'09-'10 D-III Bracketology

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Scenarios 3 and 5 are only possible if Lake Forest gets beat in the first round of NCHA tournament because RF and AD will meet in Semi-Finals if all 3 of the top teams advance. And the TOP 6 teams in the NCHA all have a decent shot at the title so this obviously doesn't cover all possible scenarios, just what I deem the most likely. I give the NCHA two playoff bids in each scenario because A) Tournament is supposed to come West B) LF and AD are the best options for NCAA for going West because its the shortest distance C) Two west teams playing in the quarters eliminates travel money D) Two NCHA over Two MIAC because I feel the NCHA is tougher Top to bottom. If somebody else finishes Top 2 it would make for an interesting shake-up.

The problem with your scenarios, as long as the hosting facility requirements are similar to the mens, Lake Forest and maybe even Adrian can't host. Arrington Ice Arena in Adrian only seats 500 if I'm not mistaken....which is probably ok for the D3 womens FF, but they generally want more seats than that. Lake Forest doesn't have the facilities for sure.

 

[FALCONSANNOUNCER]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

The problem with your scenarios, as long as the hosting facility requirements are similar to the mens, Lake Forest and maybe even Adrian can't host. Arrington Ice Arena in Adrian only seats 500 if I'm not mistaken....which is probably ok for the D3 womens FF, but they generally want more seats than that. Lake Forest doesn't have the facilities for sure.

I had no idea about that. I would think LF could probably find another Rink close by maybe even Adrian or at least that they would try given the opportunity. Lets say its going to be Two of the Three NCHA mentioned plus the MIAC Champion. Would they say bring the tourney all the way out to Ridder or do a Neutral Site in like Madison or somewhere thats West but not to West?

 

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

The problem with your scenarios, as long as the hosting facility requirements are similar to the mens, Lake Forest and maybe even Adrian can't host. Arrington Ice Arena in Adrian only seats 500 if I'm not mistaken....which is probably ok for the D3 womens FF, but they generally want more seats than that. Lake Forest doesn't have the facilities for sure.

Say What??? That and the fact that in all probability, based on the criteria, Gustavus will be the highest seed in the West if they win the MIAC Tournament and the Pool C (if one were to be given to the West) if they lose in the MIAC Tournament Championship. But then again I’m the one drinking a nice cold Burly and reviewing real numbers and you all are drinking fruit flavored Kool-Aid and living with Alice in Wonderland.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What??? That and the fact that in all probability, based on the criteria, Gustavus will be the highest seed in the West if they win the MIAC Tournament and the Pool C (if one were to be given to the West) if they lose in the MIAC Tournament Championship. But then again I’m the one drinking a nice cold Burly and reviewing real numbers and you all are drinking fruit flavored Kool-Aid and living with Alice in Wonderland.

I don't see why Gustavus would be the #1 seed if they win the MIAC if River Falls or LFC win the NCHA.

As long as they continue to win...They would be the #1 west seed....you still refuse to realize that according to the NCHA LFC and RF are better than Gustavus at this point in time.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I had no idea about that. I would think LF could probably find another Rink close by maybe even Adrian or at least that they would try given the opportunity. Lets say its going to be Two of the Three NCHA mentioned plus the MIAC Champion. Would they say bring the tourney all the way out to Ridder or do a Neutral Site in like Madison or somewhere thats West but not to West?

The Ridder is being used for the D1 women's frozen four that weekend. There has been discussion about joining these two events together but I don't think it would happen this year, even though it would make a lot of sense. Especially if the Gophers are going to be in the D1 final four. If it came down to LFC, GAC, RF....my guess is that LFC would be 1 seed and get the bye....but the winner of GAC/RF would host. They have done that in the past as well, not decide the host until after the quarters.

