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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

fornax said:
i told you gys that the forresters have whatit takes to get the job done. all season we gose over this yet you never listen to me. the fresman are the best bun ch of kids to show up on the dorr step of the orphang. msooe you got opie runnin circles in the head and you beek me and i tell it how it is. adrain will get the suprise and we be doiing the cookin. homer roll to how it be. after the shoin we take it easy at the lubby lounge for some cocktails and i be making that tirp to the stainless coffin next week watch the back cause thats what we do.
Click to expand...

fornax,
Congrat's on the win over MSOE.
If you make the trip to Adrian .......please make sure you wear your helmet.
I think most will get the gist of this post....but, any more bumps to that melon of yours may impact your ability to be coherent. ;) :D
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

fornax said:
i told you gys that the forresters have whatit takes to get the job done. all season we gose over this yet you never listen to me. the fresman are the best bun ch of kids to show up on the dorr step of the orphang. msooe you got opie runnin circles in the head and you beek me and i tell it how it is. adrain will get the suprise and we be doiing the cookin. homer roll to how it be. after the shoin we take it easy at the lubby lounge for some cocktails and i be making that tirp to the stainless coffin next week watch the back cause thats what we do.
Click to expand...

Congrats to your Foresters. They may have lost 6 of 7 games to MSOE this year, but they won when it counted.

Good luck in Adrian.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Well, they're going to need some defense along with the luck. They've given up 10, 11, 5 and 8 goals to Adrian in 4 games this year. They've scored plenty, but you can't win games giving up 8.5 per game.

Hopefully we're done with the Adrian-LFC threadjacking for now. Let's take this to the Adrian thread.
 
Re: Rumple who, what?

Re: Rumple who, what?

Transplanted Tiger Fan said:
(Yaaaawwwwnnnn!… lip-smack, lip-smack, lip-smack…) Oh, man… it’s been a while! So, what did I miss over the last 4 years???

Nah, who the hell am I kidding… been lurking the <u>whole</u> <u>time</u>.

Interesting selection year, no doubt. Just be sure to set-up and activate (or resurrect, as the case may be) those AOL IM accounts (and aliases!) in-time to prepare for the annual “Tournament Selection Sunday Discussion Room” (‘chat room’ is so 90’s). Always a hoot.

Cheers!!!
Dave

Awwww, nuts... now I have to edit my sig... :-/
Click to expand...

How did I ever miss this? Welcome back!
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think there is something wrong with the PWC on USCHO's D-III page
Code: 
Salem State vs St. Scholastica
WIN 0.6875 0   0.7037 1 
OWP 0.4762 0   0.5446 1 
OOP 0.4784 0   0.5395 1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0  3- 3- 2 0
============================================ 
PTS 0             3 
============================================

Salem State vs St. Norbert 
WIN 0.6875 0   0.8600 1 
OWP 0.4762 0   0.5405 1 
OOP 0.4784 0   0.5417 1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0  4- 1- 2 0
============================================ 
PTS 0             3 
============================================

What happened to Head to Head?
CSS beat SSC who beat SNC
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
I think there is something wrong with the PWC on USCHO's D-III page
Code: 
Salem State vs St. Scholastica
WIN 0.6875 0   0.7037 1 
OWP 0.4762 0   0.5446 1 
OOP 0.4784 0   0.5395 1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0  3- 3- 2 0
============================================ 
PTS 0             3 
============================================

Salem State vs St. Norbert 
WIN 0.6875 0   0.8600 1 
OWP 0.4762 0   0.5405 1 
OOP 0.4784 0   0.5417 1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0  4- 1- 2 0
============================================ 
PTS 0             3 
============================================

What happened to Head to Head?
CSS beat SSC who beat SNC
Click to expand...

The National PWC seems to throw up whenever the MASCAC is brought up.

The MASCAC wasn't even in the comparisons for about the first three weeks.

(I know we've got no chance to make the tournament, but it would be nice to be compared fairly, like everyone else.)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The Oswego-Adrian game is unlisted as well, and Oswego's Win% doesn't get a bump for inclusion of that game, so it seems that the national PWC page simply subjects the East- or West-only numbers produced for the regional pages to more matchups rather than actually incorporating the handful of inter-regional games into the numbers.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Responding to the two posts above asking about a lack of Head-to-Head in interregional games...

The primary criteria is specifically listed as "head to head games in the region". USCHO's comparisons only look at those primary criteria. Interregional head to head games are a secondary criteria, and certainly would be considered if applicable. But it's not a flaw in USCHO's listings that those games are omitted. Likewise, interregional common opponents would be considered, but not listed in the PWC numbers.

That being said, the listed comparisons aren't really going to come into play this year, so it's easily ignored.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
Responding to the two posts above asking about a lack of Head-to-Head in interregional games...

The primary criteria is specifically listed as "head to head games in the region". USCHO's comparisons only look at those primary criteria. Interregional head to head games are a secondary criteria, and certainly would be considered if applicable. But it's not a flaw in USCHO's listings that those games are omitted. Likewise, interregional common opponents would be considered, but not listed in the PWC numbers.

That being said, the listed comparisons aren't really going to come into play this year, so it's easily ignored.
Click to expand...

Interregional games are (unfortunately) only slightly more important than games against DII teams. At least they count for the secondary criteria.
 
Re: Rumple who, what?

Re: Rumple who, what?

Bill-R- said:
My AIM has changed I think. LOL Hope all is well Dave! When is RIT coming back to D3? I need to see PSU win another NATTY!. :p
Click to expand...

Now that was uncalled for, Bill!! So in true Corner Crew fashion, let me just say... "YOU SUCK!" :D Just kidding... good to be posting again, my friend, although I must get-over this nasty habit I’ve developed of clicking "Last Page" instead of the thread title. This may take some time to get used to.

