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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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Chilik, a Belarussian cartoonist:

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Putin: "I have weapons. I am about to attack."

3 Figures: "Too bad we'll never know the truth." "Both sides blame each other, what to make of this?" "So many fakes these days, who to believe..."
 
Kepler said:
Is the boycott of Russian airspace fucking with Alaska as a transoceanic stopover?
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Nope, benefiting it actually. It hasn’t put us back to the Cold War days of passenger flights stopping but it is increasing the number of cargo flights stopping over.

My company just added 40+ full time jobs in the last six months and they’re already talking adding more. Plus there’s plans for new and expanded facilities for both us and FedEx.

It’s the one segment of Alaska’s economy that’s actually growing.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Nope, benefiting it actually. It hasn’t put us back to the Cold War days of passenger flights stopping but it is increasing the number of cargo flights stopping over.

My company just added 40+ full time jobs in the last six months and they’re already talking adding more. Plus there’s plans for new and expanded facilities for both us and FedEx.

It’s the one segment of Alaska’s economy that’s actually growing.
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Huh, thanks. When I saw the redirect of the Finnair Helsinki-Tokyo route I thought as much.

This is a GREAT documentary!!! I can't believe I'm doing this rather than sleeping but I'm hooked.
 
Also, Wendover does really good work. It’s crazy that Sam is only 25 and has two different million plus subscriber channels. I think he was only 17-18 when his first videos came out.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Video on the impact of the war on the international aviation industry.

I completely forgot about Northern Pacific Airways, they’re a sister company to the regional airline Ravn (they fly most of the routes to villages around Alaska). Be interesting if they can take advantage of the situation.
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When I saw that yesterday, I quickly thought of you, actually. That you could get really busy in the near future- and given the development with this, it could last for some time.

The part of that where I was making some thought a short while ago was Aeroflot seizing the planes to keep them- at the direction of vladdy. This is where I really think it's going to take a while for any sane company to risk going into russia to make money. Hard to see Boeing or Airbus leasing them planes anytime soon- since they just took hundreds of millions in assets from both companies. And I don't see this as one part of the economy that will stand out- there will certainly be other industries that will get their stuff seized for the sake of it.

Will there be some greedy company that will rush in? Sure. But will a massive company invest millions or billions in assets to risk them getting taken from them? It's going to take a while of political stability to get any confidence to put money into russia.

Maybe they will sell stuff there. But build a factory? Or lease planes? Or sell technology? I can't see that happening for a long time. vladdy is dooming russians to restart the post communism struggle even if this ends well tomorrow.
 
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MichVandal said:
When I saw that yesterday, I quickly thought of you, actually. That you could get really busy in the near future- and given the development with this, it could last for some time.

The part of that where I was making some thought a short while ago was Aeroflot seizing the planes to keep them- at the direction of vladdy. This is where I really think it's going to take a while for any sane company to risk going into russia to make money. Hard to see Boeing or Airbus leasing them planes anytime soon- since they just took hundreds of millions in assets from both companies. And I don't see this as one part of the economy that will stand out- there will certainly be other industries that will get their stuff seized for the sake of it.

Will there be some greedy company that will rush in? Sure. But will a massive company invest millions or billions in assets to risk them getting taken from them? It's going to take a while of political stability to get any confidence to put money into russia.

Maybe they will sell stuff there. But build a factory? Or lease planes? Or sell technology? I can't see that happening for a long time. vladdy is dooming russians to restart the post communism struggle even if this ends well tomorrow.
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So much of this (the entire situation, not just aviation one) begs the question "Ok, so let's say Russian 'wins' and absorbs Ukraine. Now way? Who's going to do business with them beyond China and a few others? They're a larger, whiter North Korea."
 
Swansong said:
So much of this (the entire situation, not just aviation one) begs the question "Ok, so let's say Russian 'wins' and absorbs Ukraine. Now way? Who's going to do business with them beyond China and a few others? They're a larger, whiter North Korea."
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Russia has the means to be somewhat self sustaining though... They have resources to use and will be able to do what they need to do for trade with China and the Middle East...
 
RaceBoarder said:
Russia has the means to be somewhat self sustaining though... They have resources to use and will be able to do what they need to do for trade with China and the Middle East...
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Much of the means, but they've also globalized to a large extent so it would be years before they're back being fully self-supporting.
 
Swansong said:
So much of this (the entire situation, not just aviation one) begs the question "Ok, so let's say Russian 'wins' and absorbs Ukraine. Now way? Who's going to do business with them beyond China and a few others? They're a larger, whiter North Korea."
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And even if I were China, I would be very wary of direct investment into Russia- given there's a clear risk that it will be seized for reasons. As I see it, all China would do is be a trading partner- taking oil, and selling stuff. And with China working so hard to get off of oil, that will be a very one sided trade system- sucking money out of Russia.
 
RaceBoarder said:
Russia has the means to be somewhat self sustaining though... They have resources to use and will be able to do what they need to do for trade with China and the Middle East...
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In theory, sure. In reality, that's never worked out. Even with the USSR, they needed to trade with the rest of the world to survive.

And right *now*, it will take many years to return to be able to just live on their own- and I see a massive uprising well before that can get hold. People are already angry they can't get stuff- like food.
 
I would have to think that Poots McGoots is ready to play the long game here (talking years) for himself. As to whether the Russian People are willing to put up with it is a different can of worms entirely. I'm just talking Poots and the Yes Men in the government.

From the airline documentary posted earlier, it mentioned Aeroflat being state owned. How much of Russian business is oriented like that? That was why I was thinking they could simply retool and come up with ways to keep things "in house" and be able to make ends meet.
 
RaceBoarder said:
From the airline documentary posted earlier, it mentioned Aeroflat being state owned. How much of Russian business is oriented like that? That was why I was thinking they could simply retool and come up with ways to keep things "in house" and be able to make ends meet.
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Gazprom (Russian state-owned oil & gas corp) by itself was 4% of Russia's entire GDP a few years ago.
 
RaceBoarder said:
I would have to think that Poots McGoots is ready to play the long game here (talking years) for himself. As to whether the Russian People are willing to put up with it is a different can of worms entirely. I'm just talking Poots and the Yes Men in the government.

From the airline documentary posted earlier, it mentioned Aeroflat being state owned. How much of Russian business is oriented like that? That was why I was thinking they could simply retool and come up with ways to keep things "in house" and be able to make ends meet.
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The issue, specifically for the aviation industry, is that so many parts used by even Russian-developed planes are manufactured outside Russia. They'll have to get entire industries back up and running - and all that entails - before this is possible.
 
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