The definitive tournament speculation thread

[oldguard]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Norwich
Middlebury
Oswego
St. Norbert

 

[d3follower]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If there are four (mid)western teams and no flying between regions for the first round (as many seem to be assuming), won't there be 2 (mid)western teams in the final four???

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If there are four (mid)western teams and no flying between regions for the first round (as many seem to be assuming), won't there be 2 (mid)western teams in the final four???

But, they make two play-in games in the W instead of QF games, OR send Adrian to the East.

 

[d3follower]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

But, they make two play-in games in the W instead of QF games, OR send Adrian to the East.

I know that they could do that (and I hope they will) but the assumption on this board seems to be otherwise.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

But, they make two play-in games in the W instead of QF games, OR send Adrian to the East.

It would make zero sense to have 2 play in games in the west in a 7/4 split. If they do that, Adrian would have to fly in the 2nd round if they win. If the NCAA is going to take that risk, they would be better served sending Adrian to Elmira for a play in to give SNC a bye. If they are going to take a risk of flying Adrian in the quarters, they would not put SNC in a play in game and give a team like Elmira a bye when it can be easily avoided.

I think we can all but rule out the chance of 2 play ins in the west as it just doesn't make sense.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

It would make zero sense to have 2 play in games in the west in a 7/4 split. If they do that, Adrian would have to fly in the 2nd round if they win. If the NCAA is going to take that risk, they would be better served sending Adrian to Elmira for a play in to give SNC a bye. If they are going to take a risk of flying Adrian in the quarters, they would not put SNC in a play in game and give a team like Elmira a bye when it can be easily avoided.

I think we can all but rule out the chance of 2 play ins in the west as it just doesn't make sense.

Wherever they send Adrian may not matter (I accept the fact that I have potentially angered a lot of Adrian fans, and the fact that I could be quite wrong as well). For the record I support the MCHA autobid, but it really does raise hob with the brackets.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think it is time we looked into the crystal ball and picked the four teams that will make it to the Lake

NU, OSU, SNC, PSU/Midd (I know, I cheated).

It would make zero sense to have 2 play in games in the west in a 7/4 split. If they do that, Adrian would have to fly in the 2nd round if they win. If the NCAA is going to take that risk, they would be better served sending Adrian to Elmira for a play in to give SNC a bye. If they are going to take a risk of flying Adrian in the quarters, they would not put SNC in a play in game and give a team like Elmira a bye when it can be easily avoided.

I think we can all but rule out the chance of 2 play ins in the west as it just doesn't make sense.

Unless Adrian loses the MCHA. Then, with UST now in the field, two western play-ins suddenly makes a lot of sense. Webb is probably right that Adrian in the tournament sends them to Elmira. In a 7-4 split you can then do the three western teams playing down to one. In an 8-3 split, you can have one western QF and the same number of flights if Adrian won.

Wherever they send Adrian may not matter (I accept the fact that I have potentially angered a lot of Adrian fans, and the fact that I could be quite wrong as well). For the record I support the MCHA autobid, but it really does raise hob with the brackets.

Adrian raises hob with the brackets. There are seven other MCHA teams that make things perfectly wonderful. We've spent a lot of time on Adrian around here the last three years. It only takes 60 minutes to make that moot.

 

[polarbearfan]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

IN: St. Thomas

1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline

And then there were 10

Not Sure where GAC is on the list now, I'll leave that up to the experts!

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

IN: St. Thomas

1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline

And then there were 10

Not Sure where GAC is on the list now, I'll leave that up to the experts!

I knew when I made that list people were going to use it far too seriously. It was more meant to be used like in my exercises below. Understanding that genie is out of the bottle, so let me try to update it using the current NCAA rankings:

1. Norwich
2. Oswego
3. St. Norbert
4. Middlebury
5. Plattsburgh
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. St. Scholastica
9. Hamline
10. Amherst
(11. River Falls)

Even with the loss, it would take an adjustment in ranked teams to move Gustavus below CSS or Bowdoin, I think. Unfortunately, an unseen adjustment in ranked teams is coming Sunday. Yay! I'm still calling anything from 8-3 to 6-5 as possible.

(And because somebody will ask:

8-3
NU loses ECAC-East, Bowdoin wins NESCAC, SNC wins NCHA.
East gets EE, EW, NS, SU, NE, winners plus Norwich, Middlebury, Plattsburgh
West gets NC, MC, MI winners

6-5
NU wins ECAC-East, Middlebury wins NESCAC, SNC loses NCHA
East gets EE, EW, NS, SU, NE, plus Plattsburgh
West gets NC, MC, MI, St. Norbert, Gustavus Adolphus.

Translation: Even the "experts" don't know ****.)

