The definitive tournament speculation thread

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Something slightly new this week, these are my starting projections for the rankings in each region. This will help me determine where my methodology differs from the NCAA, and should give us an idea how I can improve the final projections.

East
1 Oswego
2 Norwich
3 Plattsburgh
4 Middlebury
5 Bowdoin
6 Elmira
7 Trinity
8 Amherst
9 Williams
...
10+ Manhattanville*
...
~14 Wentworth^
~15 Curry

West
1 St. Norbert
2 Gustavus Adolphus
3 St. Scholastica
4 Hamline
5 River Falls
6 St. Thomas`
7 Adrian

* Manhattanville may not be exactly 10th. I only ranked through 9 as those were the surefire teams worthy of consideration. Manhattanville is below those teams, but their positioning is variable.

^ Wentworth and Curry may or may not be ranked, and be in those spots, but I have the notation that I have Wentworth ahead of Curry.

` We'll throw St. Thomas here. But they might not actually be ahead of Adrian. Or Augsburg. Speaking of which let's all mock Augsburg being ranked some more

Projected Conference Winners

ECAC East: Norwich
ECAC Northeast: Wentworth
ECAC West: Elmira
NESCAC: Middlebury
SUNYAC: Oswego
NCHA: St. Norbert
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
MCHA: Adrian

Pool C Contenders
East: Plattsburgh, Bowdoin, Trinity
West: Scholastica, Hamline, River Falls

Top 3: Plattsburgh, Bowdoin, Scholastica

Tournament Seedings

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira (Pool B)
E7 Wentworth

W1 St. Norbert
W2 Gustavus
W3 Scholastica
W4 Adrian

More on possible seeding, bracket possibilities in the next post.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

To quote an epic thread: "Adrian, Adrian, Adrian." Let's assume the Bulldogs do as nearly everyone expects them to and captures their third consecutive MCHA title and first NCAA tournament bid. Where do they go? There are several options (which use the seedings from my previous post unless otherwise noted):

Opening round games without flights:
1) at Elmira
2) at St. Norbert

Option 1) can fit into just about any bracket configuration imaginable, since Elmira, even with a win over Manhattanville, probably tops out at a seed of E5. Option 2) Would open the possibility of some sort of flight in the quarterfinal round, no matter how you slice it, and thus seems especially silly.

Quarterfinal games without flights:
1) at Elmira
2) at St. Norbert

Here, Option 1) becomes ridiculous, given the relative seeding, but Option 2) requires a flight in an 8-3 split, or two western teams to both be flown in a 7-4 split.

And those are the only teams that can accommodate Adrian without a flight.

So what does that mean?

A bracket that leaves Adrian against SNC west in a 7-4 split is the same as last year's and definitively requires 2 total flights. It would look like...

Opening Round
E7 at E2
E6 at E3
E5 at E4

Quarterfinals
W4 at W1
W3 at W2
E5/E4 at E1
E6/E3 at E7/E2

Now consider sending Adrian to Elmira and then E1 Oswego

Opening Round
W4 at E6
E7 at E5
W3 at W2

Quarterfinals
W4/E6 at E1
E7/E5 at E2
W3/W2 at W1
E4 at E3

This would feature anywhere from 1 total flight (Adrian loses in the Opening round) to 3 total flights (Adrian makes the Final Four). Does the NCAA feel like gambling? Also worth noting because this would involve an Adrian flight in the quarterfinals, Adrian could actually be sent to any E1 or E2 seed (whichever is most appropriate for the bracket or whichever Adrian's opponent could travel to).

What about an 8-3 split with Adrian? This would feature the NCHA, MIAC, and MCHA winners with three eastern Pool C teams.

For Adrian to be considered as a western team, somebody would have to fly (or have the potential to fly) as early as the Quarterfinals. For Adrian to be considered as an eastern team... somebody would have to fly, or face the potential to fly, as early as the Quarterfinals. So rather than force St. Norbert into an opening round game, we'll see them east, which would create a bracket like:

Opening Round
W3 at E6
E8 at E4
E7 at E5

Quarterfinals
W2 at W1
E8/E4 at E3
E7/E5 at E2
W3/E6 at E1


What about a 6-5 split? Well, this is incredibly unlikely right now, but with Adrian as W5, we'd really have to consider...

