The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

OK, but what you are saying is that you think a Plattsburgh team that loses on Saturday is going to jump over two other teams (one of which won't play and the other can still win another game). The way the process works, Plattsburgh never gets considered until after Hobart and UMass Boston get into the field. Assuming Adrian, Amherst, Oswego, and Norwich all win, the teams up for Pool C (as the rankings stand Tuesday), Trinity, Hobart, UMass Boston all get shots at Pool C before Plattsburgh (not to mention St. Norbert on the other side). I just don't see a scenario where Plattsburgh has a prayer at a Pool C.

Edit: I guess they only have to jump UMass Boston. If the committee felt that way, why not drop them below Plattsburgh on Tuesday? UMass dropping one more spot Tuesday wouldn't have raised any eyebrows. Them dropping behind another team that lost its only game of the week? Oh wait, that was Trinity just last year. Maybe it is possible.

And you're forgetting FOUR things as well...

1. Trinity Affect: The committee could (and has) weighted the criteria on the private rankings differently (and more) the last week.
2. You are also not taking into account that IF Norwich wins, Babson will probably fall off the ranking of which UMB then loses another win against RNK.
3. As teams continue to play, the Last 25% can change which can dramatically affect ones spot
4. Last and most importantly, just because Team A is #3 and Team C is #8 right now does not mean that's who they will end up for a couple of reasons:
a. See #2, one team winning/losing and one team dropping out could have a drastic change with the "once ranked always ranked" not in play anymore
b. As I explained before, because Team A is a head of Team C currently CAN have more to do with Team B in between them. If Team B loses and or wins a Pool A bid, Team A and C can now be directly compared (as I did with Plattsburgh and Hobart). I have not crunched the numbers for Plattsburgh (using the criteria not USCHO/DIII Polls) against the other mentioned teams, but it still comes down to what the Committee will weight this year. Some times it's SOS over H-2-H, some times its RNK over Win %, some times its Last 25%. If you're putting Plattsburgh up against say Trinity or Adrian? No, there are enough differences in the numbers. However the last 3-4 teams are all close enough that even tho they may lose in criteria 3-2, depending on which criteria they've won COULD move on.

Do I like Plattsburgh's chances? No. The loss to Geneseo hurts in the Hobart case for COP and win%, the tie against Oswego hurts their case over UMB as it would have given them a better RNK. The stars would have to align just right, and even then teams can make a case as to why they should be ranked ahead of Plattsburgh and Plattsburgh can make a case as to why they should be ranked ahead of the team(s) that received the bid.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Edit: I guess they only have to jump UMass Boston. If the committee felt that way, why not drop them below Plattsburgh on Tuesday? UMass dropping one more spot Tuesday wouldn't have raised any eyebrows. Them dropping behind another team that lost its only game of the week? Oh wait, that was Trinity just last year. Maybe it is possible.

Remy, clearly you didn't read this last paragraph where I contradicted myself and did admit it was remotely possible. Having all four favorites win their conference tournaments would seem to be even a more remote possibility!

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

And you're forgetting FOUR things as well...

1. Trinity Affect: The committee could (and has) weighted the criteria on the private rankings differently (and more) the last week.
2. You are also not taking into account that IF Norwich wins, Babson will probably fall off the ranking of which UMB then loses another win against RNK.
3. As teams continue to play, the Last 25% can change which can dramatically affect ones spot
4. Last and most importantly, just because Team A is #3 and Team C is #8 right now does not mean that's who they will end up for a couple of reasons:
a. See #2, one team winning/losing and one team dropping out could have a drastic change with the "once ranked always ranked" not in play anymore
b. As I explained before, because Team A is a head of Team C currently CAN have more to do with Team B in between them. If Team B loses and or wins a Pool A bid, Team A and C can now be directly compared (as I did with Plattsburgh and Hobart). I have not crunched the numbers for Plattsburgh (using the criteria not USCHO/DIII Polls) against the other mentioned teams, but it still comes down to what the Committee will weight this year. Some times it's SOS over H-2-H, some times its RNK over Win %, some times its Last 25%. If you're putting Plattsburgh up against say Trinity or Adrian? No, there are enough differences in the numbers. However the last 3-4 teams are all close enough that even tho they may lose in criteria 3-2, depending on which criteria they've won COULD move on.

Do I like Plattsburgh's chances? No. The loss to Geneseo hurts in the Hobart case for COP and win%, the tie against Oswego hurts their case over UMB as it would have given them a better RNK. The stars would have to align just right, and even then teams can make a case as to why they should be ranked ahead of Plattsburgh and Plattsburgh can make a case as to why they should be ranked ahead of the team(s) that received the bid.

