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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

toews.jpg


Finally saw the gwg on NHL Network. Fell asleep (passed out sorta) after the third and had to scramble to Hawks site to find the result.

EPIC FAIL on me... :o


But we won and get another game! :D:D
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Is that 7 or 8 straight playoff OT games for the Hawks? I've lost track.

Chicago Blackhawk Hockey: Ulcer City
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Why would it be fair for someone with no history of these types of hits to get the same punishment as someone with a long history of these types of hits?
Because they committed the same offense? Plus of course we've had players in this league with repeat offenses of various sorts and they haven't remotely seen the book thrown at them like this. No reasonable way one can spin this as any sort of consistency. This isn't to NBA levels of inconsistency, yet, but it's not headed in a good direction.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

The repeat thing is completely justified, IMO. We can't get inside of players' heads, and it's the best alternative.

Anyone can screw up. So while we don't look the other way, we don't throw the book at them, either. There's a ton of support for that approach, and I don't think it's going anywhere. We're not going to see one-strike-and-out.

It does create a problem, though. You can take advantage of that leniency. Having a sliding scale addresses that. By the time you get to the 5th or 6th offense . . . eff 'em. The player can take what the league gives, and like it.

Now, if only the NHL could just follow *that* consistently, I'd have no problems.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/21) most likely outcomes are:

West: LAK in 5 (43.0%), STL in 5 (100%), PHX in 6 (49.7%), NSH in 5 (100%)
East: OTT in 6 (38.3%), WAS in 6 (47.1%), FLA in 6 (46.6%), PHI in 6 (51.7%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 18.5% - LAK 81.5%
STL 100.0% - SJS 0.00%
PHX 74.7% - CHI 25.3%
NSH 100.0% - DET 0.00%

East
NYR 38.0% - OTT 62.0%
BOS 28.0% - WAS 72.0%
FLA 71.5% - NJD 28.5%
PIT 23.4% - PHI 76.6%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Notes: In the six series yet to be decided, the team that was originally the underdog is now favored in 5 of them.

Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------------
|WEST |             HOME      |
|CONF.|-----------------------|
|     | VAN | STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------------|
| |PHX|XXXXX|13.8%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------|
|A|NSH|13.8%|4.67%|60.9%|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------|
|A|CHI|4.67%|XXXXX|XXXXX|20.6%|
|Y|---|-----------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|81.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
-------------------------------

-------------------------------------------
|EAST |                HOME               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | NYR | BOS | FLA | PIT | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|7.61%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |PIT|1.78%|0.71%|7.47%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|PHI|5.83%|2.32%|24.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|NJD|3.03%|XXXXX|XXXXX|2.97%|9.76%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |WAS|27.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|7.46%|24.5%|12.7%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|17.3%|31.9%|2.97%|9.74%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

What the hell? The team that scored first won?

With the way Fleury played, I think he had a tee time in the morning...
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Imagine the ratings disaster of a Florida-Phoenix final. Would NBC try to fool everybody and just replay one of the Pitt-Detroit series?
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

This is period 7 in ~24 hours -- going with the 4th liners

Knuble
Kelly

Redlight goes for
MoJo
Saint Peverley
 
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