Opening Round
W4 at W3
E6 at E3
E5 at E4

Quarterfinals
W4/W3 at W2
W5 at W1
E6/E3 at E2
E4/E5 at E1

I mean, I suppose we could consider something like...

Opening Round
W5 at E5
W4 at W1
W3 at W2

Quarterfinals
W5/E5 at E1
W3/W2 at W4/W1
E6 at E2
E4 at E3

Which contains the same number of total flights, or...

Opening Round
W5 at E5
E6 at E2
E4 at E3

Quarterfinals
W5/E5 at E1
W4 at W1
W3 at W2
E4/E3 at E6/E2

But that could potentially send three western teams to the final four, so who would want to consider that?

Edit: Just for potential discussion, these brackets become pretty straightforward if you remove Adrian.

7-4 Option 1

Opening Round
E7 at E2
E6 at E3
E5 at E4

Quarterfinals
W4 at W1
W3 at W2
E5/E4 at E1
E6/E3 at E7/E2

7-4 Option 2

Opening Round
W4 at W1
W3 at W2
E7 at E6

Quarterfinals
E7/E6 at E1
W3/W2 at W4/W1
E5 at E2
E4 at E3

8-3 Option

Opening Round
W3 at W2
E8 at E5
E7 at E6

Quarterfinal
W3/W2 at W1
E5/E8 at E1
E7/E6 at E2
E4 at E3

6-5 Option

Opening Round
W5 at W4
E6 at E3
E5 at E4

Quarterfinals
W5/W4 at W1
W3 at W2
E6/E3 at E2
E5/E4 at E1

Next post: Who's in/Who's out?

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So having just considered possible bracket combinations (with Adrian - for discussions without Adrian, just scroll through last year's thread), what are some of the teams that can fit into those brackets?

Tournament Locks:
Oswego
Norwich
St. Norbert

These are teams that are essentially guaranteed to make the tournament even if they lose their conference tournament. The fact the list is three teams long when there are three Pool C bids is not a coincidence. I was asked tonight if GAC could overtake SNC if SNC loses the Peter's Cup and GAC wins the MIAC. I don't see it. But that comes with the same caveat as all my rankings so far (which is so important to note I'm going to separate it out and bold it)

I have not, to this point, in any of my analysis, considered secondary criteria and the impact it may have on the committee's decisions. When we get closer to the tournament, incorporating this data will be important to making a guess about the field.

So, yeah, those three teams are in.

Likely In:
Plattsburgh, Middlebury

Plattsburgh would be much advised to do their typical postseaon beating of Oswego and eliminate all doubt, because an 0-3 record against the Lakers would not help their case. In a year lackinf a strong corps of Pool C contenders, Middlebury has a pretty impressive resume. But the same person who asked me if GAC could overtake SNC also pointed out borderline Pool C contenders who don't make their conference championship game haven't had much luck as at-large candidates recently. That's a strong consideration for one of the next group.

Could Make It Without Pool A
Bowdoin, Elmira, Gustavus Adolphus

As mentioned in my replies to Prez above, how the committee handles Pool B is a bit of a mystery. With any luck, Elmira will win the ECAC-West and eliminate any doubt. But even if they don't and the committee somehow gives Pool B to Manhattanville, Elmira has a shot as an at-large candidate. Bowdoin is the team mentioned in the previous paragraph as potentially needing another win. If the favorites win out, however, they are the second Pool C team in. If Gustavus Adolphus, one of the favorites, doesn't win, but the others do, they should have a decent chance at getting a chance to avenge their title game loss through Pool C. They would very likely replace St. Scholastica as the west's best chance at an at-large bid.

If All The Cards Fall Right

St. Scholastica, Trinity, Hamline

Each of these teams has a chance, with CSS currently the strongest, but one upset away from not being considered. Trinity and Hamline each have a chance based on the interpretation of the criteria moving them around the rankings.

