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Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
The Arab League moves towards supporting the protesters' call for a no fly zone. Gaddafi calls down more air raids on the opposition's cities. Tripoli has a lot of damage and many skilled people have fled.
Meanwhile...
Bahrain
Yemen
Algeria
Zimbabwe
Oman
Jordan
Iran
Iraq
Morocco
And an opinion piece (also an AJ slap on their own back) on why western policy analysts didn't see the pro-democracy movement coming.
Perhaps the cynical and exploitative Realpolitik untruths and half-truths that propped up some of our more inept and knuckledragging philosophies on foreign relations are now about to change, not because their proponents have learned, but because the guys on the wrong side of the missiles are taking matters into their own hands. The tin badge Kissingers will always be the last to know. Or perhaps it's all premature and five years from now it will be meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Europe took a long time to throw off their kings, and not always for the best.
Anyway, so much for the end of history.
The Arab League moves towards supporting the protesters' call for a no fly zone. Gaddafi calls down more air raids on the opposition's cities. Tripoli has a lot of damage and many skilled people have fled.
Meanwhile...
Bahrain
Yemen
Algeria
Zimbabwe
Oman
Jordan
Iran
Iraq
Morocco
And an opinion piece (also an AJ slap on their own back) on why western policy analysts didn't see the pro-democracy movement coming.
Perhaps the cynical and exploitative Realpolitik untruths and half-truths that propped up some of our more inept and knuckledragging philosophies on foreign relations are now about to change, not because their proponents have learned, but because the guys on the wrong side of the missiles are taking matters into their own hands. The tin badge Kissingers will always be the last to know. Or perhaps it's all premature and five years from now it will be meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Europe took a long time to throw off their kings, and not always for the best.
Anyway, so much for the end of history.
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Re: Unrest in Egypt
I've been pretty impressed by the Arab Leagues stance on all this. They have been about as tough on Gaddafi as any international body...and remember they consist of many nations that have strongmen and are at risk of uprisings themselves.
I've been pretty impressed by the Arab Leagues stance on all this. They have been about as tough on Gaddafi as any international body...and remember they consist of many nations that have strongmen and are at risk of uprisings themselves.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
I wondered about this, too; according to a BBC report I heard a couple days ago it may stem from Gaddafi's neighbors being unnerved by how nuts he is.
It says something when you have to go all the way to Venezuela to find a friend.
Interestingly, Russian TV has been pretty coy in their coverage of all this. They are covering it not so much as "democracy blooms" but "screaming guys with crowbars confront screaming guys with tear gas, aren't we lucky that our strong, dependable, central government doesn't allow stuff like this back home?" It's sort of Fox News with more than a third grade education, but the same longing for the iron fist (as long as it's the right fist).
I wondered about this, too; according to a BBC report I heard a couple days ago it may stem from Gaddafi's neighbors being unnerved by how nuts he is.
It says something when you have to go all the way to Venezuela to find a friend.
Interestingly, Russian TV has been pretty coy in their coverage of all this. They are covering it not so much as "democracy blooms" but "screaming guys with crowbars confront screaming guys with tear gas, aren't we lucky that our strong, dependable, central government doesn't allow stuff like this back home?" It's sort of Fox News with more than a third grade education, but the same longing for the iron fist (as long as it's the right fist).
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Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
Interesting interview on NPR last night with a former US general talking about creating a no-fly zone. He made the key point that to establish a no-fly zone, you need to demolish all of the ground-to-air defenses in order to make sure that those enforcing and patrolling the zone are kept safe. And that is basically an act of war. He asked "Do we really want to take that step?" His implication was that while much of the media is jumping on instant solutions, the reality is nowhere near as clean.
Also heard that Europe can't even get a meeting on the agenda to discuss a no-fly zone until the end of the month. Dont' hold your breath.
Interesting interview on NPR last night with a former US general talking about creating a no-fly zone. He made the key point that to establish a no-fly zone, you need to demolish all of the ground-to-air defenses in order to make sure that those enforcing and patrolling the zone are kept safe. And that is basically an act of war. He asked "Do we really want to take that step?" His implication was that while much of the media is jumping on instant solutions, the reality is nowhere near as clean.