 

[FALCONSANNOUNCER]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What??? That and the fact that in all probability, based on the criteria, Gustavus will be the highest seed in the West if they win the MIAC Tournament and the Pool C (if one were to be given to the West) if they lose in the MIAC Tournament Championship. But then again I’m the one drinking a nice cold Burly and reviewing real numbers and you all are drinking fruit flavored Kool-Aid and living with Alice in Wonderland.

You have to make everything into a battle don't you. Who died and made you God?


All I was saying was if 3 teams from the West go the NCHA would probably send 2. And if thats the case it would not make sense to replay the NCHA final from the week before. Also LF and RF are currently ahead of GAC in almost any ranking or numbers that have been computed that I've scene. So therefore they will likely stay ahead of GAC as they are going to face tougher competition, unless they lose of course. I would also say GAC is most likely to finish ahead of Adrian if Adrian is chosen so GAC would get a higher seed. Also hearing the bit about LF not being able to host. It is very likely to be GAC vs. RF in the first round. And either of those teams can win.

Also hearing the piece about the venues. It is very possible to think that if LF and AD play in the title game in the NCHA that GAC hosts. Then they both could be pitted against an East team in the quarters or GAC might have to play LF with AD playing an East team and Plattsburgh getting a bye before heading out to St. Peter.

I hope your shorts are no longer in a knot and we can once again become civilized on this site.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Also hearing the piece about the venues. It is very possible to think that if LF and AD play in the title game in the NCHA that GAC hosts. Then they both could be pitted against an East team in the quarters or .

That won't happen. There is no way Lake Forest would play an East team in the quarters. The NCAA would have to fly a team and they won't do that.

Interestingly if Adrian does get in, they could go to Elmira. According to the NCAA mileage calculator...Adrian is 499 miles from Elmira....which is just under the 500 mile mark. That would be the only team that Adrian could play in the first round beside Lake Forest

 

[FALCONSANNOUNCER]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I take it the 500 mile mark is where they start flying teams at.

So LF champs RF second....RF vs. GAC winner hosts?

RF champs GAC vs. LF RF hosts?

AD and LF AD vs. Elmira LF vs. GAC GAC hosts if they win or else back to the East.

If GAC loses MIAC tourney and RF makes NCAA they would maybe host well MIAC champ plays either LF or AD.

But watch SP or UWS win the NCHA Or St. Thomas winning MIAC and who knows what happens. Its going to be a hectic time for the next couple weeks.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

yes, 500 miles is the key.

IF it were LFC, Adrian, and Gustavus...I would assume GAC gets the bye and hosts...Adrian and LFC rematch.

When Gustavus, UWS, and UWSP made it a few years back....UWS went to UWSP and GAC got a bye, eventhough UWS/SP were inthe same conference and had played in the NCHA title game the week before

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

yes, 500 miles is the key.

IF it were LFC, Adrian, and Gustavus...I would assume GAC gets the bye and hosts...Adrian and LFC rematch.

When Gustavus, UWS, and UWSP made it a few years back....UWS went to UWSP and GAC got a bye, eventhough UWS/SP were inthe same conference and had played in the NCHA title game the week before

Here's a scenario:

Plattsburgh is the #1 overall seed and gets the bye.

Adrian goes to Elmira
LFC/GAC play (winner hosts)
Manhattanville goes to Amherst

More than likely though we're looking at:

River Falls @ Gustavus Adolphus (winner hosts)
Lake Forest gets bye
Elmira @ Amherst
Manhattanville @ Plattsburgh

 

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

You have to make everything into a battle don't you. Who died and made you God?


All I was saying was if 3 teams from the West go the NCHA would probably send 2. And if thats the case it would not make sense to replay the NCHA final from the week before. Also LF and RF are currently ahead of GAC in almost any ranking or numbers that have been computed that I've scene. So therefore they will likely stay ahead of GAC as they are going to face tougher competition, unless they lose of course. I would also say GAC is most likely to finish ahead of Adrian if Adrian is chosen so GAC would get a higher seed. Also hearing the bit about LF not being able to host. It is very likely to be GAC vs. RF in the first round. And either of those teams can win.

