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The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

hab said:
The newly calculated numbers (drum roll, please), starting with the highest (courageous) to lowest (wimpy) are...
Click to expand...
What OnMAA is questioning likely isn't your math or the reasoning behind it, but the subjective piece -- the choice of adjectives. You could have gone with (risky) and (conservative). It's like investing, where no one strategy is right for everyone. Plus, it works out about the same, where sometimes no matter what you do, it's wrong.
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

ARM said:
What OnMAA is questioning likely isn't your math or the reasoning behind it, but the subjective piece -- the choice of adjectives. You could have gone with (risky) and (conservative). It's like investing, where no one strategy is right for everyone. Plus, it works out about the same, where sometimes no matter what you do, it's wrong.
Click to expand...

The labels (Courageous and Wimpy) were used with tongue firmly planted in cheek. You will note that in my first post I offered the alternative labels of Crazy and Wise. But by now probably more than a few are wondering what in the world is the point (if any) that I am trying to make in all of this. It's a simple one. In Las Vegas style betting there is an incentive to go out on a limb and predict upsets now and then, whereas in most of these pick-the-winners threads there are no odds and so there is a tendency to just go with the favourites in all or most games. I was impressed that in this case several people had bucked that trend and picked some big upsets, so I wanted to recognize that. Here's my own (proven to fail) method of forecasting these things: take your best shot at figuring out which is the better team at this point in the season and then allow your heart to swamp that judgement in all of the games where your favourite team(s) are involved.
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

hab said:
However, I went back and checked my calcs and found several (ahem):o errors, so I redid the math. .......snip snip...... The newly calculated numbers (drum roll, please), starting with the highest (courageous) to lowest (wimpy) are:
Cali 3.37
DC 78-82 2.85
Hux 2.67
RinkTaxi 1.79
mattj711 1.76
sheba 1.62
hab 1.29
SlewFoot 1.16
HockeyTeacher 0.76
AtlanticPuck 0.27
OnMAA 0.02
Click to expand...

So you had to redo the numbers to ensure I ended up with the "Lowest/Wimpiest" score.....but please follow along.....

hab said:
The labels (Courageous and Wimpy) were used with tongue firmly planted in cheek. You will note that in my first post I offered the alternative labels of Crazy and Wise.
Click to expand...

Me thinks my score is a reflection of being the wisest/smartest predictor of the lot. :D

hab said:
Here's my own (proven to fail) method of forecasting these things: take your best shot at figuring out which is the better team at this point in the season and then allow your heart to swamp that judgement in all of the games where your favourite team(s) are involved.
Click to expand...

I would submit that is how most, if not all, posters make their picks, yours truly included. I try to not cloud my picks with my favorites, but as I mentioned earlier today, humans use emotions and passion with these sorts of things, so they often can't help themselves. This is why I let professionals manage my investments.

For what it is worth, was fully aware of the TIC comments, mine are pretty much the same. That is the fun part of these things. In my younger days, used to run the Office NFL pool (against the spread). It was one of the best office bonding exercises in the book. People were really into it and for 5 measly bucks a week everyone had a ton of fun. Half of the proceeds to the winner, other half to charity. The best part of the fun and office team building was the one up ribbing going on week after week.
 
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Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

OnMAA said:
Me thinks my score is a reflection of being the wisest/smartest predictor of the lot. :D
Click to expand...

When I pick I often go for the "no brainer", but in instances where I believe a "weaker" team has a player with the potential to carry or steal a game, or change the momentum enough to throw the favorite off their game, I'll pick that team. For instance, I watched the Northeastern - Union game the week before I picked Union to beat Syracuse, and having also seen Syracuse play, I thought there was a good chance Union's goalie Lundberg* keeps them in. From what I saw against the Huskies, they have a much more potent offense than in years past, and if they could keep tight with the Husky speed and scoring prowess, they can certainly challenge the Orange. I probably think too much, but at least it gives me a good chance to rise to the top of the biggest, BRAVEST loser list:p

*Of course, had I gotten the memo that she wasn't playing that game, I would have crashed and burned:)
 
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Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Friday, October 28:
Princeton at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Brown at Colgate EC 7:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at Clarkson EC 7:00 pm ET
Harvard at St. Lawrence EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Cornell EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, October 29:
Brown at Cornell EC 3:00 pm ET
Princeton at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at St. Lawrence EC 4:00 pm ET
Harvard at Clarkson EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Colgate EC 4:00 pm ET
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Trillium said:
Friday, October 28:
Princeton at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Brown at Colgate EC 7:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at Clarkson EC 7:00 pm ET
Harvard at St. Lawrence EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Cornell EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, October 29:
Brown at Cornell EC 3:00 pm ET
Princeton at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at St. Lawrence EC 4:00 pm ET
Harvard at Clarkson EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Colgate EC 4:00 pm ET
Click to expand...

