turn to feel that sting.

You have to make your conference finals if you want a bid IMHO, especially with only two at-large bids and five conferences.

As great of a season as Lake Forest had, their conference semifinal loss on home ice and loss to UMass-Boston very well could be the reason they are left out.

IMHO, Gustavus Adolphus would have had a better shot at the Pool C bid if they had lost to St. Kate's.

 

[imafan]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I heard Gustavus is leading the pack for hosting this years' finals, what other "hunches" are out there?

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I heard Gustavus is leading the pack for hosting this years' finals, what other "hunches" are out there?

Well if its a 4-3 split, I'd say they are hosting. If its 5-2, it will be whoever wins between UWRF/Gustavus in the quarters. Either way, if you are plannin on coming out west for them, you can buy your ticket to MSP

 

[pucko]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

If they do pick LF to go in, how do you think the games would work in terms of a first round? I guess I'm just having a hard time understanding how LF could get in when they didn't make their championship game. I understand they are technically first in the Western rankings but how much does that really help them? And I agree with GoJ -- if they don't plan on doing a 4-3 split, they miaswell move the tournament out East. Which they very well can still do. It will definitely be interesting and looks like it'll come down to the Amherst-Trinity game this afternoon. For the West's sake, I hope Trinity is tired from their marathon game last night!

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

If they do pick LF to go in, how do you think the games would work in terms of a first round? I guess I'm just having a hard time understanding how LF could get in when they didn't make their championship game. I understand they are technically first in the Western rankings but how much does that really help them? And I agree with GoJ -- if they don't plan on doing a 4-3 split, they miaswell move the tournament out East. Which they very well can still do. It will definitely be interesting and looks like it'll come down to the Amherst-Trinity game this afternoon. For the West's sake, I hope Trinity is tired from their marathon game last night!

If It's 4-3 it will most likely be

Gustavus--Bye...host
Lake Forest @ River Falls

Norwich/NEC @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Amherst/Trinity (IMO) (Elmira loses today moving Trinity ahead of them if they win.)

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

NCAA will keep it out west by flying the loser of the Trinity/Amherst tilt west and if that team wins midweek, they hotel it for a few more games and drive into the other western team which will host the tournament.

There isn't a midweek game. quarterfinals are next Friday-Sunday and the FF is the following Saturday/Sunday. As much as I'm sure Amherst/Trinity would love to spend their spring break in MN on the NCAA's dime...thats not a possible scenario

 

[4and20]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I heard Gustavus is leading the pack for hosting this years' finals, what other "hunches" are out there?

I was going to use this post as a projection of what will happen based on the outcome of the NESCAC Championship, but after looking over the numbers, it seems that it does not matter what happens. The bracket does not really change.
That said, here is what you can expect the bracket to look like regardless of what happens tomorrow.
Plattsburgh-bye
NEC/Norwich @ Amherst
Trinity @ Elmira
UWRF @ GAC (winner hosts the FF)

My hunch is the brackets will be as Matt suggests with the tournement at Plattsburgh or one of the other east winners. It is a lot less expensive to fly one team rather than 2 or 3 and it is all about the money. Having it in the west is only a recommendation from a committe that has no power.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

My hunch is the brackets will be as Matt suggests with the tournement at Plattsburgh or one of the other east winners. It is a lot less expensive to fly one team rather than 2 or 3 and it is all about the money. Having it in the west is only a recommendation from a committe that has no power.

The NCAA is fully prepared to fly 3 teams west if the field is 5/2. I know that no one believes this, but it is true. In less than 24 hours, you will see.

 

[4and20]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

The NCAA is fully prepared to fly 3 teams west if the field is 5/2. I know that no one believes this, but it is true. In less than 24 hours, you will see.

I will believe it when it happens until then it is just wishful thinking. It makes no sense to penalize a West school by the Athletic Department only having less than a week to prepare for such an event when the # 1 seed could have Two weeks to plan for the event. Not that I don't hope I am wrong.

 

[pucko]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

The NCAA is fully prepared to fly 3 teams west if the field is 5/2. I know that no one believes this, but it is true. In less than 24 hours, you will see.

Matt, if this is true -- why isn't the NCAA ever fully prepared to fly 3 teams east when the tournament is there? Makes no sense and seems like a double standard with the Eastern teams.....again.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Matt, if this is true -- why isn't the NCAA ever fully prepared to fly 3 teams east when the tournament is there? Makes no sense and seems like a double standard with the Eastern teams.....again.

I am not sure I follow you at all. In what scenario would they ever be presented with an opportunity to fly 3 teams east?

Even if they were, it is irrelevant to the situation.