The definitive tournament speculation thread

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I agree:
http://www.uscho.com/blogs/college-hockey/chris/20100226/d-iii-bracketology-verson-1-0.html

Chris, it seems you left Norwich out of your Bracket projections, and also have 5 quarterfinal games without any play-in games. Unless of course you have inside info that this is how the NCAA will solve the flight problems? Leave Norwich out? I think everyone this side of Lake Champlain will be fine with that.

Also, Elmira is closer to Adrian than Oswego is, and I believe it is a 500 mile rule.

 

[Steve Day]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Unfortunately in your Blog you have 10 Teams going to 1/4 Finals

FROM BLOG

That would give us:
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Plattsburgh
E5: Bowdoin
E6: Elmira
E7: Wentworth

W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: St. Scholastica
W4: Adrian

Quarterfinal Pairings:
Wentworth at Oswego
Elmira at Middlebury
Bowdoin at Plattsburgh
Adrian at St. Norbert
St. Scholastica at Gustavus Adolphus



Read more: http://www.uscho.com/blogs/college-...ii-bracketology-verson-1-0.html#ixzz0gl0CyPcd

 

[Chris Lerch]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thanks, guys. It's been fixed. I had mixed two alternatives together before the final edit.

I'm sure upsets will dramatically alter things, but picking the top 11 seemed more cut and dried this year. Fewer teams on the bubble.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thanks, guys. It's been fixed. I had mixed two alternatives together before the final edit.

I'm sure upsets will dramatically alter things, but picking the top 11 seemed more cut and dried this year. Fewer teams on the bubble.

I still don't like the fact that the West gets 4 teams with a bye to the QF - I know that looks like what is going to happen, but it seems to me that there are a number of teams in the East with a better portfolio than Adrian - who will get to go directly to the QFs. Like Oswego for example (until last week I would have put Norwich in this spot)

 

[DH003325]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm guessing the scenario will be(if Elmira wins Pool B):

Adrian goes to East bracket. Assuming favorites win:

It will be an 8-3 with Adrian in the East. SNC would be #1 seed. There would be a play-in of probably CSS at the MIAC champ.
In the East, Norwich, Oswego, Platty, and the NESCAC champ get top 4 seeds and byes into Q-F. Adrian would be at Elmira in a play-in with the winner to Oswego, and the NESCAC Pool C team would host the Northeast Champ, with the winner to Norwich. The other Q-F would be the NESCAC champ vs. Platty.
IMNSHO this is the most likely scenario, but, again, the committee always surprises me.
It should be interesting.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm guessing the scenario will be(if Elmira wins Pool B):

Adrian goes to East bracket. Assuming favorites win:

It will be an 8-3 with Adrian in the East. SNC would be #1 seed. There would be a play-in of probably CSS at the MIAC champ.
In the East, Norwich, Oswego, Platty, and the NESCAC champ get top 4 seeds and byes into Q-F. Adrian would be at Elmira in a play-in with the winner to Oswego, and the NESCAC Pool C team would host the Northeast Champ, with the winner to Norwich. The other Q-F would be the NESCAC champ vs. Platty.
IMNSHO this is the most likely scenario, but, again, the committee always surprises me.
It should be interesting.

The only problem with this scenario is the issue of Geographic Proximity According to the NCAA mileage table, it is more than 500 miles from Adrian to Oswego. That means if Adrian were to beat Elmira, the distance between Oswego and Adrian would require a flight and the NCAA won't set up a bracket that could require a flight if it can be avoided.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I still don't like the fact that the West gets 4 teams with a bye to the QF - I know that looks like what is going to happen, but it seems to me that there are a number of teams in the East with a better portfolio than Adrian - who will get to go directly to the QFs. Like Oswego for example (until last week I would have put Norwich in this spot)

The west only gets four teams to the Quarterfinals if:

1) Adrian wins the MCHA
2) Stevens Point doesn't win the NCHA
3) Brockport doesn't win the SUNYAC
4) Norwich and Middlebury win their leagues
5) Morrisville doesn't win the SUNYAC and either Norwich or Middlebury win their league
6) Maybe something else with west teams

Take your pick, but that's an inclusive list - so if just one thing happens, you *could* see a bracket structure that doesn't advance four western teams to the quarterfinals. How many years have you known the projections a week out to exactly match the final field? Come on, there is almost no chance what Chris/Matt/I are projecting is going to happen.

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The west only gets four teams to the Quarterfinals if:

1) Adrian wins the MCHA
2) Stevens Point doesn't win the NCHA
3) Brockport doesn't win the SUNYAC
4) Norwich and Middlebury win their leagues
5) Morrisville doesn't win the SUNYAC and either Norwich or Middlebury win their league
6) Maybe something else with west teams

At this point, the only thing above that if it didn't happen wouldn't be a monumental upset would be Middlebury not winning the NESCAC. So pretty much what you're saying is that Eastern teams should be rooting for someone other than Beaney's Boys in that conference.

