Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

[nbound]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

Here is this weeks official Berry Patch Poll
After compiling pages of statistics, I've decided to use this format this week. The average of a teams winning percentage against teams over .500 combined with each teams overall seasonal winning percentage.
. Not playing favorites with any team it looks like this. to be used for the fan poll


1. Platts .884
2. Trinity .784
3. Lake Forest .754
4. St Kates .723
5. Elmira .676
6. M'Ville .660
7. Middlebury .659
8. Amherst .643
9. UWRF .633
10. GAC .615



Then the rest of teams at .500 or better
Holy Cross .595
11. RIT .563
12. St Thomas .562
13. Norwich .562
14 UWSP .555
15. Concordia MN .547
16. St Olaf .544
17 UMass .539
18. Adrian .512
St Anselm .505
19. UWS .470
20. St Mary .458
21. Salve .455
22. Neumann .431
23. UWEC .349
24. Williams .335
25. Bowdein .310

 

[videohockey]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

Here is this weeks official Berry Patch Poll
After compiling pages of statistics, I've decided to use this format this week. The average of a teams winning percentage against teams over .500 combined with each teams overall seasonal winning percentage.
. Not playing favorites with any team it looks like this. to be used for the fan poll


1. Platts .884
2. Trinity .784
3. Lake Forest .754
4. St Kates .723
5. Elmira .676
6. M'Ville .660
7. Middlebury .659
8. Amherst .643
9. UWRF .633
10. GAC .615



Then the rest of teams at .500 or better
Holy Cross .595
11. RIT .563
12. St Thomas .562
13. Norwich .562
14 UWSP .555
15. Concordia MN .547
16. St Olaf .544
17 UMass .539
18. Adrian .512
St Anselm .505
19. UWS .470
20. St Mary .458
21. Salve .455
22. Neumann .431
23. UWEC .349
24. Williams .335
25. Bowdein .310

 

[Mania]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

Quite a few interesting results this past weekend

 

[Plugger]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

I don't think that being the NESCAC champ is anything to write home about this year..look at their record out of conference. I really don't forsee more than 1 team coming out of the NESCAC for the NCAA's. IF trinity had won both games this weekend and their remaining games, and lost in the NESCAC finals it would have been difficult to keep them out, however now..I don't believe so

I don't think that is an accurate comment, for if Trinity or Middlebury were to win NESCAC and Amherst wins the remainder of their games, with the exception of losing in NESCAC finals, they would certainly be considered. That is not an accurate comment about them losing out of conference. They lost a tough game to Elmira, but avenged that loss with a win down at Elmira, and beat Plattsburgh. So their out of conference is not bad. They also took 3 out of 4 points from RIT, another strong team.

However, I would agree that if Amherst wins NESCAC, there may only be one team, but as always the powers to be will look at how the teams do down the stretch, and look at toughness of schedule.

That is why I still think it will be a 5-2 split, as the West still does not have anyone that wants to step forward, other than potentiall River falls. Let's see how they do with Lake Forest, that will be a good weekend of hockey.

 

[Mr. Kitty]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1 Plattsburgh .912
2 Lake Forest .842
3 Trinity .789
4 Amherst .778
5 Elmira .775
6 Manhattanville .750
7 Norwich .750
8 Middlebury .735
9 St. Catherines .733
10 UW - River Falls .722

This far into the season I have to rank on winning %.
I'd like to figure out this .500 opponent/SOS angle but it looks like a feel-good slice of the poll to include inconsistent teams.

ECAC-W: 3 teams above .500
MIAC: 6 teams above
NHCA: 7 teams above
NESCAC: 5 teams above
ECAC-E: 6 teams above

Not sure what it means, but I will speculate wildly that the lower the number the more dominant and worthy the teams on the top (Elmira/Platt/RIT), now I would like to run the numbers for parity (average ranking for each conference as determined by the 1-50 number) within each conference because I know folks look down on the ECAC-E numbers where 8 games each for Norwich and Manhattanville are against teams that dream of playing up near the Mendoza line.

 

[Say What?]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

I don't think that is an accurate comment, .........

However, I would agree that if Amherst wins NESCAC, there may only be one team, but as always the powers to be will look at how the teams do down the stretch, and look at toughness of schedule.

