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Tournament Speculation Thread

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I don't really think this will happen but, looking at where teams stand right now, a second NESCAC team could make a run and get into that 3rd Pool C slot. If Bowdoin, Williams, or Wesleyan were to win their next six games and then lose to Amherst in the finals, I think that team would make the tourney by improving their RNK and SOS along the way. I just wanted to bring this up as it hasn't been discussed before. It's not that extreme of a situation. As I said, I don't think it will based on the parity in that league this year, but one of them could very likely make this come true.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

AldenPartridge1819 said:
I don't really think this will happen but, looking at where teams stand right now, a second NESCAC team could make a run and get into that 3rd Pool C slot. If Bowdoin, Williams, or Wesleyan were to win their next six games and then defeat Amherst in the finals, I think that Amherst would have a good shot at that 3rd Pool C slot. I just wanted to bring this up as it hasn't been discussed before. It's not that extreme of a situation. As I said, I don't think it will based on the parity in that league this year, but one of them could very likely make this come true.
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;)
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I can understand how easy it is to pencil in Western teams like SNC, UWRF, or St. Thomas. However, I would kind of hesitate writing Adrian's name in ink as the rep of the MCHA. Odds are they will repeat since they host the league's Championship series , but this is a young Adrian team that didn't even win one game while hosting their own Thanksgiving Tourney. Add to that, the fact that MSOE just beat and tied them in a big series on their own ice. A couple of weeks ago Lawrence gave them fits at Arrington Arena as the Bulldogs had to scrape for two 3-2 wins.

Write Adrian in, but make sure you have an eraser handy. The MCHA Harris Cup is not a given like the last 4 years.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Who wins the comparison numbers between Amherst and Plattsburgh State? Those two teams could potentially be fighting for the third and fourth spot in the East. A first-round bye would be at stake.

Amherst takes the winning percentage and PSUC grabs a point for strength of schedule, but who wins record vs ranked opponents?
 
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Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

With Middlebury winning their last four games they seem to be turning their season around. I have a question for you math wizards. If Middlebury can pull off a wins against Hamilton & Amherst next weekend would this put Middlebury in the top 15 ranked teams? If so this would help Plattsburgh, Norwich & Elmira with games against ranked teams. Plattsburgh has a win & tie against Middlebury while Norwich & Elmira both have wins.
 
VT bragging rights said:
With Middlebury winning their last four games they seem to be turning their season around. I have a question for you math wizards. If Middlebury can pull off a wins against Hamilton & Amherst next weekend would this put Middlebury in the top 15 ranked teams? If so this would help Plattsburgh, Norwich & Elmira with games against ranked teams. Plattsburgh has a win & tie against Middlebury while Norwich & Elmira both have wins.
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I'm certainly no math expert, but it can't hurt. If Middlebury keeps playing well, and gets into the rankings, I would assume that bumps the SOS of everyone that's played them.

Of course this only matters if these teams (aside from Elmira) don't win their AQ. What happens if a Buff State or Geneseo pulls off a few big upsets and wins the SUNYAC tourney, AND Castleton wins the ECAC E? If that unlikely scenario were to happen, then the decision becomes much less complicated. Oswego, Norwich and Platty are most likely your Pool Cs
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

LakerFan99 said:
I'm certainly no math expert, but it can't hurt. If Middlebury keeps playing well, and gets into the rankings, I would assume that bumps the SOS of everyone that's played them.

Of course this only matters if these teams (aside from Elmira) don't win their AQ. What happens if a Buff State or Geneseo pulls off a few big upsets and wins the SUNYAC tourney, AND Castleton wins the ECAC E? If that unlikely scenario were to happen, then the decision becomes much less complicated. Oswego, Norwich and Platty are most likely your Pool Cs
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Top 15 is not going to cut it. They need to be one of the top non AQ's. Assuming that Oswego, Norwich, Amherst get the AQ, that leaves Platty as one Pool C, probably an ECAC-W as another Pool C, and then who gets the last one??
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

joecct said:
Top 15 is not going to cut it. They need to be one of the top non AQ's. Assuming that Oswego, Norwich, Amherst get the AQ, that leaves Platty as one Pool C, probably an ECAC-W as another Pool C, and then who gets the last one??
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Wisconsin-Superior?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

joecct said:
Top 15 is not going to cut it. They need to be one of the top non AQ's. Assuming that Oswego, Norwich, Amherst get the AQ, that leaves Platty as one Pool C, probably an ECAC-W as another Pool C, and then who gets the last one??
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Johnson & Whales???? :p
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Norwich is sure to get a slot, either Pool A or Pool C, based on current performance. Would this knock out a Castleton and/or Plattsburgh if they don't win their conference championships?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