 

[Dyce]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just to toss in a couple more unlikely-but-possibles:

NU, SNC, and Midd all get knocked off (Midd might have to do this in the finals rather than the semis to avoid putting itself at risk), Oswego wins the SUNYAC - The Plattsburgh Doomsday Scenario

NU, SNC, Midd, AND Oswego come up short - one looooooong conference call.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just to toss in a couple more unlikely-but-possibles:

NU, SNC, and Midd all get knocked off (Midd might have to do this in the finals rather than the semis to avoid putting itself at risk), Oswego wins the SUNYAC - The Plattsburgh Doomsday Scenario

Yup, that's how Platy stays home.

NU, SNC, Midd, AND Oswego come up short - one looooooong conference call.

Might actually be the shortest possible phone call. Midd stays home, everybody gets a good night's rest.

 

[Dyce]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Argh, good call. Maybe they'd hang around and chat for a while about what the hell happened to precipitate that carnage

 

[BulldogProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NU, OSU, SNC, PSU/Midd (I know, I cheated).


Adrian raises hob with the brackets. There are seven other MCHA teams that make things perfectly wonderful.

It really is just us, isn't it? Any suggestions for where we should relocate to make things better? Any place with good Thai food would work for me.

 

[valliant defender]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I still say it's possible that M;ville upsets EC and the ncaa takes both due to rankings and really clouds the issue.

 

[NorthernLite]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Adrian raises hob with the brackets. There are seven other MCHA teams that make things perfectly wonderful. I've spent a lot of time on Adrian around here the last three years.

Fixed your post.

 

[spwood]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I still say it's possible that M;ville upsets EC and the ncaa takes both due to rankings and really clouds the issue.

Well, Plattsburgh/Oswego and Bowdoin/Middlebury are all in line for Pool C ahead of everyone else (assuming favorites win, of course, which already is down the drain!) If Elmira loses (that'll be 8 for them), I think St. Scholastica gets in ahead of them. (I'm thinking the Western Committee moves them back in front of GAC, whose schedule was not that tough and doesn't seem to have any signature wins. SSC, at least, has a win over St. Norbert.)

 

[NorthernLite]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Wherever they send Adrian may not matter (I accept the fact that I have potentially angered a lot of Adrian fans, and the fact that I could be quite wrong as well). For the record I support the MCHA autobid, but it really does raise hob with the brackets.

There are so many obstacles and issues coming into play, and the Adrian factor seems to have disrupted this stable, though somewhat dysfuntional world that was NCAA DIII hockey.

DIII followers are trying to see how this can work applying NCAA rules and logic.. and they are stumped because of one old standard on geographic proximity. So now we contemplate a myiad of alternatives...none of which make much sense, when a simple little ammendment or exception on travel could restore order an make matters a lot less complicated.

All the speculators and prognosticators are exhausting themselves trying to figure out how this square peg will fit in a round hole.
The NCAA can make the hole round.

A high seed shouldn't have to play an early round....NOT FAIR.
West is West and East is East unless we're talking DIII hockey ???

The footprint of DIII hockey has changed and I suggest the regulations need to be revised to accomodate.

Good luck to those still in the race.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

There are so many obstacles and issues coming into play, and the Adrian factor seems to have disrupted this stable, though somewhat dysfuntional world that was NCAA DIII hockey.

DIII followers are trying to see how this can work applying NCAA rules and logic.. and they are stumped because of one old standard on geographic proximity. So now we contemplate a myiad of alternatives...none of which make much sense, when a simple little ammendment or exception on travel could restore order an make matters a lot less complicated.

All the speculators and prognosticators are exhausting themselves trying to figure out how this square peg will fit in a round hole.
The NCAA can make the hole round.


The footprint of DIII hockey has changed and I suggest the regulations need to be revised to accomodate.

Good luck on that - The NCAA needs special rules for hockey, but won't because it chooses to use the same rules for all team sports. Imagine if they tried that one in DI

It's not that I disagree - quite the contrary, but the NCAA is the NCAA

 

[Collegeman]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Earlier fro Josh C
arey "If UWRF beats SNC (the only way three NCHA teams could be considered), SNC should still grab a Pool C bid. If the other favorites win, it would come down to...
Unfortunately, there is no selection criteria for "make a game interesting" or "has doen what Falcons have done". See my analysis above for why UWRF needs to win to get in. "


So Josh since RF beat CSS twice and tied once and sainst only beat RF once in 4 games because Saints had a tougher schedule and beat Norbert once that puts them still back in the national tourney then, even the Gusties then as well

So Falcons have to win as the ONLY to have a chance to get in nationals then

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So Josh since RF beat CSS twice and tied once and sainst only beat RF once in 4 games because Saints had a tougher schedule and beat Norbert once that puts them still back in the national tourney then, even the Gusties then as well

So Falcons have to win as the ONLY to have a chance to get in nationals then

Based on their entire body of work this season relative to the other teams in contention, River Falls must beat St. Norbert to make the NCAA tournament. It's as simple as that.