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Tournament Speculation Thread

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Hockeyfan2113 said:
Hi everyone, i have been reading about how everyone likes Elmira to gain Pool C if Hobart wins and my question is why?

If Hobart wins:
League playoff Champion in a tournament they were seeded 3rd.

Had best end of year record between Elmira, Neumann and them:

Last 6 games:
Elmira :2-3-1
Neumann: 3-2-1
Hobart: 5-1 (outscoring opponents 28-15, 24-9 in the last 4)

Last 10 (nearly half of the season)
Elmira: 5-3-2
Neumann: 3-4-3
Hobart: 6-3-1

Non-league:
2nd to Neumann
Neumann 10-1
Hobart: 9-4
Elmira: 8-5-1

Vs top 3 teams in East:
Hobart: 1-1 (beat Amherst, Lost to Oswego)
Neumann: 1-0 (Beat Oswego)
Elmira: 0-3 (Lost to Oswego 2X, Norwich)

So my question is how come Elmira is so greatly favored particularly in relation to their league play but they ended up losing in the semis at Home to the 5th seed? Out of Conference isnt particularly impressive with half of their OOC wins being Cortland and Morrisville and a tie being Fitchburg State...
Click to expand...

Because none of those things that you mentioned are part of the criteria that the NCAA uses to pick at large teams. There are 5 criteria that are used in comparing one team to another

1. Winning percentage
2. Strength of Schedule
3. Head to Head play
4. Record against common opponents
5. Record against ranked teams (that means ranked by the NCAA, not the polls that you see here and on D3hockey.com)
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Okay.

Elmira has very slight advantage in 1 and 2 according to NCAA ranking breakdown. Beat Hobart 2-1. Record against common opponents Elmira 9-7-2 Hobart 9-9-1 (if conference opponents count, if not Elmira is 1-4 and Hobart is 2-3). And elmira has 3 more wins against ranked teams (NCAA ranked, I never care about USCHO or D3 Hockey I know they both are full of sh*t). But with numbers that close (essentially as it now stands Elmira has 2 less losses and 2 more ties, and Hobart would have 1 more win), I don't get how Hobart is not even approaching discussion for a pool C with a win.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Hockeyfan2113 said:
Okay.

Elmira has very slight advantage in 1 and 2 according to NCAA ranking breakdown. Beat Hobart 2-1. Record against common opponents Elmira 9-7-2 Hobart 9-9-1 (if conference opponents count, if not Elmira is 1-4 and Hobart is 2-3). And elmira has 3 more wins against ranked teams (NCAA ranked, I never care about USCHO or D3 Hockey I know they both are full of sh*t). But with numbers that close (essentially as it now stands Elmira has 2 less losses and 2 more ties, and Hobart would have 1 more win), I don't get how Hobart is not even approaching discussion for a pool C with a win.
Click to expand...

You've admitted that Elmira wins the first three criteria. There's your answer right there as to why Elmira is still in the NCAA hunt. The NCAA makes no distinction between a regular season game and a playoff game. The fact that Elmira couldn't win a playoff game isn't supposed to mean anything in their analysis. That said, if one more win, and I don't know whether it does or not, makes Hobart and Elmira's comparison closer, maybe the Hobart does make the jump over Elmira in the smoke-filled room.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I am also surprised there isn't more talk of Hobart for a pool c, should they win tonight, but I understand the reasoning/logic behind Elmira. What's more surprising to be is that it seems like people like Neumann's chances for a pool c if they win tonight much more than Hobart's. I don't get that. Hobart finished the regular season third, while Neumann was dead last. Is Neumann's SOS and other criteria that much more impressive?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

altazo said:
I am also surprised there isn't more talk of Hobart for a pool c, should they win tonight, but I understand the reasoning/logic behind Elmira. What's more surprising to be is that it seems like people like Neumann's chances for a pool c if they win tonight much more than Hobart's. I don't get that. Hobart finished the regular season third, while Neumann was dead last. Is Neumann's SOS and other criteria that much more impressive?
Click to expand...

Wow didn't realize how close it is

Hobart vs Neumann
WIN 0.5962 0 0.6458 1
SOS 0.5523 1 0.5472 0
H2H 1- 1- 1 0 1- 1- 1 0
COP 7- 7- 0 0 10- 5- 2 1
RNK 8-8-1 0 7-7-3 1
Total: 1 - 3

However, if Hobart does win, it will give them the point in RNK'd and H2H. Win % would still yeild a point to Neumann (.635 vs .611). SOS will still be about the same. So I could see Hobart passing Neumann, but then how do they stack up against the next Pool C team?
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

altazo said:
I am also surprised there isn't more talk of Hobart for a pool c, should they win tonight, but I understand the reasoning/logic behind Elmira. What's more surprising to be is that it seems like people like Neumann's chances for a pool c if they win tonight much more than Hobart's. I don't get that. Hobart finished the regular season third, while Neumann was dead last. Is Neumann's SOS and other criteria that much more impressive?
Click to expand...

