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Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

WisconsinWildcard said:
Sweden is making an interesting decision but their claims of reaching "herd immunity" are not correct. We do not know what it will take to develop herd immunity at this time.

You need to know:
1. The numbers infected. Testing is not good enough at this point to define that accurately.
2. The percent of people who develop immunity after being infected. We do not have widespread serology at this time to know this.
3. The persistence of immunity. Not enough time has even passed (also we need to know 2 first) to know this.

There are other things needed but these are three large gaps in our data that make herd immunity calculations extremely difficult. I hope Sweden does well, but to say they are following good data at this point, would be a mistake.
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I read an article this week that mentioned that what Sweden was doing to create "herd immunity" in and around Stockholm probably wouldn't work for much of the country due to much lower population density. It also appears that Sweden's plan may not be going as well as they had hoped according to this Daily Mail article.

Sean
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Yeah, about Sweden.

On key data points, each of which has limitations, Sweden is faring worse than Denmark and Norway.
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Sweden has a higher confirmed infection rate than Denmark and Norway. The measure is the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people.
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The differences among Sweden, Norway and Denmark are not significant, Jennifer Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told PolitiFact.

But the total number of confirmed cases is increasing faster in Sweden than in Norway and Denmark — even though Sweden is doing less testing per 1,000 people than Norway and Denmark.
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One way to compare COVID-19 deaths is the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases. Sweden’s is more than twice as high as Denmark’s and more than five times higher than Norway’s.

Another measure is COVID-19 deaths per million people. Again, Sweden’s is higher than Denmark’s and Norway’s.
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Some do believe that Sweden's "spikes" will lead to a faster draw down - this remains to be seen but good luck to them because if it works it could lead to some altered strategies in places with similar population densities and infrastructure.
 
buoldtimer said:
I don't understand the bold statement above. Will you explain, please?
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It means there are people profiting, or in position to profit, the "worse" this pandemic is. The shutdowns are no longer about science and are becoming more political every day.
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

The video from those two "doctors" is woefully inept junk, and has been widely debunked.
 
Slap Shot said:
Really?
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Yeah man, it’s an NWO conspiracy...
<div class="tenor-gif-embed" data-postid="7207733" data-share-method="host" data-width="50%" data-aspect-ratio="1.325925925925926"><a href="https://tenor.com/view/wwe-wrestling-nwo-gif-7207733">WWE Wrestling GIF</a> from <a href="https://tenor.com/search/wwe-gifs">Wwe GIFs</a></div><script type="text/javascript" async src="https://tenor.com/embed.js"></script>
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

buoldtimer said:
No one is profiting from COVID more than cable news networks and NY Times, Globe, Washington Post, right?
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You think a cable network or the NY Times for instance generates more revenues during a pandemic by way of fake news?
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

pdt1081 said:
Netflix, Amazon, Disney+, etc. Plus, there are a few medical/pharma companies that are itching to get in on some funds as well.
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Disney is losing way more money off the theme parks being shutdown than gaining some extra Disney+ subscriptions.

And pretty soon there are not going to be anymore new movies and TV shows because all the studios are shutdown.
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

pdt1081 said:
Netflix, Amazon, Disney+, etc. Plus, there are a few medical/pharma companies that are itching to get in on some funds as well.
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And they're social influencing the narrative in their economic favor?
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SO, ARE TRUMP AND THE KUSHNERS TRYING TO PROFIT OFF THE <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CORONAVIRUS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CORONAVIRUS</a>?<br><br>This German firm is rushing to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 — and the German government accused Trump of trying to poach the company <a href="https://t.co/UWLlXyT0ae">pic.twitter.com/UWLlXyT0ae</a> 02<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FBR?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FBR</a></p>— Tomthunkit™ (@TomthunkitsMind) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomthunkitsMind/status/1256783121334362112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Americans are supposed to be upset about the clip I just watched?
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