That is why I still think it will be a 5-2 split, as the West still does not have anyone that wants to step forward, ..........

Say What? While your premise for Amherst OOC is right on, do not include RIT in the rational. If you compare teams in the East (which the NCAA will do) you have to leave out games against the West in Primary Criteria. Therefore RIT has 11 games against teams below 500 in which they were 10-0-1 and 6 games against teams over 500 in which they were 0-4-2. Sorry but it is time to start leaving RIT out of the mix! They are a good upper mid-level team.

 

[Phil D. Stands]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

ECAC-W: 3 teams above .500
MIAC: 6 teams above
NHCA: 7 teams above
NESCAC: 5 teams above
ECAC-E: 6 teams above

27 teams above .500 out of 50? ...hmmm seems about right

NESCAC -- 9 teams
NCHA -- 9 teams
MIAC -- 10 teams
ECAC-W -- 10 teams
ECAC-E -- 12 teams

Is ECAC-E weaker because of 12 teams, and NESCAC and NCHA stronger because of fewer teams? NCHA and ECAC-W have no real doormats, and ECAC-E has quite a few. NCHA has incredible equality and competitiveness, but it looks like each conference has a top 3 that can contend with any other conference. Too bad we can't mix up those 16 teams after the conference championships -- would be fun hockey until April

 

[nbound]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

27 teams above .500 out of 50? ...hmmm seems about right

NESCAC -- 9 teams
NCHA -- 9 teams
MIAC -- 10 teams
ECAC-W -- 10 teams
ECAC-E -- 12 teams

Is ECAC-E weaker because of 12 teams, and NESCAC and NCHA stronger because of fewer teams? NCHA and ECAC-W have no real doormats, and ECAC-E has quite a few. NCHA has incredible equality and competitiveness, but it looks like each conference has a top 3 that can contend with any other conference. Too bad we can't mix up those 16 teams after the conference championships -- would be fun hockey until April

That would be 15 teams

Adrian and Marian are first year members to the NCHA

As a side note a little NCHA history. At the April 10, 2000 spring meeting the NCHA added a women's division. Lake Forest, UW-Eau Claire, UW-River Falls, UW-Stevens Point and UW-Superior were the five women's teams that joined the league. UW-Superior had started a varsity women�s program in 1998-99 and UW-River Falls moved to a varsity program for the first time in 1999-2000. The Lake Forest, UW-Eau Claire and UW-Stevens Point teams were all in their first year of competition in 2000-01. Finlandia University joined the league for the 2003-04 season and Concordia-Wisconsin joined in 2007-08. Recent expansion includeds Adrian College and Marian University for the 2009-10 season as well as St. Norbert and St. Scholastica for the 2010-11 season.

For 2009-10, eight teams will qualify for the playoffs. The quarterfinal round features a 2+mini game format, while the semifinals and finals are single-elimination games played at the site of the highest remaining seed.

 

[obserbear]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1) Plattsburgh
2) Amherst
3) Elmira
4) Middlebury
5) RIT
6) Lake Forest
7) Manhattanville
8) Trinity
9) Wisconsin-River Falls
10) St. Catherine

 

[Mr. Kitty]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

League spreads (the difference between worst and first: percentages subtracted) between top and bottom (in-league wins only)

ECAC-E .893 league avg win% = .502
ECAC-W .748 league avg win% = .557
NCHA .733 league avg win% = .488
NESCAC .709 league avg win% = .499
MIAC .700 league avg win% = .500

I’m no math major, but I think you have to credit MIAC and NESCAC with tougher in-league opponents, and if you’re going to dump on ECAC-E, then the ECAC-W is also weaker as far as quality opponents compared to MIAC/NESCAC
The league average win % seems to show one big whale in ECAC-W (and that would be Plattsburgh)

 

[gojackets]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

IThat is why I still think it will be a 5-2 split, as the West still does not have anyone that wants to step forward, other than potentiall River falls. Let's see how they do with Lake Forest, that will be a good weekend of hockey.