Also hearing the piece about the venues. It is very possible to think that if LF and AD play in the title game in the NCHA that GAC hosts. Then they both could be pitted against an East team in the quarters or GAC might have to play LF with AD playing an East team and Plattsburgh getting a bye before heading out to St. Peter.

I hope your shorts are no longer in a knot and we can once again become civilized on this site.

Say What???
1) My shorts have never been in a knot. Besides I don’t wear shorts.
2) No one died at least that I know of.
3) Definitely not God, never claimed to be nor would I want the job.
4) No battle intended. My exasperation is with certain individuals on the Forum that basically claim they go by what the NC$$ uses as criteria but then they won’t actually use the results of that criteria to back it up.
5) Comments such as “LF and RF are currently ahead of GAC in almost any ranking or numbers that have been computed that I’ve scene (sp)” drive me crazy because I can only assume one must not be looking very hard or really needs a new pair of glasses. Please see Rutter’s as of this morning: GAC -8, RF – 10, LF – 11, Adrian – 18; Rutter’s RPI: GAC – 6, RF – 7, LF – 8, Adrian – 20; Krach this evening: LF – 8, GAC – 9, RF – 10 and Adrian – 20. Which computed numbers have you been looking at?
6) Or say you go to the USCHO numbers. The western PWC page is sorted by winning percentage so don’t go by that, go to the comparisons page. USCHO has updated (way to go Matt and Ed) data so that the western comparisons are now correct except that you should use the new calculation where you get one point for SOS and not one each for OWP and OOP. For your perusal, her are the comparisons perNC$$ criteria (please read again, that says per NC$$criteria – not Say Whats??? criteria) as of end of day 2/20. (Stupid question # 5 million per data below – “Unless Adrian is the NCHA Tourney Champ, why, knowing that they have a 2-6-1 record against not so stellar eastern teams, would anyone in their right mind think they are a legit Pool C contender?”)

       Lake Forest vs River Falls
WIN      0.8500  1      0.7600  0
SOS      0.4935  0      0.5336  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.8750  1      0.7667  0
RNK      0.5833  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              3              1
==================================

        Lake Forest vs  Gustavus
WIN      0.8500  1      0.7826  0
SOS      0.4935  0      0.5403  1
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.8000  0      0.8333  1
RNK      0.5833  0      0.5833  0
----------------------------------
PTS              1              2
==================================

        River Falls  vs Gustavus
WIN      0.7600  0      0.7826  1
SOS      0.5336  0      0.5403  1
H2H      0.2500  0      0.7500  1
COP      0.8636  1      0.6250  0
RNK      0.5000  0      0.5833  1
----------------------------------
PTS              1              4
==================================

          Adrian    vs River Falls
WIN      0.7188  0      0.7600  1
SOS      0.5213  0      0.5336  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.7500  0      0.7500  0
RNK      0.6667  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              1              2
==================================

          Adrian    vs  Gustavus
WIN      0.7188  0      0.7826  1
SOS      0.5213  0      0.5403  1
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.6667  0      0.7500  1
RNK      0.6667  1      0.5833  0
----------------------------------
PTS              1              3
==================================

          Adrian   vs  Lake Forrest
WIN      0.7188  0      0.8500  1
SOS      0.5213  1      0.4935  0
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.7500  0      0.8571  1
RNK      0.6667  1      0.5833  0
----------------------------------
PTS              2              2
==================================

Note: I have no comment on the results above, I believe they speak for themselves. I have no team that I specifically support. (My team decided to play Club hockey for some reason this year.) I support competition for women at all levels especially the collegiate level. Maybe I am a little blunt at times and I apologize. If you want to debate what I think the NC$$ is going to do, that could be interesting. Because in the end that has nothing to do with criteria, just $$$$$’s.