Need To Win To Get In

Everybody Else not in the MASCAC or Northeast-10 still in a playoff bracket. (Possible exception: Manhattanville).

Screwed

Everybody Else


So as a rough estimate (rough estimate), take the following list of 11 teams. Drop a team from the bottom every time a team not on the list receives an automatic qualifier. Cross of a team on the list every time they receive an automatic qualifier. At the end of the week, the top three teams would be your expected Pool C teams.

1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline
11. Trinity

If your team isn't on this list, you're hoping for either an automatic qualifier, or a hope I miscalculated the bottom of the list and whatever deity you feel most comfortable with is a fan of your team as well.

The list means that you can determine exactly what course of events needs to happen for Team X to make the tournament. Just run through a scenario where various teams are removed from either the top (automatic qualifiers) or bottom (non-listed teams qualifying) to get the desired teams in the tournament. Though it should be noted the list is subject to potential calculation errors and should only be used as a rough guide. Also consider the ECAC-West an AQ for the purposes of the list.

 

[collegehcky2]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

That is surely the first time somebody has ever been wrong in a preseason prediction. I'll dig up my poll vs. the final poll and compare in a future post, though. That will be a fun exercise.

I didn't mean to sound like I was calling you out. Manhattanville should have been a lot better than they really were this year.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I didn't mean to sound like I was calling you out. Manhattanville should have been a lot better than they really were this year.

Too late, see the next thread

 

[oldguard]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So as a rough estimate (rough estimate), take the following list of 11 teams. Drop a team from the bottom every time a team not on the list receives an automatic qualifier. Cross of a team on the list every time they receive an automatic qualifier. At the end of the week, the top three teams would be your expected Pool C teams.

1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline
11. Trinity

Josh, Maybe I misunderstood your list criteria, but I believe you left out Adrian as AQ from the MCHA.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh, Maybe I misunderstood your list criteria, but I believe you left out Adrian as AQ from the MCHA.

I believe he said this was the list of the top 11 Pool C bids. Top 3 after AQs get Pool Cs. Each AQ on this list removes that team from this list. Each AQ off of this list eliminates the lowest remaining team (thus, trinity will not get a Pool C, by virtue of being cancelled out by the MCHA AQ.)

But then again, I may be the one misunderstanding him.

 

[oldguard]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I believe he said this was the list of the top 11 Pool C bids. Top 3 after AQs get Pool Cs. Each AQ on this list removes that team from this list. Each AQ off of this list eliminates the lowest remaining team (thus, trinity will not get a Pool C, by virtue of being cancelled out by the MCHA AQ.)

But then again, I may be the one misunderstanding him.

Thanks for picking that up. I believe you are correct and I misunderstood.

 

[DIIIFan]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not to many upsets this weekend. But what happens to CSS, does WRF get a C pool spot for making the NCHA championship game, does NCHA get 3 teams in for CSS has the resume?? Does the ECAC West get only 1 team in this year?? How fall will the domino effect go as to who gets in or not??
Oswego '89

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Let me see if I get this straight

Here is Josh's list:
1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline
11. Trinity

When we add the ECAC-NE and the MCHA, we bump Hamline and Trinity off the bottom for possible Pool C consideration.

But if somebody not on the list gets an AQ, we bump the next team from the bottom (CSS).

Is that right????

 

[Collegeman]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not to many upsets this weekend. But what happens to CSS, does WRF get a C pool spot for making the NCHA championship game, does NCHA get 3 teams in for CSS has the resume?? Does the ECAC West get only 1 team in this year?? How fall will the domino effect go as to who gets in or not??
Oswego '89

Earlier someoen posted that they would have to win the NCHA vs St Norberts to get to Pool C but I think any team that has doen what Falcons have done should get an invite , if anything they would make a game interesting I think.

 

[DH003325]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

My prediction is that the NCAA Committee will do something that NOBODY predicted.

