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Tournament Speculation Thread

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just for poops and giggles... if anyone has the time/energy, let's say the year is 2015 and the team's record landscapes are the same... what does the potential field look like with the absence of the NCHA bid and the Pool B in-play? Does the West suffer significantly (9-2 split)?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Transplanted Tiger Fan said:
Just for poops and giggles... if anyone has the time/energy, let's say the year is 2015 and the team's record landscapes are the same... what does the potential field look like with the absence of the NCHA bid and the Pool B in-play? Does the West suffer significantly (9-2 split)?
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I would guess that you'd just have St. Norbert and Elmira face off for the Pool B bid.

According to the Pairwise page, St. Norbert holds the edge in winning % - by .0478 - while Elmira has a .0234 edge in SOS. You'd then have to take into account their records against ranked opponents. Elmira sports a 10-5-1 record (.656) while St. Norbert's is 7-4-2 (.615).

Given that Elmira holds a 2 to 1 edge in the categories and one of those 2 is the all important SOS, you'll probably give Elmira the Pool B and then have St. Norbert face off against Plattsburgh for the first Pool C bid.

Platty holds a pretty big edge in win % (.0826) while SNC has a minuscule edge in SOS (.0007). Then you go back to record vs ranked teams and see that Plattsburgh holds a large edge there as well (.700 to .615). Plattsburgh gets the first Pool C, then.

The next team SNC faces off against would be Manhattanville. St. Norbert has the edge in win % (by .0409) and M'ville has the SOS edge (by .0215). St. Norbert has the edge in record vs ranked teams (.615 to .538). Both SNC's victories are larger than M'ville's SOS so you can - most likely - give SNC the 2nd pool C bid.

Based on the bracket breakdown from "the other site" Manhattanville has the last Pool C bid over St. Scholastica and that would stay the same.

So to answer your question, no. It's still an 8-3 split... unless I'm way off on all this.
 
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Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Fascinating. Not a smidge of difference in the field.

The big assumption in this exercise is the condition that the current-records landscape could apply in 2015. Under the new league structure(s), whatever it/they may be, the values for the selection parameters for the Western teams may differ quite a bit. For example, if St. Norbert is “forced” into schedule with a significantly lower SOS, their overall record may be better than now but lagging far behind Manhattanville in the coveted SOS measure. This of course would not be applicable in a situation where the current NCHA is “renamed” to be the WIAC. But then again, a LOT can change in just a few short years, so who the heck knows what may happen by then!

At the end of the season, it will be interesting to perform the same analysis to see if there indeed would be any difference in the field. Our DIII world just never stops spinning...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Not that it will come to this, but how would the selection committee choose which team to compare in the case of a tie in the regional rankings? GAC and UWSP are both tied for 4th in the West. Which one would get the nod to be compared to an eastern team first - is there any objectivity to it?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

nysportsfan29 said:
Not that it will come to this, but how would the selection committee choose which team to compare in the case of a tie in the regional rankings? GAC and UWSP are both tied for 4th in the West. Which one would get the nod to be compared to an eastern team first - is there any objectivity to it?
Click to expand...
When the committee does the final rankings there won't be ties - they will hammer it out.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

The Pool C picture just got a whole lot murkier.

Elmira, Manhattanville, and Utica all lose in the East while St. Thomas and St. Scholastica also fall out West.

The question is do Bowdoin and Neumann move up in the rankings enough to enter the discussion. Going to be an interesting last set of rankings we get.
 
nysportsfan29 said:
The Pool C picture just got a whole lot murkier.

Elmira, Manhattanville, and Utica all lose in the East while St. Thomas and St. Scholastica also fall out West.

The question is do Bowdoin and Neumann move up in the rankings enough to enter the discussion. Going to be an interesting last set of rankings we get.
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I think all the schools that lost yesterday are done. The one exception would be MAYBE Elmira if everyone else holds serve.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

altazo said:
I think all the schools that lost yesterday are done. The one exception would be MAYBE Elmira if everyone else holds serve.
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I'm feeling that Elmira is still in an OK spot at this point. One of the Pool C's is already claimed by either Plattsburgh or Oswego - that much is certain. IIRC, the other website had the other 2 Pool C's as Elmira and St. Scholastica (if one of those guys see this post, I'm only seeing the Feb. 15th edition of their projections).

CSS, Elmira, St. Thomas all lost to ranked teams so that should soften the blow a bit. I'm not sure if Elmira will drop in the rankings simply because the two teams below them (Utica, M'ville) lost and the next team after that (Bowdoin) beat an unranked team. Then there's Neumann who did beat two ranked teams this week - obviously including Elmira. I think they'll be in for the biggest jump but I'm not sure they would go all the way from 9 to 5. Middlebury may jump over Bowdoin too with a win over a ranked team. With Stevens Point's victory of CSS, I'm thinking they may actually move up to #2 in the West since they were tied for 4th last week.

At this point, Elmira needs a good amount of help to make it in (if they hold serve at 5 in the East). Bowdoin and Middlebury play each other next week so one of them is going to get another win over a ranked team. Elmira probably needs whichever team is ranked lower to win and then lose to Amherst in the NESCAC finals. They'll also need Hobart to beat Neumann, Norwich and Amherst to win their conferences, and SNC will need to win the NCHA out west.

A lot needs to go right for sure, but stranger things have happened.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

nysportsfan29 said:
Always get confused by that.

So nevermind then. Elmira's quite likely done. I won't shed any tears for that.
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I'm not so sure Elmira is quite likely done.

Who gets in over them?

I'd say Elmira is still looking pretty for the #2 Pool C slot if Norwich and Amherst win.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
I'm not so sure Elmira is quite likely done.

Who gets in over them?

I'd say Elmira is still looking pretty for the #2 Pool C slot if Norwich and Amherst win.
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That was assuming they don't hold serve at 5 in the East.

I'm just getting the feeling that Bowdoin or Middlebury will be getting some big bumps in the rankings. One of them has to win next week - if Midd beats Bowdoin, that's two wins over ranked opponents in a week's time. If Neumann wins next week they will have 3 wins over ranked teams in the last week and a half.

If Elmira ends up at 6 in the final rankings they should be good. It depends on how close Bowdoin, Neumann, and Midd get to them in the rankings, though, since they still can improve their lot.
 
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Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I'm surprised there's been no talk of Hobart for a Pool C bid should they win the W tourney. What would it be, third in the ecac w regular season and playoff champs? 16 wins?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

altazo said:
I'm surprised there's been no talk of Hobart for a Pool C bid should they win the W tourney. What would it be, third in the ecac w regular season and playoff champs? 16 wins?
Click to expand...

The winner of the ECAC W will certainly have a shot along with Elmira as long as Norwich and Amherst win their tourneys.
 
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