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Tournament Speculation Thread

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

What am I missing that is keeping St Thomas so low in the last NCAA rankings? I know their SOS isn't great. Is this the "Adrian factor" of not having enough games against tough opponents?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I'm not that familiar with the background story in the West, but looking at the numbers I would guess you're right. They seem to otherwise match up favorably against several teams ranked above them (in PWC). But if SOS was more heavily weighted, how did G.A. get the #2 seed? Their SOS isn't much better than St. Thomas (but they're in with an AQ anyway).

peddler said:
What am I missing that is keeping St Thomas so low in the last NCAA rankings? I know their SOS isn't great. Is this the "Adrian factor" of not having enough games against tough opponents?
Click to expand...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

llama said:
I'm not that familiar with the background story in the West, but looking at the numbers I would guess you're right. They seem to otherwise match up favorably against several teams ranked above them (in PWC). But if SOS was more heavily weighted, how did G.A. get the #2 seed? Their SOS isn't much better than St. Thomas (but they're in with an AQ anyway).
Click to expand...

My numbers have St Thomas beating GA in 4/5 categories. That's why I'm looking for enlightenment from those with more experience.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

peddler said:
My numbers have St Thomas beating GA in 4/5 categories. That's why I'm looking for enlightenment from those with more experience.
Click to expand...

I finally realized what you are referring to is the NCAA rankings not seedings. If you can figure out how the NCAA rankings are acheived, you have one over on almost every poster on here.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Does anyone know the link for the selection show at 9:30 tonight? I am on the ncaa site in another window and there is no mention of it.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Birdwatcher said:
I finally realized what you are referring to is the NCAA rankings not seedings. If you can figure out how the NCAA rankings are acheived, you have one over on almost every poster on here.
Click to expand...

The most recent (2/28) rankings for the East seem to make sense. It's the West rankings that confuse me. I have to admit that this is the only time of the season that I pay attention to the West, so maybe someone from out there can emlighten us.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Birdwatcher said:
Does anyone know the link for the selection show at 9:30 tonight? I am on the ncaa site in another window and there is no mention of it.
Click to expand...

I believe the D3 selections does not involve a "show", but are posted on the website when announced, if memory serves.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Well, there's this, but I don't know if they're actually posting video links at some point before the shows.
 
Re: March Insomnia

Re: March Insomnia

All starting to come into focus IMHO...

Teams getting in are pretty simple. I don't see any way we see anything other than an 8/3 split.

Hobart is in with an Amherst win over Middlebury today. Hobart is out with an Amherst loss to Middlebury.

Adrian winning the MCHA opens up some different possibilities with matchups but MSOE winning makes things VERY simple.

ECAC East- Norwich
NESCAC- Amherst/Middlebury
SUNYAC- Plattsburgh
ECAC NE- Wentworth
MASCAC- Plymouth State
MIAC- Gustavus Adolphus
NCHA- St. Norbert
MCHA- MSOE/Adrian

Pool C - Oswego
Pool C - Elmira
Pool C - Amherst/Hobart

If Adrian wins, Hobart or Elmira will be headed there for a play-in game and then winner goes to Oswego. Then Plymouth State and Wentworth will be on the road for play-ins in the East. Gustavus Adolphus will play St. Norbert in a quarterfinal game with both getting byes.

1E. Norwich
2E. Oswego
3E. Amherst
4E. Plattsburgh
5E. Elmira
6E. Hobart
7E. Wentworth
8E. Plymouth State

1W. SNC
2W. GAC
3W. Adrian/MSOE

Should Middlebury win, bump Hobart out and insert Middlebury as the #6 team. Plattsburgh would also most likely move ahead of Amherst as the #3 seed in the East which means no play-in game for Plattsburgh and likely hosting Amherst in a straight quarterfinal or hosting Amherst/Plymouth State winner.

If MSOE wins we have a very simple bracket.

Play-In round:

MSOE @ GAC
Plymouth @ Elmira
Wentworth @ Middlebury/Hobart

Quarterfinals:

Middlebury or Hobart/Wentworth @ Norwich
Elmira/Plymouth State @ Oswego
MSOE/GAC @ SNC
Plattsburgh @ Amherst (Flip this should Amherst lose to Midd today...Plattsburgh would then host)
 
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Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I'd send Hobart. Then Elmira plays Wentworth and Plattsbugh gets Plymouth
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I think if Hobart is in they would have to be on the road as the lower seed and head to Adrian should they beat MSOE (I didn't get-up at 4:30am for no reason!). :mad: ( :D )

However I must say, the pessimist in me sees the potential for a 4W with an Adrian loss. I can't justify it, or back it up with numbers... it's just a feeling for the curveball of 2012 that nobody sees coming. Prove me wrong, and I'll be a happy man.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just to throw a monkey wrench into all of your projections.

Code: 
    Amherst vs Elmira
WIN      0.8600  1           0.6346  0
SOS      0.5265  0           0.5624  1
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     2- 2- 1  0          7- 2- 1  1
RNK     8- 3- 1  1          11- 6- 2 0
============================================
PTS              2                   2


Code: 
    Amherst vs Hobart
WIN      0.8600  1           0.6111  0
SOS      0.5265  0           0.5531  1
H2H     0- 1- 0  0          1- 0- 0  1
COP     0- 1- 1  0          4- 3- 0  1
RNK     8- 3- 1  1          9- 8- 1  0
============================================
PTS              2                   3


Carry on.....
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I think your point is that if Amherst loses they are not necesssarily a lock for a Pool C bid....and I agree. I was looking at these same head-to-head numbers yesterday - and I'm not sure why Amherst (with a loss in the NESCAC final) has such a strong case to get in over Hobart or Elmira? Looks like this could be a close call.....

Matt Rennell said:
Just to throw a monkey wrench into all of your projections.

Code: 
    Amherst vs Elmira
WIN      0.8600  1           0.6346  0
SOS      0.5265  0           0.5624  1
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     2- 2- 1  0          7- 2- 1  1
RNK     8- 3- 1  1          11- 6- 2 0
============================================
PTS              2                   2


Code: 
    Amherst vs Hobart
WIN      0.8600  1           0.6111  0
SOS      0.5265  0           0.5531  1
H2H     0- 1- 0  0          1- 0- 0  1
COP     0- 1- 1  0          4- 3- 0  1
RNK     8- 3- 1  1          9- 8- 1  0
============================================
PTS              2                   3


Carry on.....
Click to expand...
 
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