The Real Georgia Peach said:
Norwich is sure to get a slot, either Pool A or Pool C, based on current performance. Would this knock out a Castleton and/or Plattsburgh if they don't win their conference championships?
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It is situations like this that make everyone hope that all of their "non-conference" leaders win their respective conferences AQ.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Assuming Norwich wins the AQ and Oswego wins their AQ, I have trouble believing that both Castleton and Plattsburgh win a Pool C bid. Assuming Plattsburgh wins the AQ I do believe that Oswego would get a C bid. I'm not too sure there is a place for an ECAC-W team in the post season.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

The Real Georgia Peach said:
Norwich is sure to get a slot, either Pool A or Pool C, based on current performance. Would this knock out a Castleton and/or Plattsburgh if they don't win their conference championships?
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Friday night is a HUGE game for Plattsburgh, and we will find out just how huge come Tuesday. If Plattsburgh wins Friday night (and Saturday), I don't think anyone else will claim a Pool C spot over them (except Oswego and Norwich and rightfully so). However, if Plattsburgh was to lose Friday night and then again in the SUNYACS its a big question mark now after losing to Brockport. If Plattsburgh splits (or worse gets sweept) this weekend and Amherst sweeps, there could be a clear case for Amherst over Plattsburgh. Again I think it will come down to WHO is ranked. No ofense to the West (ECAC and NCHA) but I don't forsee them overtaking any teams (Norwich, Oswego, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Castleton) to gain a spot. St.Thomas? I want to be sold but I just can't yet.

My Top 10/12 depending on what happens this weekend

1. Norwich **
2. Oswego **
3. Plattsburgh/Amherst **
4. Elmira
5. SNC **
6. St.Thomas **
7. Castleton
8. Manhatanville
9. Utica
10. UWRF/NCHA Runner Up (going to have 4 more wins)

Again right now its all speculation on who the ranked teams will be. A team left out or put in could really help or hurt a teams chance.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

nysportsfan29 said:
Are the NCAA rankings released on Monday or Tuesday?
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Tuesday.

Expect Oswego to be #1 followed closely by Norwich and then after that either Amherst or Plattsburgh. After that its a crap shoot.

This is just my guess. I have absolutely no inside knowledge and I am mainly going off the work Josh has done on the other site.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Expect Oswego to be #1 followed closely by Norwich and then after that either Amherst or Plattsburgh. After that its a crap shoot.
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The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

nysportsfan29 said:
The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.
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One of the secondary (or wherever) criteria is record against RANKED opponents, so those games you want/need to win. For everything else, a loss is pretty much just a loss, no matter whom it is too. (Please note, this is just a generalization, there can be some slight differences. And as noted below, the ONLY rankings used for this start coming out this week.)
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

nysportsfan29 said:
The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.
Click to expand...

A win/loss over a ranked team is much more important than a win/loss over a non-ranked team.

More than likely Skidmore and UMass-Boston won't be ranked, so that means Norwich will have an unbeatable record vs. ranked teams.

Meanwhile, Oswego's losses are to Utica and Neumann, which will both definitely be ranked. Norwich will win that category. Is it enough to overcome Oswego's massive strength of schedule edge though and winning percentage edge?

We'll see....
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PSUChamps2001 said:
Friday night is a HUGE game for Plattsburgh, and we will find out just how huge come Tuesday. If Plattsburgh wins Friday night (and Saturday), I don't think anyone else will claim a Pool C spot over them (except Oswego and Norwich and rightfully so). However, if Plattsburgh was to lose Friday night and then again in the SUNYACS its a big question mark now after losing to Brockport. If Plattsburgh splits (or worse gets sweept) this weekend and Amherst sweeps, there could be a clear case for Amherst over Plattsburgh. Again I think it will come down to WHO is ranked. No ofense to the West (ECAC and NCHA) but I don't forsee them overtaking any teams (Norwich, Oswego, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Castleton) to gain a spot. St.Thomas? I want to be sold but I just can't yet.

My Top 10/12 depending on what happens this weekend

1. Norwich **
2. Oswego **
3. Plattsburgh/Amherst **
4. Elmira
5. SNC **
6. St.Thomas **
7. Castleton
8. Manhatanville
9. Utica
10. UWRF/NCHA Runner Up (going to have 4 more wins)

Again right now its all speculation on who the ranked teams will be. A team left out or put in could really help or hurt a teams chance.
Click to expand...

Only the NCHA quarter finals are a two game series. The semis and the final are single games. So, the league runner up is going to end up with only 3 more wins, not 4. Not sure if this info makes any real difference in your assessment however...
 
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