Apparently that's what the NCAA thinks. If you look at the rankings, Neumann is ranked ahead of Hobart, and behind Bowdoin. Hobart would have to jump over Bowdoin, and Neumann to make it to 6th. I don't think they can pass Elmira. Either Plattsburgh or Oswego is going to get one of the Pool C bids. It's going to take wins by both Norwich and Amherst to put 6th in play for a Pool C bid. That's my take on it.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

NUProf said:
Apparently that's what the NCAA thinks. If you look at the rankings, Neumann is ranked ahead of Hobart, and behind Bowdoin. Hobart would have to jump over Bowdoin, and Neumann to make it to 6th. I don't think they can pass Elmira. Either Plattsburgh or Oswego is going to get one of the Pool C bids. It's going to take wins by both Norwich and Amherst to put 6th in play for a Pool C bid. That's my take on it.
Click to expand...

I still think Utica has a chance. :p
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

NUProf said:
Apparently that's what the NCAA thinks. If you look at the rankings, Neumann is ranked ahead of Hobart, and behind Bowdoin. Hobart would have to jump over Bowdoin, and Neumann to make it to 6th. I don't think they can pass Elmira. Either Plattsburgh or Oswego is going to get one of the Pool C bids. It's going to take wins by both Norwich and Amherst to put 6th in play for a Pool C bid. That's my take on it.
Click to expand...

There are still so many "ifs" right now! I agree with most that the loser of the SUNYAC final is a lock for one of the Pool C bids. Imagine if Middlebury knocks off Bowdoin....and then takes the NESCAC. How far would Amherst drop if they lose to Williams today - would they still get in over Elmira? Could the Neumann/Hobart winner get the nod if BOTH Bowdoin AND Amherst lose today? If St. Norbert gets upset that would throw a huge monkey wrench into things. Could indeed be a very "smoky" room Sunday night....
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

llama said:
There are still so many "ifs" right now! I agree with most that the loser of the SUNYAC final is a lock for one of the Pool C bids. Imagine if Middlebury knocks off Bowdoin....
Click to expand...

Done

llama said:
and then takes the NESCAC.
Click to expand...

Middlebury would get an AQ?

llama said:
How far would Amherst drop if they lose to Williams today - would they still get in over Elmira?
Click to expand...
A. Probably wouldn't unless Plattsburgh beats Oswego then maybe to 4th.
B. Yes they would

llama said:
Could the Neumann/Hobart winner get the nod if BOTH Bowdoin AND Amherst lose today?
Click to expand...
Probably not. It would be Amherst, SUNY, Elmira


llama said:
If St. Norbert gets upset that would throw a huge monkey wrench into things.

Could indeed be a very "smoky" room Sunday night....
Click to expand...

They would probably knock Elmira out, thats about it...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

If Amherst lost to Williams today and got it in would seem like they would make it in based on their win% alone? Based on the the five criteria (I'm looking at the PWC), it looks like Elmira has them head to head and it seems like the Hobart/Neumann winner would also have them beat. So if it was them, Elmira and the ECAC-W winner vying for two Pool C spots might they get bumped?

I guess you're right with regards to St. Norbert...they would simply join the SUNY runner up and leave only one Pool C bid up for grabs. Not too complicated at all!


PSUChamps2001 said:
Done



Middlebury would get an AQ?


A. Probably wouldn't unless Plattsburgh beats Oswego then maybe to 4th.
B. Yes they would


Probably not. It would be Amherst, SUNY, Elmira




They would probably knock Elmira out, thats about it...
Click to expand...
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

llama said:
If Amherst lost to Williams today and got it in would seem like they would make it in based on their win% alone? Based on the the five criteria (I'm looking at the PWC), it looks like Elmira has them head to head and it seems like the Hobart/Neumann winner would also have them beat. So if it was them, Elmira and the ECAC-W winner vying for two Pool C spots might they get bumped?

I guess you're right with regards to St. Norbert...they would simply join the SUNY runner up and leave only one Pool C bid up for grabs. Not too complicated at all!
Click to expand...

It would depend on where the "smoke filled room" ranks them in their final secret rankings. Once the East and West rankings are set, they compare the top two teams in each region against each other for the Pool C bids. I'm not positive how they rank the teams by region, but I would assume the criteria is similar.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Elmira's chances improving with the Norwich victory, the Hobart win, St-Norbert's lead and Amherst making the finals and hopefully winning....
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Pool A:

ECAC-E: Norwich
ECAC-NE: Wentworth
MASCAC: Plymouth
MCHA: MSOE/Adrian
MIAC: G.A.
NCHA: St. Norbert
NESCAC: Middlebury/Amherst
SUNYAC: Platts

Pool C

Oswego for sure
Amherst if they lose
Elmira
St Thomas is my guess, if Amherst wins. I just dont see Hobarts numbers over St T.
 
Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

If they were chossing between the two, St. Thomas gets the point for win% and Hobart has SOS. No COP or H2H points are in play....how do they compare on RNK- could that be the deciding factor?

Also, if Amherst loses the NESCAC and the final Pool C spot came down to Hobart v Amherst it looks like Hobart wins on 4 of the 5 criteria...or am I missing something?


peddler said:
Pool A:

ECAC-E: Norwich
ECAC-NE: Wentworth
MASCAC: Plymouth
MCHA: MSOE/Adrian
MIAC: G.A.
NCHA: St. Norbert
NESCAC: Middlebury/Amherst
SUNYAC: Platts

Pool C

Oswego for sure
Amherst if they lose
Elmira
St Thomas is my guess, if Amherst wins. I just dont see Hobarts numbers over St T.
Click to expand...
 
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