Also heard that Europe can't even get a meeting on the agenda to discuss a no-fly zone until the end of the month. Dont' hold your breath.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
I think the happiest people about that are the Europeans.
It's a terrible idea for the west to move anything more provocative than a UN inspector into Libya. Gadaffi's best chance is to appeal to the (not unreasonable) native suspicion of our motives. All we need is a repeat of Iraq, with military units hustling to protect oil installations while people die in the streets. Instant terrorist insurgency.
For that matter, I hope we learned the lesson that you can't just gut the local military forces or you're creating the kind of anarchy that gives the crazies an opening. The chances of a positive outcome may be low, but the best shot at it is the Tunisian-Egyptian scenario: Libyan people hold out long enough that the army stops getting paid, beheads the regime itself, and then freezes control of the state until whatever a 21st century North African democracy looks like gets running.
Even then the next strongman might seize power, but in this case the hand that you hold is the hand that holds you down.
I think the happiest people about that are the Europeans.
It's a terrible idea for the west to move anything more provocative than a UN inspector into Libya. Gadaffi's best chance is to appeal to the (not unreasonable) native suspicion of our motives. All we need is a repeat of Iraq, with military units hustling to protect oil installations while people die in the streets. Instant terrorist insurgency.
For that matter, I hope we learned the lesson that you can't just gut the local military forces or you're creating the kind of anarchy that gives the crazies an opening. The chances of a positive outcome may be low, but the best shot at it is the Tunisian-Egyptian scenario: Libyan people hold out long enough that the army stops getting paid, beheads the regime itself, and then freezes control of the state until whatever a 21st century North African democracy looks like gets running.
Even then the next strongman might seize power, but in this case the hand that you hold is the hand that holds you down.
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P
Priceless
Guest
Re: Unrest in Egypt
I've clearly got to study up on my nutters. I only got 4 right.
Tough quiz. How do you really tell the difference between them?
I've clearly got to study up on my nutters. I only got 4 right.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
If I hadn't just been listening to the Sheen interview I would have done even worse. It's harder than the "Hitler or Coulter?" quiz.
If I hadn't just been listening to the Sheen interview I would have done even worse. It's harder than the "Hitler or Coulter?" quiz.
P
Priceless
Guest
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
I don't think too many people in the Arab world read hilariously paranoid right wing AIPAC propaganda, so... um, no.
(Likud's worst nightmare is a rational, democratic Arab world. There are enough intelligent Israelis that the hard right will be out of there like **** through a goose.)
I don't think too many people in the Arab world read hilariously paranoid right wing AIPAC propaganda, so... um, no.
(Likud's worst nightmare is a rational, democratic Arab world. There are enough intelligent Israelis that the hard right will be out of there like **** through a goose.)
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Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: Unrest in Egypt
Religions are like mistresses. They are very useful as long as you don't commit yourself entirely to just one, if you leave them in the same room together they'll start clawing each other's eyes out, and pairing them sounds fantastic in theory but only gets them both mad at you in practice.
Thanks. I'll be here all week.
Religions are like mistresses. They are very useful as long as you don't commit yourself entirely to just one, if you leave them in the same room together they'll start clawing each other's eyes out, and pairing them sounds fantastic in theory but only gets them both mad at you in practice.
Thanks. I'll be here all week.
Re: Unrest in Egypt
Yemeni tribes have been fighting each other since before the Ottomans ran the territory. That was why what T.E. Lawrence did was so amazing. He actually got the Arabs to stop fighting each other long enough to create "nations."
But unless they have a common enemy, they'll fall back to fighting each other. Only a matter of time in Libya, too.
Yemeni tribes have been fighting each other since before the Ottomans ran the territory. That was why what T.E. Lawrence did was so amazing. He actually got the Arabs to stop fighting each other long enough to create "nations."
But unless they have a common enemy, they'll fall back to fighting each other. Only a matter of time in Libya, too.