Wouldn't it make more sense to keep Babson and drop UMass Boston if UMB has no realistic shot at a Pool C? Babson helps Norwich being ranked and UMass Boston hurts Trinity.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Remy, clearly you didn't read this last paragraph where I contradicted myself and did admit it was remotely possible. Having all four favorites win their conference tournaments would seem to be even a more remote possibility!

Nope, was already writing the response based on your original post. A lot of teams have a better shot if Plattsburgh loses Saturday night then if Oswego does. I still don't see how they leave behind a 3 loss team with a .625 RNK in Oswego.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Wouldn't it make more sense to keep Babson and drop UMass Boston if UMB has no realistic shot at a Pool C? Babson helps Norwich being ranked and UMass Boston hurts Trinity.

You would think so, which brings me back to point #1. We could see a total overhaul come Sunday. Too many times we get caught up in who's #1, #2, #3 ect and forget that pretty much anyone other than a few teams, you can put a blanket over the rest and everyone has a CLEAR case as to why they should and or shouldn't be selected.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Nope, was already writing the response based on your original post. A lot of teams have a better shot if Plattsburgh loses Saturday night then if Oswego does. I still don't see how they leave behind a 3 loss team with a .625 RNK in Oswego.

I agree with you on Oswego with one caveat: If Adrian and Amherst both lose, the Pool Cs could conceivably be Adrian, Trinity, and Amherst although I would take Oswego ahead of Trinity or Amherst.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I agree with you on Oswego with one caveat: If Adrian and Amherst both lose, the Pool Cs could conceivably be Adrian, Trinity, and Amherst although I would take Oswego ahead of Trinity or Amherst.

I am still perplexed at Amherst over OSU
Current
Win % OSU .8333 vs .792
COP OSU .786 vs .750
RNK OSU 2-0-1 vs 2-1-1
Last 25 AMH 6-1-0 vs 5-1-1
SOS AMH
H2H Wash

OSU wins 3-2

If OSU and AMH lose Saturday
Win % OSU .800 vs .760
COP OSU .688 vs .641
RNK Wash 2-1-1 vs 2-1-1
Last 25 AMH 6-2-0 vs 5-2-1
SOS AMH (but Tufts vs PSU would close the gap some)
H2H Wash

It's now 2-2

Is the committee holding SOS as live or die?

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Is the committee holding SOS as live or die?

Judging by what we've seen so far, it's pretty close.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Judging by what we've seen so far, it's pretty close.

Then that wouldn't explain Plattsburgh below UMB since Plattsburgh is some 20+ spots ahead of UMB in SOS and exactly why I say when it comes Sunday we could see some major changes once the committee sits down together and crunch's the numbers some more.

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

2. You are also not taking into account that IF Norwich wins, Babson will probably fall off the ranking of which UMB then loses another win against RNK.

UMass-Boston is 1-2 against Babson, it would help Umass-Boston if Babson is no longer ranked.

I could realistically see them dropping Babson and ranking Williams to help Trinity. (not that I think they need help)

 

[EastCoastHockey]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I agree with you on Oswego with one caveat: If Adrian and Amherst both lose, the Pool Cs could conceivably be Adrian, Trinity, and Amherst although I would take Oswego ahead of Trinity or Amherst.

I haven't gotten to see NESCAC teams play very much this year, do people think the conference would deserve 3 tournament teams if Amherst doesn't win the auto? Part of me thinks Trinity and Amherst steamrolling through the in-conference schedule makes the case a little less strong, but then there are teams like Middlebury and Conn with wins over UMass Boston, Norwich, Plattsburgh... Add into the mix a Williams win over Plattsburgh (while getting outshot 58-18) and I can't really figure it out. I know I know, the criteria. Just have a hard time believing that after the Trinity debacle last year they would do a turnaround a year later and give the conference 3 bids while possibly only 1 to the SUNYAC, East, etc... and 0 to the West.

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Then that wouldn't explain Plattsburgh below UMB since Plattsburgh is some 20+ spots ahead of UMB in SOS and exactly why I say when it comes Sunday we could see some major changes once the committee sits down together and crunch's the numbers some more.