I have not read through this whole thread, so am not replying to anyone's position in particular. But on CNN yesterday morning they interviewed a couple people from the medical field who were offering interesting information to suggest we should be more selective with social distancing. One, a doctor, I think, but maybe in epidemiology, wrote an article (New York Times?) that stated that a number of people are being kept from getting vital care for other conditions by staying away from hospitals and clinics due to distancing, and that the gap in preventative care could have a larger impact on the number of mortalities from other causes than from Covid, and suggested that stay-at-home rules should only apply to the vulnerable part of the population. That places like senior care facilities continue strict control but that schools and places of work return to some sort of normal. They also interviewed a researcher in epidemiology (I believe) who was introduced as one of the top 100 cited academics in the world. He mentioned that studies from multiple random anti-body tests are showing that there has been a much higher infection rate than was indicated by testing of only those showing symptoms. (Which of course means mortality rate is lower than we thought.) Like a typical researcher, he didn't specifically offer a recommendation on what policy should be, but he pretty much suggested that working towards herd immunity through selective protection of the vulnerable made sense. He essentially state that young people have tended to show no symptoms to those of a minor cold, and middle-aged (seemed to be up to 60-65, but not clear) tended to suffer the equivalent of a bad case of flu. And it was those who are older, and of course have other health issues, who are having the real problem and need to be isolated. But he thought that allowing less vulnerable middle-age and young to return to more normal activities made sense. Interview wasn't long, so they didn't get into whether this meant continuing with social distancing of six feet for all, masks, or what else, which of course would still be a problem for those attending athletics. But it sheds more light on the Sweden experiment. (Sorry, but am too lazy to look for either a video of the interview or the article.)

And as for the Sweden experiment, (which I haven't followed closely) the success shouldn't really be judged on how many or few cases they have relative to other neighbors now. It is on whether they exceed the number they can take care of at one time and at the end of all this, how they compare. If Sweden ends up with an equivalent number of deaths, but can return to a normal economy in 6 months because they have achieved herd immunity, but neighbors continue to have flare ups for 2 years before they achieve the same level and their economy is stagnant for that time, which is better? Some of this really depends on if there is a vaccine developed and reproduced in a reasonable amount of time. So we can argue about the approach Sweden took versus others, but we won't really know until this has passed. And maybe we'll have learned for the next time around.
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Russell Jaslow said:
Disney is losing way more money off the theme parks being shutdown than gaining some extra Disney+ subscriptions.

And pretty soon there are not going to be anymore new movies and TV shows because all the studios are shutdown.
Click to expand...

ESPN has to be hemorrhaging money as they have minimal content.
 
Koho said:
I have not read through this whole thread, so am not replying to anyone's position in particular. But on CNN yesterday morning
...
He mentioned that studies from multiple random anti-body tests are showing that there has been a much higher infection rate than was indicated by testing of only those showing symptoms. (Which of course means mortality rate is lower than we thought.)
...
Click to expand...
True, but correlation is not causation. Yes, there are more people infected who were unable to get tested who spread the virus around. It was pretty much assumed (despite the governor of Georgia just finding out in April).

But, there is also an interesting un-labled death spike when you compare deaths this year to the last five years (NY Times article here, this data was also backed up by two other sources, but I'm too lazy to link to them on my phone).

So yes, the *are* more people infected by Coronavirus than the official count reports. But the official death count also is low.


Also, the antibody tests, yes, are showing that more people did have the virus than initially thought. But these antibody tests are all not the same; more have been exposed recently for giving false positives, or worse false negatives. Lots of (legit news articles) on the testing errors.
 
Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

aparch said:
True, but correlation is not causation. Yes, there are more people infected who were unable to get tested who spread the virus around. It was pretty much assumed (despite the governor of Georgia just finding out in April).

But, there is also an interesting un-labled death spike when you compare deaths this year to the last five years (NY Times article here, this data was also backed up by two other sources, but I'm too lazy to link to them on my phone).

So yes, the *are* more people infected by Coronavirus than the official count reports. But the official death count also is low.


Also, the antibody tests, yes, are showing that more people did have the virus than initially thought. But these antibody tests are all not the same; more have been exposed recently for giving false positives, or worse false negatives. Lots of (legit news articles) on the testing errors.
Click to expand...

First, I am not sure what correlation or causation you are referring to. These studies refer to attempts to more accurately measure values, improve sampling method, not to assign a cause based on correlative evidence.

And yes, as the linked article points out, there is probably an underestimate of reported deaths. (It also shows sometimes it is difficult to assign cause, for example, is a hospitalized 40 year old person with stage 4 lung cancer who contracts COVID and dies a victim of the COVID, because it caused the person to die a few weeks earlier, or the lung cancer, which meant they couldn't fight it off as they likely would have without the cancer?) It also points out one of the points that the interviewed doctor made, that some of the spikes in deaths are attributable to other causes that went untreated because of stay-at-home orders. (And if I remember correctly, suggested that this effect will likely increase as time passes.) And the overall message was that the increased infection rate likely far exceeded what was originally thought, and far exceeded a potential higher, un-/mis-reported death rate. So even if mortalities are higher than currently reported, the much higher infection rate still results in a lower mortality rate than was thought.
 
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