 

[Dyce]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think the relative placement of Middlebury and Plattsburgh could be interesting. Looking at the criteria as of today:

- Head to head is obviously a wash
- Middlebury takes Win% and common opponents, but by a relatively small margin that might not bear consideration
- Plattsburgh clearly takes SOS
- Middlebury clearly takes OOP and record vs. ranked

Now, we know from the past that committee tends to place a premium on strength of schedule. However, I can certainly see the combination of slight statistical leads, clear statistical leads, and a possible major shift in ranked opponent records (given that they're calculated dynamically now, Fredonia dropping out while Amherst and Williams held on somewhere near the bottom of the list would keep Middlebury at 4-2-2 while Plattsburgh dropped to 2-4-3), as being a pretty strong case to keep Middlebury ahead in the poll.

The implication there in light of Josh's prediction list is that it creates a (admittedly unlikely) situation where Plattsburgh could get shut out of the tourney. As currently conceived, this would be impossible: either Plattsburgh wins and takes the AQ, or Oswego wins, disappears from the top of the list, and guarantees Plattsburgh a Pool C slot. Flip-flop Midd and Plattsburgh, however, and a combination of losses by the Cardinals, Panthers, Norwich, and SNC would leave Plattsburgh out to dry. Again, not exactly a likely scenario, but one that makes things more interesting for the Cardinals than the selection shaking out as Josh predicts.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Let me see if I get this straight

Here is Josh's list:
1. Oswego
2. Norwich
3. St. Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gustavus Adolphus
7. Bowdoin
8. Elmira
9. St. Scholastica
10. Hamline
11. Trinity

When we add the ECAC-NE and the MCHA, we bump Hamline and Trinity off the bottom for possible Pool C consideration.

But if somebody not on the list gets an AQ, we bump the next team from the bottom (CSS).

Is that right????

That's the theory. And based on my calculations right now, that would be accurate - the first team not on that list, not in the NE or MCHA, to make it into the tournament bumps CSS out of the field. That's how precarious it is for the Saints right now. It's possible Manhattanville should be added as team #12 to account for the Pool B insanity, but I'm not convinced on that.

The one thing the list doesn't take into consideration is changing valuations - and that's the number one caveat with this plan. Say Bowdoin loses in the semifinals... are they still above CSS on the list? I say yes, but I think this gives a very good approximation for people of what each team would need to get in.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not to many upsets this weekend. But what happens to CSS,

Probably done, but still with an outside shot.

does WRF get a C pool spot for making the NCHA championship game,

No. Here's why:

    St. Scholastica vs Wis.-River Falls
WIN      0.7037  1           0.6786  0
OWP      0.5446  1           0.5215  0
OOP      0.5396  0           0.5432  1
H2H     1- 2- 1  0          2- 1- 1  1
COP    11- 2- 5  1         11- 6- 1  0
RNK     3- 3- 2  1          3- 5- 1  0
============================================
PTS              4                   2

If we're talking UWRF as Pool C, their WIN goes down, their SOS goes up, but probably not enough to beat CSS, they get another loss in COP and RNK. Maybe if they had swept CSS this year, or something along those lines, but I don't see how you could give that to River Falls after losing to SNC.

does NCHA get 3 teams in for CSS has the resume??

If UWRF beats SNC (the only way three NCHA teams could be considered), SNC should still grab a Pool C bid. If the other favorites win, it would come down to...

Bowdoin vs St. Scholastica
WIN      0.7381  1           0.7037  0
OWP      0.5007  0           0.5446  1
OOP      0.5149  0           0.5396  1
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
RNK     4- 2- 1  1          3- 3- 2  0
============================================
PTS              2                   2

This is one of those areas where secondary criteria would probably play a factor. Bowdoin would see a decrease in WIN, but solid increase in SOS (especially if they win in the semifinals). Hamilton will likely remain at the bottom of the eastern rankings, making Bowdoin 5-3-1 in RNK. No common opponents, but worth noting one of the secondary criteria is record in the last 25% of the season. CSS is 2-2-3 in that span, Bowdoin is 7-0-0.