As for the thread topic, I would not even hedge a guess at this point on which way the selection committee would lean given all the possible scenarios. I suggest we take-up a collection for Josh to get him a new keyboard after 'spelling-out' the possibilities. Any paint left on those keys, Josh??

What a flippin' mess this is. At first, I had thought the MCHA getting an AQ would clean the process up a bit, but it seems to have just added another complication! (By the way, who is this Adrian anyway?? ;) )

Sticking with what I know (or at least what I think I know), I agree with the simplified statement Josh made earlier regarding Elmira/Manhattanville and the Pool B bid... “Win and you’re in”. In comparison (PWC), they are currently even at 3pts each. However, if M’Ville wins, the H2H becomes a wash, negating that point which is currently held by Elmira. If Elmira wins, it puts a wee-bit of emphasis on the H2H metric. I don’t think there is any question… the ECAC West Tourney winner will advance... again.

Get your popcorn ready for Sunday...
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Alright, first off, my projections for the NCAA Rankings differ than Josh's just a wee bit. Nothing too drastic though.

East
1-Norwich
2-Oswego
3-Middlebury
4-Plattsburgh
5-Bowdoin
6-Elmira
7-Trinity
8-Amherst
9-Manhattanville
10-Hamilton
11-Williams
12-Wentworth
13-Curry
14-Neumann
15-Fredonia


West
1-St. Norbert
2-Gustavus Adolphus
3-St. Scholastica
4-Wis. River Falls
5-Hamline
6-St. Thomas
7-Adrian

My main differences with Josh's rankings. I have Norwich ahead of Oswego, because I determined the primary criteria was too close to call. To put it simply, the loss to Geneseo could come back to bite Oswego in the butt. More on that later.

Secondly, on the western side, I have bumped River Falls ahead of Hamline. In the overall scheme of things it wont matter because neither of these teams are getting a Pool C berth.

Bracket Projection time...

AQ's: Oswego, Norwich, Bowdoin*, Wentworth, St. Norbert, Gustavus Adolphus, and Adrian

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C: Middlebury*, Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica

*If you want to interchange Middlebury and Bowdoin as NESCAC Champs, it has no change on the field. Only difference is Plattsburgh gets the first Pool C spot and Bowdoin the 2nd as both teams beat out St. Scholastica.

First teams out: Wis. River Falls, Hamline, Trinity

Which then creates a 7/4 split and a bracket that looks something like the following.

Play-ins
Wentworth @ Oswego
Elmira @ Middlebury
Bowdoin @ Plattsburgh

NCAA Quarters
Elmira/Middlebury @ Wentworth/Oswego
Bowdoin/Plattsburgh @ Norwich
Adrian @ St. Norbert
St. Scholastica @ Gustavus Adolphus

In this scenario, the loss to Geneseo drops Oswego to #2 East meaning a date with Wentworth in a Play-in game. Of course, this could all change if Oswego beats Plattsburgh again, even if Norwich wins the ECAC East.

Now, here is the "Fun Bracket" if the NCAA feels compelled to play some Russian Roulette with flights.

Play-ins
Adrian @ Elmira
St. Scholastica @ Gustavus Adolphus
Wentworth @ Bowdoin

NCAA Quarters
Adrian/Elmira @ Norwich
Wentworth/Bowdoin @ Oswego
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury
St. Scholastica/Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Norbert
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think it is time we looked into the crystal ball and picked the four teams that will make it to the Lake
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Bracket Projection time...


Play-ins
Wentworth @ Oswego
Elmira @ Middlebury
Bowdoin @ Plattsburgh

NCAA Quarters
Elmira/Middlebury @ Wentworth/Oswego
Bowdoin/Plattsburgh @ Norwich
Adrian @ St. Norbert
St. Scholastica @ Gustavus Adolphus


Now, here is the "Fun Bracket" if the NCAA feels compelled to play some Russian Roulette with flights.

Play-ins
Adrian @ Elmira
St. Scholastica @ Gustavus Adolphus
Wentworth @ Bowdoin

NCAA Quarters
Adrian/Elmira @ Norwich
Wentworth/Bowdoin @ Oswego
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury
St. Scholastica/Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Norbert
Click to expand...

What about the Webb's head explodes because the West gets no byes and two play-ins bracket?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
What about the Webb's head explodes because the West gets no byes and two play-ins bracket?
Click to expand...

I was wondering the same thing. I still maintain Adrian (if in) goes East. It's the middle ground of the two extremes and the one I'd bet on to occur.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matthew Webb said:
I was wondering the same thing. I still maintain Adrian (if in) goes East. It's the middle ground of the two extremes and the one I'd bet on to occur.
Click to expand...

We all know the NCAA will do what it does - "it is what it is," but there's just as much logic in putting St. Norbert into a play-in game as there is in putting Norwich or Oswego in a play in game. It wouldn't be the end of the world for any of those three, but still the one part of fairness in a tournament bracket should be that higher seeded teams should be the ones with the byes. The problems with the extra game is not the issue of being upset by a lower seeded team - heck if you lose, you're out. It's just that a team playing a game on Wednesday is at a disadvantage when playing a rested team on Saturday, and the more games you play the greater the chance of an injury. Whether we get 1 vs. 2 in the quarters or semis or finals doesn't really matter. If 1 can't beat 2 when they meet, then 1 isn't going to win the NC. But if 1 plays a rested #5 on Saturday after playing whoever on Wednesday, now things are now not so fair.

But the NCAA will do what the NCAA does, and whatever it is will probably be a surprise.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
We all know the NCAA will do what it does - "it is what it is," ...
But the NCAA will do what the NCAA does, and whatever it is will probably be a surprise.
Click to expand...

Euphemism for illogical. ;)
 
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