Finances are only part of the answer, albeit an important part. The larger question for colleges is whether they can even house students first semester, or if they have to remain as on-line learning. No colleges have answered that yet, and for the major ones, the push of football revenue is a piece of that analysis -- but it still pales in comparison to the broader question of having an on-campus first semester (or year). Another aspect is the liability of allowing students back on, and then having an outbreak. The bills that Congress is considering now may shield that liability somewhat. Apart from the financial liability, there is a real concern about the health and safety of the students, and if there is an outbreak, potneially pulling the plug on the semester mid semster.
There is also the issue of whether a college can charge the same high tuition for an on-line experience. (Michigan State has already been sued for not just room and board, but also a tuition rebate.
https://statenews.com/article/2020/...-demanding-tuition-room-board-and-fee-refunds Johns-Hopkins faces the same criticism even though it provided rebates on the room and board, but not tuition).
https://www.baltimoresun.com/corona...0200405-xze7s7tkyzbg5azrmpg7j35r5m-story.html
U.Maryland is giving some tuition rebates. This is for last semester, where everyone was caught without informed decisions. What happens for next year, where everyone goes in with their eyes open about what the college is planning to charge for online only. The cost of that "rebate" vs. the ability to charge full whack is something each college will have to make based on its own supply and demand equasion, so Harvard and BC will have a different answer than Ferris State and Merrimack.
The BU contingency plan, which I'm sure every other school has considered, but not said out loud, is whether to push first semester to second semester, with second semester replaing summer school. That makes the most sense to buy some time without dealing with the "online" issue. There is at least a plausible chance of normalcy in January, and that way a school can earn the full tuition for two semi normal semesters.
If colleges can even get past those core financial issues, there is the issue of minimizing risk in a "normal" on-campus environment. I'm guessing having events for 4,000 people to gather is pretty low on that list. Especially if the revenue doesn't warrant the risk. So then, do you have events for on-line games, just for the sake of entertainment? And what happens if BU starts January 1, but Maine chooses to open first semster because they're a more rural school? Are they going to re-do the schedule on the fly?
If I'm a hockey coach, I'd expect not to play next year. We'll see them defer the kids, why waste a year at college if there are no, or minimal games? It's not that they'll get to play in the junior leagues, as those games are in jeopardy, too. I think it'll be limbo until 2021. I'm particularly attunded to these questions because I have two senior daughters (they're done with the new normal
), and even they are considering a deferral for exactly these reasons, namely the on-line limits to education (they'd be in lab classes), and also the loss of the actual freshman experience. Because no colleges have publicly announced their plans/contingencies/costs, we'll be in the same limbo until August, and perhaps beyond.
But hockey in 2020-21? Highly doubtful. Colleges are fighting for survival, and hockey is item 2,343 on the list of priorities.