What if Bowdoin wins the NESCAC?

    Middlebury vs St. Scholastica
WIN      0.7727  1           0.7037  0
OWP      0.5413  0           0.5446  1
OOP      0.5198  0           0.5396  1
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
RNK     4- 2- 2  1          3- 3- 2  0
============================================
PTS              2                   2

Middlebury with a slight decrease in WIN, but slight increase in SOS, if we're talking Pool C. 5-3-2 vs RNK if they lose in the finals, 4-3-2 in the semifinals. 7-0-0 in the last 25%. So, CSS fans probably want to see Bowdoin win the NESCAC, but shouldn't root too hard, since it's not very likely.

I am comfortable in saying: only 2 NCHA teams will make it, maximum.

Does the ECAC West get only 1 team in this year??

Boy do I hope so. Because otherwise it's making a mockery of the process. If Elmira wins, yes, it's one for sure. If Manhattanville wins, it should be one still, but I wouldn't bet on it.

How fall will the domino effect go as to who gets in or not??

See my previous posts.

Earlier someoen posted that they would have to win the NCHA vs St Norberts to get to Pool C but I think any team that has doen what Falcons have done should get an invite , if anything they would make a game interesting I think.

Unfortunately, there is no selection criteria for "make a game interesting" or "has doen what Falcons have done". See my analysis above for why UWRF needs to win to get in.

My prediction is that the NCAA Committee will do something that NOBODY predicted.

The only prediction guaranteed to be true on selection Sunday.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think the relative placement of Middlebury and Plattsburgh could be interesting. Looking at the criteria as of today:

- Head to head is obviously a wash
- Middlebury takes Win% and common opponents, but by a relatively small margin that might not bear consideration
- Plattsburgh clearly takes SOS
- Middlebury clearly takes OOP and record vs. ranked

Now, we know from the past that committee tends to place a premium on strength of schedule. However, I can certainly see the combination of slight statistical leads, clear statistical leads, and a possible major shift in ranked opponent records (given that they're calculated dynamically now, Fredonia dropping out while Amherst and Williams held on somewhere near the bottom of the list would keep Middlebury at 4-2-2 while Plattsburgh dropped to 2-4-3), as being a pretty strong case to keep Middlebury ahead in the poll.

The implication there in light of Josh's prediction list is that it creates a (admittedly unlikely) situation where Plattsburgh could get shut out of the tourney. As currently conceived, this would be impossible: either Plattsburgh wins and takes the AQ, or Oswego wins, disappears from the top of the list, and guarantees Plattsburgh a Pool C slot. Flip-flop Midd and Plattsburgh, however, and a combination of losses by the Cardinals, Panthers, Norwich, and SNC would leave Plattsburgh out to dry. Again, not exactly a likely scenario, but one that makes things more interesting for the Cardinals than the selection shaking out as Josh predicts.

Everything he said. I *think* Plattsburgh should be ahead of Middlebury, but how the NCAA ranks them is another measure entirely. I'll be very curious to see what they do. I'll try to adjust my "11 contenders" list Tuesday night based on the NCAA rankings, rather than my current guess.

 

[Collegeman]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

What are the 3 college campuses the fisrt round are played at?

 

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

What are the 3 college campuses the fisrt round are played at?

The higher seed of the two teams playing each game.

Provided they put in the proper paperwork...

 

[fornax]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

i told you gys that the forresters have whatit takes to get the job done. all season we gose over this yet you never listen to me. the fresman are the best bun ch of kids to show up on the dorr step of the orphang. msooe you got opie runnin circles in the head and you beek me and i tell it how it is. adrain will get the suprise and we be doiing the cookin. homer roll to how it be. after the shoin we take it easy at the lubby lounge for some cocktails and i be making that tirp to the stainless coffin next week watch the back cause thats what we do.

 

[Hammer]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Well, fornax, it's a shame that you're only coming for one game. Your boys can score in this league, but they're fishing the puck out of their own net an awful lot. We'll see in a couple of years, but you're not going to like the end result Friday night.