What needs to happen is for Lake Forest to win out and lose in the NCHA finals. As far as the NCAA is concerned Lake Forest is 13-1-2 currently. If they win out they are 17-1-2. People like to throw the loss to UMB out there, but really that game is irrelevant. Against other pool C teams in the secondary criteria..I think LFC would still win, they would win win%, results against ranked, etc. IF Lake Forest takes at least 3 points from River Falls...and then is upset in the NCHA championship game...I think they are guaranteed a Pool C spot and we have a 4-3 split with the final four out west...but not at LFC(they don't have the facilities)

 

[gojackets]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

League spreads (the difference between worst and first: percentages subtracted) between top and bottom (in-league wins only)

ECAC-E .893 league avg win% = .502
ECAC-W .748 league avg win% = .557
NCHA .733 league avg win% = .488
NESCAC .709 league avg win% = .499
MIAC .700 league avg win% = .500

I’m no math major, but I think you have to credit MIAC and NESCAC with tougher in-league opponents, and if you’re going to dump on ECAC-E, then the ECAC-W is also weaker as far as quality opponents compared to MIAC/NESCAC
The league average win % seems to show one big whale in ECAC-W (and that would be Plattsburgh)

a difference of .24 isn't really significantly different statistically. I think the only thing you can tell from your calculations is that the ECAC-E is much weaker top to bottom then the rest. The average win % should be right around .500 In a game, you get one winner, one loser(obvious fact of the day). I'm not accusing of miscalculating, but if Phil is right and the NCHA has 7 teams over .500, I don't see how our average would be below .500. When I add it up I get .521 unless you did conference game win % and not overall.

 

[spike]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1. Plattsburgh
2. Amherst
3. Elmira
4. Lake Forest
5. Middlebury
6. Manhattanville
7. RIT
8. River Falls
9. Trinity
10. Adrian

 

[hdbub59]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1. Plattsburgh
2. Amherst
3. Elmira
4. Lake Forest
5. Middlebury
6. Manhattanville
7. RIT
8. Trinity
9. River Falls
10. Norwich

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

What needs to happen is for Lake Forest to win out and lose in the NCHA finals. As far as the NCAA is concerned Lake Forest is 13-1-2 currently. If they win out they are 17-1-2. People like to throw the loss to UMB out there, but really that game is irrelevant. Against other pool C teams in the secondary criteria..I think LFC would still win, they would win win%, results against ranked, etc. IF Lake Forest takes at least 3 points from River Falls...and then is upset in the NCHA championship game...I think they are guaranteed a Pool C spot and we have a 4-3 split with the final four out west...but not at LFC(they don't have the facilities)

I wasn't sure if you did or did not acknowledge that Lake Forest's loss to UMass-Boston DOES come into play when Lake Forest is compared to the eastern teams in the Pool C process.

It's irrelevant when compared to west teams but not when compared to any of the eastern teams.

Also, don't forget that Lake Forest's loss to Adrian doesn't look great when middle of the pack Eastern teams like Utica and Neumann swept the Bulldogs, and Eastern power RIT convincingly beat them twice.

Lake Forest has some big factors going against them when it comes down to at-large comparisons against eastern teams. They will most likely beat every eastern team (except Plattsburgh) if they win out in winning percentage, but after that things get dicey.

 

[Mania]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

Just to avoid confusion please post your poll with 1-10 and no stats next to them so I know you are actually submitting a poll and not just talking about stats.

 

[nyi19]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1. Plattsburgh
2. Elmira
3. Amherst
4. Middlebury
5. Manhattanville
6. UWRF
7. RIT
8. Trinity
9. St. Thomas
10. GAC

 

[nbound]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

incase you did not notice my for fan poll notation previously

1. Platts
2. Trinity
3. Lake Forest
4. St Kates
5. Elmira
6. M'Ville
7. Middlebury
8. Amherst
9. UWRF
10. GAC

 

[Mr. Kitty]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

incase you did not notice my for fan poll notation previously

Ditto:
1 Plattsburgh
2 Lake Forest
3 Trinity
4 Amherst
5 Elmira
6 Manhattanville
7 Norwich
8 Middlebury
9 St. Catherines
10 UW - River Falls

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: Women's DIII 2009-2010 Fan Opinion Poll

1.Plattsburgh
2.Amherst
3.Elmira
4.Middlebury
5.Lake Forest
6.RIT
7.Trinity
8.River Falls
9.Gustavus Adolphus
10.Adrian