 

[hockeymaven]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Question for Say What:

I understand if either Trinity or Middlebury win the NESCAC tourney they are in.
Do you see any scenario where Trinity or even possible Middlebury gets an at large bid if Amherst wins the Nescac tourney and what would need to happen? Thanks

P.S. Too early for drinking where I am but I am a beer guy also.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Question for Say What:

I understand if either Trinity or Middlebury win the NESCAC tourney they are in.
Do you see any scenario where Trinity or even possible Middlebury gets an at large bid if Amherst wins the Nescac tourney and what would need to happen? Thanks

P.S. Too early for drinking where I am but I am a beer guy also.

Middlebury has to win the NESCAC.

Trinity MIGHT be able to make it if Elmira loses in the ECAC W semifinals and the Bantams lose to Amherst in the NESCAC finals in a close game.

 

[Plugger]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Middlebury has to win the NESCAC.

Trinity MIGHT be able to make it if Elmira loses in the ECAC W semifinals and the Bantams lose to Amherst in the NESCAC finals in a close game.

Completely agree!! While Trinity's record is good, it would be good to see them play some tougher non-conference games. It would be good to see a Manhattanville, Plattsburgh, Elmira, or RIT. However, conratulations on them coming in 2nd in NESCAC. Job well done!!

 

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What??? As of today here are your PWC standings based on the NC$$ rulebook (the West agrees to USCHO comparisons adjusted for SOS change and the East agrees to the USCHO comparisons except it picks up all games through 2/21):
West (W-L-T) (team comparison points in parenthesis):
1) Gustavus 11-0-0
2) Lake Forest 9-1-1, loss to GAC (1-2), tie with Adrian (2-2)
3) River Falls 9-2-0, loss to GAC (1-4) and to LF (1-3)
4) Adrian 7-2-2, loss to GAC (1-3) and to RF (1-2), tie with LF (2-2) and with St Kate (2-2)
5) St Kate 6-3-2, loss to GAC (0-4), LF (0-4) and RF (1-4), tie with Adrian and St Olaf (2-2 each)
6) Superior 6-5-0 loss to everyone above
7) St Thomas 4-6-1
8) St Olaf 3-6-2
9) Stevens Point 3-6-2
10)Concordia 2-9-0
11)Eau Claire 1-10-0
12)St Mary’s 0-11-0

East (W-L-T) (team comparison points in parenthesis):
1) Plattsburgh 12-0-0
2) Amherst 11-1-0, loss to Plat (2-3)
3) Elmira 10-2-0, loss to Plat (1-4) and Amherst (0-4)
4) Trinity 8-3-1, loss to Plat (0-4), Amherst (0-4) and Elmira (1-3), tie with RIT (2-2)
5) Manhattanville 8-4-0, loss to Plat (0-5), Amherst (0-4), Elmira (0-5) and Trinity (1-2)
6) RIT 6-4-2, loss to Plat (0-5), Amherst (0-5), Elmira (0-4) and Manhat (1-3), tie with Trinity (2-2) and Middle (2-2)
7) Middlebury 5-5-2
Norwich 5-6-1
9) Mass-Boston 2-8-2
Hamilton 2-9-1
Williams 2-9-1
12)Bowdoin 1-10-1
13)Salve Regina 0-11-1

Strictly based on criteria and games to date, one would assume:
1) At-large will either be both in the east or one in the east and one in the west.
2) In the west, the only way a team from Adrian down gets into the Championship is to win their Conference Tournament. If GAC loses in the semi’s, they are probably out but would probably be under consideration if they lost in the finals. RF and LF probably need to be in their finals to be under consideration for an at-large.
3) In the east, Manhattanville and below need to win their Tournament to advance to the Championships. Too many teams in front of them to be under consideration for an at-large. Elmira becomes a bubble team if they are not in their conference finals while Trinity is a bubble team if they are in their conference finals and probably out if they fail to make the finals.

