Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

[J.D.]

Why would you need students on campus for there to be athletics in the fall? Why can't you just have athletes on campus? Athletes can probably be housed in just one or maybe two dorms. You have one cafeteria operating for the athletes. You test them for Coronavirus every day. They take their classes online just like all the students who being educated remotely. On game day, they play in empty stadiums, or in front of socially-distanced crowds, which may mean the stadium is only 1/3 to 1/2 full. The programs take a bit of a hit in ticket sales, but they still have plenty of money coming in from TV. I don't see why it wouldn't work.

College football is now discussing this option, the idea of football players being on campus but not the general student population.

 

[NCAA watcher]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

College football is now discussing this option, the idea of football players being on campus but not the general student population.

I thought they had been doing that for decades?

 

[Split-N]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

College football is now discussing this option, the idea of football players being on campus but not the general student population.

Questionable optics and high potential for a media-driven political firestorm. Somebody would have to explain why administrators think it's OK for some students to be on-campus sharing close quarters locker rooms and sweaty training facilities while the same administrators think it's not OK for other students to be on-campus sharing classrooms, labs, libraries, dorms, etc.

 

[Bonin21]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Even if football plays in front of empty stadiums, don't expect hockey in that situation.

 

[Split-N]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Even if football plays in front of empty stadiums...

From my window into college football (ESPN Goal Line), a lot of college football teams were playing in front of nearly empty stadiums long before COVID-19 was a thing.

 

[buoldtimer]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Questionable optics and high potential for a media-driven political firestorm. Somebody would have to explain why administrators think it's OK for some students to be on-campus sharing close quarters locker rooms and sweaty training facilities while the same administrators think it's not OK for other students to be on-campus sharing classrooms, labs, libraries, dorms, etc.

Ultimately, the virus may spur administrators to question the role of athletics in college life? Especially, if the institution doesn't have a sport that generates a ton of revenue.

Sheer speculation, of course.

 

[J.D.]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Well, having just athletes would be more manageable for a school than an entire student body. It would probably hinge on available testing anyway. If every player can easily be tested by then, you could make it work.

Optics aside, follow the money. The ramifications of no college football season are expected to be staggering. I don't have any data on that, just reading the tea leaves. Finally, in a perfect world everyone stays hunkered down till we have a vaccine. That's just not realistic. Explore every possible option to move things along.

Football could be a trial run to see if basketball/hockey can be implemented. If hockey then gets the green light to proceed at some point, I don't think not allowing fans would prevent some kind of a hockey season.

 

[JerryP66]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

I have not read through this whole thread, so am not replying to anyone's position in particular. But on CNN yesterday morning they interviewed a couple people from the medical field who were offering interesting information to suggest we should be more selective with social distancing. One, a doctor, I think, but maybe in epidemiology, wrote an article (New York Times?) that stated that a number of people are being kept from getting vital care for other conditions by staying away from hospitals and clinics due to distancing, and that the gap in preventative care could have a larger impact on the number of mortalities from other causes than from Covid, and suggested that stay-at-home rules should only apply to the vulnerable part of the population. That places like senior care facilities continue strict control but that schools and places of work return to some sort of normal. They also interviewed a researcher in epidemiology (I believe) who was introduced as one of the top 100 cited academics in the world. He mentioned that studies from multiple random anti-body tests are showing that there has been a much higher infection rate than was indicated by testing of only those showing symptoms. (Which of course means mortality rate is lower than we thought.) Like a typical researcher, he didn't specifically offer a recommendation on what policy should be, but he pretty much suggested that working towards herd immunity through selective protection of the vulnerable made sense. He essentially state that young people have tended to show no symptoms to those of a minor cold, and middle-aged (seemed to be up to 60-65, but not clear) tended to suffer the equivalent of a bad case of flu. And it was those who are older, and of course have other health issues, who are having the real problem and need to be isolated. But he thought that allowing less vulnerable middle-age and young to return to more normal activities made sense. Interview wasn't long, so they didn't get into whether this meant continuing with social distancing of six feet for all, masks, or what else, which of course would still be a problem for those attending athletics. But it sheds more light on the Sweden experiment. (Sorry, but am too lazy to look for either a video of the interview or the article.)