UMass-Boston SOS 0.500
Plattsburgh SOS 0.528

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

The NCAA site keeps reverting back to 2011 spreadsheets, I downloaded them when they were the correct sheets and uploaded them to my website if anyone is interested.
http://patriottreeco.com/Site/DIIIEast.pdf East Region
http://patriottreeco.com/Site/DIIIWest.pdf West Region

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I haven't gotten to see NESCAC teams play very much this year, do people think the conference would deserve 3 tournament teams if Amherst doesn't win the auto? Part of me thinks Trinity and Amherst steamrolling through the in-conference schedule makes the case a little less strong, but then there are teams like Middlebury and Conn with wins over UMass Boston, Norwich, Plattsburgh... Add into the mix a Williams win over Plattsburgh (while getting outshot 58-18) and I can't really figure it out. I know I know, the criteria. Just have a hard time believing that after the Trinity debacle last year they would do a turnaround a year later and give the conference 3 bids while possibly only 1 to the SUNYAC, East, etc... and 0 to the West.

Actually, looking closer at the numbers (and assuming St. Norbert wins the NCHA autobid), I think the Pool Cs are Adrian, UW Eau Claire, and Amherst.

The more I look, the more I think St. Norbert is holding Eau Claire back. In the event Adrian wins Saturday, I think Eau Claire should jump St. Norbert (something d3hockey.com's Bracketology has been advocating for a couple weeks now). They, to me, are a stronger Pool C candidate than St. Norbert is.

Anyway, going back to the original question, I guess I don't think the NESCAC will get three bids. This is fun. I seem to change my mind every five minutes. Hey, that makes me qualified to be on the Committee doesn't it?

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

UMass-Boston SOS 0.500
Plattsburgh SOS 0.528

Just a question, where are you finding the numbers. It would be nice if the NCAA updated their spreadsheets, again. 2011 was a pretty cool year and all, but ...

 

[ECACeastFAN]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

UMass-Boston SOS 0.500
Plattsburgh SOS 0.528

All of the stat analysis is what really concerns me, and I can't be alone on this. UMB & Platty have .028% difference in SOS. Well, this system that's been developed for determining these numbers isn't exactly perfect. .028 is not that drastic of a difference! Actually, depending on the size of the data set, which in this case is the number of teams in D3 hockey, many people would consider this difference statistically irrelevant. Maybe that's why they choose to weight things differently? Do they weight the criteria that has the largest discrepancies the heaviest?

We all say it's more than just Wins & Losses, but SOS has to do with OTHER team's wins and losses, and OWP has to do with OTHER team's wins & losses, and so does RNK. Essentially it's all one huge statistic debacle to figure out what teams are the best, and while I think the criteria is actually pretty accurate, I really don't think it can be trusted to make decisions on who the best teams are. It can choose who the best teams are on paper, yeah, and if that's all anyone cares about then it is what it is, but it just doesn't seem right to me.

I'm still mindblown that some of these conferences get an auto-bid. I'd love to see those team's stats lined up against any of the team's we've been talking about. That's the biggest joke of this whole system, that only 11 teams get to go and conferences with awful hockey actually get an auto-bid, after playing awful schedules all year and not always even performing well within them.

Basically I'm with PSUChamp, and saying that there needs to be a committee who understands hockey who can make some choices away from just the stats, because there is not always statistically enough of a difference between teams to base decisions off them alone.

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Just a question, where are you finding the numbers. It would be nice if the NCAA updated their spreadsheets, again. 2011 was a pretty cool year and all, but ...

I have the spreadsheets in my last post

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

All of the stat analysis is what really concerns me, and I can't be alone on this. UMB & Platty have .028% difference in SOS. Well, this system that's been developed for determining these numbers isn't exactly perfect. .028 is not that drastic of a difference! Actually, depending on the size of the data set, which in this case is the number of teams in D3 hockey, many people would consider this difference statistically irrelevant. Maybe that's why they choose to weight things differently? Do they weight the criteria that has the largest discrepancies the heaviest?

.028% is very significant

Nichols SOS is 0.467, only .033% off of Umass-Boston, would you say they played about equal schedules? I don't think so.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I have the spreadsheets in my last post

I saw it thanks! Are you getting a flight in?

 

[NU Pastime]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I'm still mindblown that some of these conferences get an auto-bid. I'd love to see those team's stats lined up against any of the team's we've been talking about. That's the biggest joke of this whole system, that only 11 teams get to go and conferences with awful hockey actually get an auto-bid, after playing awful schedules all year and not always even performing well within them.

I completely understand this argument but I disagree with it. People are mistaken when they argue that the whole purpose of the regular season is to determine the playoffs. Historically speaking, it's the opposite. I think everyone deserves equal opportunity. That's what competition is all about. Winning the SUNYAC may be 100x more difficult than winning the MASCAC, relatively speaking, but it's just to have champion v. champion to determine who's better. Sure, we can all agree that Plattsburgh is better than Plymouth State, but as champions of their conference Plymouth should have the opportunity to represent their conference and make Plattsburgh beat them on the ice (for example). Win your conference and you get your chance (if your conference has enough teams).