Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 4/21) most likely outcomes are:
West: LAK in 5 (43.0%),
STL in 5 (100%), PHX in 6 (49.7%),
NSH in 5 (100%)
East: OTT in 6 (38.3%), WAS in 6 (47.1%), FLA in 6 (46.6%), PHI in 6 (51.7%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 18.5% - LAK 81.5%
STL 100.0% - SJS 0.00%
PHX 74.7% - CHI 25.3%
NSH 100.0% - DET 0.00%
East
NYR 38.0% - OTT 62.0%
BOS 28.0% - WAS 72.0%
FLA 71.5% - NJD 28.5%
PIT 23.4% - PHI 76.6%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Notes: In the six series yet to be decided, the team that was originally the underdog is now favored in 5 of them.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------------
|WEST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------------|
| | VAN | STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------------|
| |PHX|XXXXX|13.8%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------|
|A|NSH|13.8%|4.67%|60.9%|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------|
|A|CHI|4.67%|XXXXX|XXXXX|20.6%|
|Y|---|-----------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|81.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
-------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
|EAST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
| | NYR | BOS | FLA | PIT | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|7.61%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |PIT|1.78%|0.71%|7.47%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|PHI|5.83%|2.32%|24.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|NJD|3.03%|XXXXX|XXXXX|2.97%|9.76%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |WAS|27.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|7.46%|24.5%|12.7%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|17.3%|31.9%|2.97%|9.74%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------