Third most "courageous / crazy" picks (score of 2.7), mostly on the basis of bets against Colgate. May be on to something there...?
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Friday, October 28:
Princeton at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Brown at Colgate EC 7:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at Clarkson EC 7:00 pm ET
Harvard at St. Lawrence EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Cornell EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, October 29:
Brown at Cornell EC 3:00 pm ET
Princeton at Rensselaer EC 3:00 pm ET
Quinnipiac at Union EC 3:00 pm ET
Dartmouth at St. Lawrence EC 4:00 pm ET
Harvard at Clarkson EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Colgate EC 4:00 pm ET
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week two lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week two lineup.

DC78-82 said:
FMP - Thanks - I need all the help I can get!

I probably could have run at 50% ties this week, but I made a stab at predicting which of 2 evenly matched teams would have puck luck. Let's see how that turns out:confused::rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Well you nailed it right on the one tie you did end up picking. !
 
The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week three Results.

The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week three Results.

This week we got a four way tie for first with 9 correct picks, but factoring the percentage score, Hockey Teacher got the bragging rights for this week with a 75% success rate. Well Done Teach. Honorable mention to Power Poolie MattJ, Sheba and Risk Assessment Hab for getting nine right as well, albeit with a lesser success rate at 69%.

This weeks results
Code: 
Poolie	Count	Sum	Perc
Hteach	12	9	75%
MattJ	13	9	69%
Sheba	13	9	69%
Hab	13	9	69%
DC	13	8	62%
SlewF	13	8	62%
Trillium	12	7	58%
GoCu	12	7	58%
OnMAA	13	7	54%
Apuck	13	7	54%
RinxT	13	7	54%
Cali	13	7	54%
HUX	13	5	38%
 
The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Another week with a Tuesday Matchup. Get yer picks in on time....Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Yearly Standings after week 3

The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Yearly Standings after week 3

Yearly standings after three weeks:

Code: 
	Acc Pts	Acc Pct
MattJ	30	66.7%
Hteach	27	67.5%
OnMAA	27	60.0%
DC	24	58.5%
Apuck	23	59.0%
Sheba	23	59.0%
SlewF	22	64.7%
RinxT	21	46.7%
HUX	19	48.7%
Trillium	14	63.6% * Missed One week
VicB	13	61.9% * Missed two weeks
Hab	9	69.2% * Missed two weeks
GoCu	7	58.3% * Missed two weeks
Cali	7	53.8% * Missed two weeks


Best Success Rate (Must Play at least 75% of games)

Code: 
	Acc Pts	Acc Pct
Hteach	27	67.5%    
MattJ	30	66.7%
SlewF	22	64.7%
OnMAA	27	60.0%
Apuck	23	59.0%
Sheba	23	59.0%
DC	24	58.5%
HUX	19	48.7%
RinxT	21	46.7%
-------------------------------------------
Folks below missed more than 25% of games
-------------------------------------------
Hab	9	69.2%
Trillium	14	63.6%
VicB	13	61.9%
GoCu	7	58.3%
Cali	7	53.8%
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET[/QUOTE]
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool - Week four lineup.

Another week with a Tuesday Matchup. Get yer picks in on time....Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
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Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell
Yale at Providence
Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara
Brown at Princeton
Clarkson at Union
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
Yale at Quinnipiac
Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara
Brown at Quinnipiac
Clarkson at Rensselaer
St. Lawrence at Union
Yale at Princeton EC
Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

So...generally speaking, last week the best strategies seemed to avoid the extreme ends of the Wimpy / Courageous scale. However, this week it looks like we are all decidedly WIMPY. The first 4 all came in with a perfect "0" (mattj711, SlewFoot, OnMAA, Hockey Teach, all went with the favourite in every game). Atlantic Puck dipped a toe in the Courage pool with a small (.02 points) Colgate upset over Niagara, Sheba went waist deep by predicting Colgate would beat Niagara twice and RPI would take St. Lawrence (total 0.86 courage points). I have to admit it is tough to avoid the favourites this week, but RPI will knock off the Saints (0.82 courage points for ole hab):
Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
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Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

hab said:
So...generally speaking, last week the best strategies seemed to avoid the extreme ends of the Wimpy / Courageous scale.
Click to expand...

There did not appear to be a standard strategy for success. Each of the players with 9 points had very different strategies to come out on top.

hab said:
However, this week it looks like we are all decidedly WIMPY. The first 4 all came in with a perfect "0" (mattj711, SlewFoot, OnMAA, Hockey Teach, all went with the favourite in every game).
Click to expand...

Not Wimpy at all. The smart players are all onto, or is that into, your system. :D
 
Re: The 2011-2012 ECAC Posters Pool

Tuesday, November 1:
Syracuse at Cornell NC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Providence NC 7:00 pm ET

Friday, November 4:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Princeton EC 7:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Union EC 7:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer EC 7:00 pm ET
Yale at Quinnipiac EC 7:00 pm ET

Saturday, November 5:
Colgate at Niagara NC 2:00 pm ET
Brown at Quinnipiac EC 4:00 pm ET
Clarkson at Rensselaer EC 4:00 pm ET
St. Lawrence at Union EC 4:00 pm ET
Yale at Princeton EC 4:00 pm ET

Sunday, November 6:
New Hampshire at Dartmouth NC 2:00 pm ET
 
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