And as for the Sweden experiment, (which I haven't followed closely) the success shouldn't really be judged on how many or few cases they have relative to other neighbors now. It is on whether they exceed the number they can take care of at one time and at the end of all this, how they compare. If Sweden ends up with an equivalent number of deaths, but can return to a normal economy in 6 months because they have achieved herd immunity, but neighbors continue to have flare ups for 2 years before they achieve the same level and their economy is stagnant for that time, which is better? Some of this really depends on if there is a vaccine developed and reproduced in a reasonable amount of time. So we can argue about the approach Sweden took versus others, but we won't really know until this has passed. And maybe we'll have learned for the next time around.

I stopped at CNN

 

[geezer]

I stopped at CNN

It’s not that hard... just sound out the long words.

Wait: you’re proud of it?

 

[Split-N]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Ultimately, the virus may spur administrators to question the role of athletics in college life? Especially, if the institution doesn't have a sport that generates a ton of revenue...

You may well be right. Institutions, both public and private, are taking deep financial hits and (of course) the trial lawyers are lined up to file the predictable lawsuits. Clearly, cuts are going to have to be made to help stanch the financial bleeding and intercollegiate sports may well be among them. Non-revenue programs could bear the brunt but I wouldn't be surprised to see football--especially at the FCS level--on the chopping block. Football is insanely expensive and has been a loss leader for years, except for the usual suspects. Hockey won't be immune either. Just impossible to project what might happen at this point.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

From my window into college football (ESPN Goal Line), a lot of college football teams were playing in front of nearly empty stadiums long before COVID-19 was a thing.

What % of games for Big 5 schools were regularly played before, "nearly empty" stadiums last season?

 

[Split-N]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

What % of games for Big 5 schools were regularly played before, "nearly empty" stadiums last season?

The quote you're referencing addressed college football in general, not just the Power (not Big) 5. But since you allude to the P5, no less a personage than Nick Saban complained on more than one occasion that student attendance at Alabama football games fell short of his expectations. Beyond that, ESPN Goal Line shots from places like Cal (Berkeley), among others, showed entire sections of empty seats. And there was an article months ago in one of the Florida newspapers about empty seats in Gainesville. Sorry, but my calculator needs new batteries so I can't give you precise P5 %.

The P5 aside, generally plenty of empty sections at many mid-major and FCS stadiums.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

The quote you're referencing addressed college football in general, not just the Power (not Big) 5. But since you allude to the P5, no less a personage than Nick Saban complained on more than one occasion that student attendance at Alabama football games fell short of his expectations. Beyond that, ESPN Goal Line shots from places like Cal (Berkeley), among others, showed entire sections of empty seats. And there was an article months ago in one of the Florida newspapers about empty seats in Gainesville. Sorry, but my calculator needs new batteries so I can't give you precise P5 %.

The P5 aside, generally plenty of empty sections at many mid-major and FCS stadiums.

Ok sure thing. Nearly empty stadiums across the board on a regular basis.

 

[Split-N]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Ok sure thing. Nearly empty stadiums across the board on a regular basis.

With respect, nothing in my previous posts mentioned anything about "empty stadiums across the board." Those posts were in the context that some institutions--especially at the FCS level--might have to consider dropping football to help offset some of the financial losses they're incurring because of the current public health emergency. And yes, football attendance is an issue at certain institutions, especially FCS and certain FBS mid-majors.

It's a discussion piece, and nothing more, posted on a discussion forum.

 

[Sol Diablo]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

A couple days ago it appeared that California and Oregon would not have NCAA sports in the Fall, of course that doesn't affect NCAA hockey at all. Washington may not have sports then either. States of Arizona, Utah, Colorado appear to be leaning towards Fall sports. It really messes up PAC 12 intra-conference for many sports. But now they are talking about only intra-conference sports, no OOC sports. California is leaning towards all remote class attendance, State of Arizona has stated that in-classroom teaching will occur in the Fall.
Stay tuned, it will change weekly.......

 

[bruhaas]

Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

Sean,
I am amazed by the details of your spreadsheet. Thank you for doing it. Having said that, all those numbers make my head hurt! Based on your analysis, what programs do you think might be in jeopardy of being dropped for financial reasons, assuming hockey and other fall sports do not start up as usual? Thanks!
BU season ticket holder, so if we get back, and you are at the games, I'd like to say hi!