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Amherst loses
CSS losing

Now what?

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Amherst loses
CSS losing

Now what?

Williams bows out too.

I agree with Joecct. Where are our prognosticators???

 

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Rumple who, what?

Rumple who, what?

(Yaaaawwwwnnnn!… lip-smack, lip-smack, lip-smack…) Oh, man… it’s been a while! So, what did I miss over the last 4 years???

Nah, who the hell am I kidding… been lurking the <u>whole</u> <u>time</u>.

Interesting selection year, no doubt. Just be sure to set-up and activate (or resurrect, as the case may be) those AOL IM accounts (and aliases!) in-time to prepare for the annual “Tournament Selection Sunday Discussion Room” (‘chat room’ is so 90’s). Always a hoot.

Cheers!!!
Dave

Awwww, nuts... now I have to edit my sig... :-/

 

[Bill-R-]

Re: Rumple who, what?

Re: Rumple who, what?

(Yaaaawwwwnnnn!… lip-smack, lip-smack, lip-smack…) Oh, man… it’s been a while! So, what did I miss over the last 4 years???

Nah, who the hell am I kidding… been lurking the <u>whole</u> <u>time</u>.

Interesting selection year, no doubt. Just be sure to set-up and activate (or resurrect, as the case may be) those AOL IM accounts (and aliases!) in-time to prepare for the annual “Tournament Selection Sunday Discussion Room” (‘chat room’ is so 90’s). Always a hoot.

Cheers!!!
Dave

Awwww, nuts... now I have to edit my sig... :-/

My AIM has changed I think. LOL Hope all is well Dave! When is RIT coming back to D3? I need to see PSU win another NATTY!.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Williams bows out too.

I agree with Joecct. Where are our prognosticators???

Dude, there's still a game going on. Who exactly do you want me to project in the MIAC in a prognostication with GAc and Augsburg heading into OT?

Give me a few hours

 

[valliant defender]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Is there any scenario where 2 ecac -w teams get into the tourney or is that just a pipe dream?

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Is there any scenario where 2 ecac -w teams get into the tourney or is that just a pipe dream?

Well with the NESCAC teams and CSS tanking there might be a SLIGHT chance both M'Ville and Elmira advance...But i doubt it.

The ECAC West just wan't strong enough this year IMHO.

Josh would know better than me though.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Is there any scenario where 2 ecac -w teams get into the tourney or is that just a pipe dream?

Only if M'ville wins and the committee somehow justifies ignoring the criteria to give the Pool B bid to the tournament champion and slide the other team into Pool C. The way it *should* work is that regardless of the championship game result, Elmira should be in.

Edit: It's been speculated the Pool B/C situation has happened in the past, as recently as last year..

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Only if M'ville wins and the committee somehow justifies ignoring the criteria to give the Pool B bid to the tournament champion and slide the other team into Pool C. The way it *should* work is that regardless of the championship game result, Elmira should be in.

Edit: It's been speculated the Pool B/C situation has happened in the past, as recently as last year..

So you think Elmira should be a lock? Baring major upsets?

I won't hold my breath though with the way NC$$ works. If Elmira loses to M'Ville again on home ice next weekend, they don't deserve to be in.

 

[Collegeman]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

With Scholastica Saints losing to River Falls would it be likely that River falls would now be offered a Pool C bid? Wuld they have to have a close game for Falcons to be considered?

 

[collegehcky2]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So you think Elmira should be a lock? Baring major upsets?

I won't hold my breath though with the way NC$$ works. If Elmira loses to M'Ville again on home ice next weekend, they don't deserve to be in.

Well, to be fair, the NCAA may look at Elmira losing 2x to Oswego (if they lose to Manhattanville) and see that their SOS should be inflated. Although Manhattanville would certainly complicate things as opening around games were concerned. It's tough to argue against Elmira seeing as they've played Oswego 3x, Plattsburgh once, defending National Champions 3x, and Manhattanville (a team that should have been a hell of a lot better this year, right Josh?) 3x.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So you think Elmira should be a lock? Baring major upsets?

If the NCAA did things the way they're suppose to: yes. I have Elmira as the 6th ranked eastern team and M'ville somewhere below 9th (more on that in my next post). But again, does M'ville get Pool B (somehow) if they win? I will give you this: Win and you're in.

With Scholastica Saints losing to River Falls would it be likely that River falls would now be offered a Pool C bid? Wuld they have to have a close game for Falcons to be considered?

Sorry, River Falls needs to win the NCHA. I have them 5th in the west, and with the two teams directly above them done for the year, they can't move up with a loss. For River Falls, it, too is "win or go home".

Manhattanville (a team that should have been a hell of a lot better this year, right Josh?)

That is surely the first time somebody has ever been wrong in a preseason prediction. I'll dig up my poll vs. the final poll and compare in a future post, though. That will be a fun exercise.