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Tournament Speculation Thread

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

altazo said:
Only the NCHA quarter finals are a two game series. The semis and the final are single games. So, the league runner up is going to end up with only 3 more wins, not 4. Not sure if this info makes any real difference in your assessment however...
Click to expand...

The league runner-up could actually end up with only one more win if they tied both before the mini-game. Unlikely, but...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I not sure how the Norwich/Oswego rating will shake out but I would be most concerned about is facing Plattsburgh in the quarterfinal or earlier round. And for whatever season Norwich always seems to play Plattsburgh. Although most of the NCAA playoff teams are capable of beating each other, Plattsburgh defensive system and good goaltending make them a very difficult team to face. Elmira or Manhattanville are another couple of outstanding teams.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
A win/loss over a ranked team is much more important than a win/loss over a non-ranked team.

More than likely Skidmore and UMass-Boston won't be ranked, so that means Norwich will have an unbeatable record vs. ranked teams.

Meanwhile, Oswego's losses are to Utica and Neumann, which will both definitely be ranked. Norwich will win that category. Is it enough to overcome Oswego's massive strength of schedule edge though and winning percentage edge?

We'll see....
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Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

NUProf said:
Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.
Click to expand...

Norwich will also win the record vs. common opponent comparison against Oswego. Even if the Lakers win out they will not beat Norwich in that category (thank you Morrisville).
 
NUProf said:
Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.
Click to expand...

I must have been looking at the wrong numbers or mixing the women and men's up there because I thought Oswego had a big edge there.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

hawk said:
I not sure how the Norwich/Oswego rating will shake out but I would be most concerned about is facing Plattsburgh in the quarterfinal or earlier round. And for whatever season Norwich always seems to play Plattsburgh. Although most of the NCAA playoff teams are capable of beating each other, Plattsburgh defensive system and good goaltending make them a very difficult team to face. Elmira or Manhattanville are another couple of outstanding teams.
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I agree with Hawk BIG time, these teams we speak of are capable of beating each other on any given night......
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just some fact$:

The 2009-10 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Championship cost the NCAA $246,042, for 2010-11 they budgeted $314,180 but spent $345,336 (a difference of $31,156).
For 2011-12, their budget is $319,280.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

East:
1) Oswego
2) Norwich
3) Amherst
4) Plattsburgh
5) Elmira
6) Manhattanville
7) Plymouth
8) Curry

West:
1) St. Norbert
2) St. Thomas
3) Adrian

Now, based on the new official rankings and if every leader wins and what we know the NCAA does with travel...

Play-ins:
Elmira @ Adrian
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Plymouth @ Manhattanville

Quarters:
St. Thomas @ SNC
Adrian/Elmira @ Oswego
Plymouth/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Curry/Plattsburgh @ Amherst


It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.
 
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AldenPartridge1819 said:
East:
1) Oswego
2) Norwich
3) Amherst
4) Plattsburgh
5) Elmira
6) Manhattanville
7) Plymouth
8) Curry

West:
1) St. Norbert
2) St. Thomas
3) Adrian

Now, based on the new official rankings and if every leader wins and what we know the NCAA does with travel...

Play-ins:
Elmira @ Adrian
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Plymouth @ Manhattanville

Quarters:
St. Thomas @ SNC
Adrian/Elmira @ Oswego
Plymouth/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Curry/Plattsburgh @ Amherst


It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.
Click to expand...

I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.

If I'm not mistaken I believe the same happened to Norwich last year and they defeated the Plattsburgh in the quaters in OT
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PSUChamps2001 said:
I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...
Click to expand...

Amherst wins common opponents as of now -- could change this weekend:

COP Amh: 2- 0- 0 (1 point) Platt: 1- 0- 2 (0 point)

Common opponents are Middlebury and Williams. Plattsburgh was tied by Williams and Middlebury and won its second game over Middlebury. Amherst defeated both Williams and Middlebury but has games with both this coming weekend.

Amherst also has the better record versus ranked opponents as of now -- again that could change in the next few weeks . .
 
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Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

d3follower said:
amherst wins common opponents as of now -- could change this weekend:

Cop amh: 2- 0- 0 (1 point) platt: 1- 0- 2 (0 point)

common opponents are middlebury and williams. Plattsburgh was tied by williams and middlebury and won its second game over middlebury. Amherst defeated both williams and middlebury but has games with both this coming weekend.

Amherst also has the better record versus ranked opponents as of now -- again that could change in the next few weeks . .
Click to expand...

plattsburgh vs amherst
win .783 0 .833 1
sos .533 1 .531 0
h2h 0 0
cop 1-0-2 0 2-0-0 1
rnk 0.700 1 0.611 0
total 2 total 2
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Where Platty is in the ranking doesn't matter. All one needs is to get in and from there anything goes. Just ask the Neumann fans. If you are in you aren't crying about why you were left out. And both teams should get in.
Oswego '89
 
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