So assuming conference tourneys would go as expected, Manhattanville, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Lake Forest and Gustavus would be in the dance. Say the NC$$ decides to go to the Secondary Criteria at that time, River Falls, Elmira and Trinity would be the top teams looking for the two at-large bids. Elmira has already won the comparison with Trinity in the Primary, so the final spot would be dependent on whether RF would win a comparison with either eastern team.

                  River Falls  vs  Elmira
WIN                0.7600  0      0.8200  1
Over All Win %     0.7600  0      0.8200  1
SOS                0.5224  0      0.5612  1
Last 25%           0.8333  0      1.0000  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5000  0      0.5500  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        0              5
===========================================

                  River Falls  vs  Trinity
WIN                0.7600  0      0.8261  1
Over All Win %     0.7600  0      0.8333  1
SOS                0.5224  1      0.4984  0
Last 25%           0.8333  0      0.8333  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5000  0      0.5000  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              2 
===========================================

Trinity by the slimmest of margins would get the nod over RF to join Elmira as an at-large by a strict reading of the criteria. However once the numbers have been crunched, and this is my opinion, now the NC$$ big dogs and the selection committee (SSSC) get together and they (NC$$ with cover behind closed doors) decide who the final two at-large berths will be given to. Here is where economics come into play, which criteria pull more weight, political factors such as can there be a dance without Mandigo attending, does record trump a western SOS when comparing RF and Trinity, who has the facilities, etc. I’d go by the numbers if I were the SSSC, but of course that has about a 2% chance of being right. (At least they could definitively point on why they did what they did!) But then again, the SSSC would rather read all the complaints on the Fan Forum while drinking their fruity adult beverages on some beach in the Bahamas’.

Let the Tournaments begin and the best teams advance. I’ll post some more Secondary comparisons this evening or tomorrow.

 

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

where are you getting your records? Gustavus 11-0-0

 

[spwood]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

where are you getting your records? Gustavus 11-0-0

I believe that's her PWC between GAC and the other western teams. They win 11 comparisons and don't lose or tie any.

Say What.....Nice analysis. I don't think the NCAA would have much trouble with justifying River Falls over Trinity. They have (seemingly - we never know with the closed doors), in the past, weighted SOS pretty heavily. River Falls wins that comparison. In fact, Trinity being below .500 in that case makes it pretty easy to take River Falls over the Bantams, geography and $$$$ aside.

 

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

where are you getting your records? Gustavus 11-0-0

Say What??? That is the record when comparing NC$$ criteria for each team against all other teams with a winning % of 500 or better. As I stated, they agree to the USCHO comparisons (follow the USCHO links for “Rankings – Women’s D-III West Region PWC” to the “individual rankings”) adjusted for the change in SOS calculation. As I have also stated every time I have posted my numbers, these are by the criteria. No innuendo as to how the NC$$ will weight them. Now per your comment in “Post #10 in the D-III /Women’s PWC numbers” – “I will always consider USCHO/NCAA numbers correct and yours wrong”, I’m assuming you will have to agree even though it will cause great angst as the USCHO #’s now agree with mine (at least on the west). Feel free to say how you think the NC$$ will weight these comparisons in doing their analysis and why, but please do us all a favor and don’t say you know what they will do, unless you can give us your NC$$ source. Give us some insight into what you think and why you think the weighting will be one way or another and you might be very surprised to learn I agree with you.

 

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

I believe that's her PWC between GAC and the other western teams. They win 11 comparisons and don't lose or tie any.

So What.....Nice analysis. I don't think the NCAA would have much trouble with justifying River Falls over Trinity. They have (seemingly - we never know with the closed doors), in the past, weighted SOS pretty heavily. River Falls wins that comparison. In fact, Trinity being below .500 in that case makes it pretty easy to take River Falls over the Bantams, geography and $$$$ aside.

Say What??? Hold the presses!!!! There is an analysis I can agree with.

Does that make us best buds now?

 

[spwood]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What??? Hold the presses!!!! There is an analysis I can agree with.

Does that make us best buds now?

Let's not start picking out curtains just yet....