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MLB 2011 Part 1

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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Trevor Hoffman retires, but is the all-time saves leader a first-ballot HOF'er??

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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

SteveP said:
Trevor Hoffman retires, but is the all-time saves leader a first-ballot HOF'er?
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In 25 years people will still remember Ty Cobb and Tom Seaver. They will not remember Trevor Hoffman unless they are baseball historians. So if that's the criterion, then no.

But it shouldn't be the criterion. There should only be the first ballot -- one and done. In that case, yeah, he should make it. Even if the save is the second stupidest statistic in baseball, after the win.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

The other thing about Hoffman that might hurt him, is he only has about 1100 innings pitched in 18 years. That's only 61 innings a year if you assume he was available to pitch most of each season.

Hard to vote a guy in with that little playing time.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
The other thing about Hoffman that might hurt him, is he only has about 1100 innings pitched in 18 years. That's only 61 innings a year if you assume he was available to pitch most of each season.

Hard to vote a guy in with that little playing time.
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That's the position, though. It would be kind of like saying it's hard to vote for a shortstop because he didn't make many put outs.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
The other thing about Hoffman that might hurt him, is he only has about 1100 innings pitched in 18 years. That's only 61 innings a year if you assume he was available to pitch most of each season.

Hard to vote a guy in with that little playing time.
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Kepler said:
That's the position, though. It would be kind of like saying it's hard to vote for a shortstop because he didn't make many put outs.
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And even if you look at him compared to other relivers, he probably did not get as many save situations as, say, Rivera, over a similar timeframe (I have not actually looked at the numbers). His team has to be winning for him to do his job. Is it his fault if they're not? You can't really compare career closers to other pitchers. Innings pitched doesn't seem like a fair stat for a career closer on a team that didn't win that much. There must be some kind of Stat Geek number that sheds more light on Hoffman's credentials.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jen said:
And even if you look at him compared to other relivers, he probably did not get as many save situations as, say, Rivera, over a similar timeframe (I have not actually looked at the numbers). His team has to be winning for him to do his job. Is it his fault if they're not? You can't really compare career closers to other pitchers. Innings pitched doesn't seem like a fair stat for a career closer on a team that didn't win that much. There must be some kind of Stat Geek number that sheds more light on Hoffman's credentials.
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Even without Sabermetrics, a decent first approximation would be percentage of blown saves.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jen said:
And even if you look at him compared to other relivers, he probably did not get as many save situations as, say, Rivera, over a similar timeframe (I have not actually looked at the numbers). His team has to be winning for him to do his job. Is it his fault if they're not? You can't really compare career closers to other pitchers. Innings pitched doesn't seem like a fair stat for a career closer on a team that didn't win that much. There must be some kind of Stat Geek number that sheds more light on Hoffman's credentials.
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I should be clear. I think he deserves to get in.

But as you know, relievers have a tough time getting in. Only recently did guys like Eckersley get in, and isn't Lee Smith still on the outside?

It is not his fault that the closer has become specialized, no. But i think this is where a stat like WAR/VAR comes in handy. If you assume he only pitches 1 inning and his team is leading by 3 or less runs, and 3 outs ends the game. How many times would someone else have converted that save?

Sabermetrics is what got Blyleven in finally (a change in the way we think about stats), and I think eventually Hoffman and the other closers will get in because of them as well.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
Sabermetrics is what got Blyleven in finally (a change in the way we think about stats), and I think eventually Hoffman and the other closers will get in because of them as well.
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Too bad we can't kick people out because of them. ;)
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
Even without Sabermetrics, a decent first approximation would be percentage of blown saves.
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Hard to find career numbers for that. Hoffman is about 88.7 save percentage. From what I can find on Rivera, he's 91.9, but is missing a few early years from his blown save/SVO stats. Hoffman compares favorably to Fingers (75.7) and Sutter (74.8) as far as percentage, but they played in the early era of specialized closers, and I'd wager were not used in the same way closers are today (and I think they spent more time starting than Hoffman did, but I did not check the numbers).

JF: and I wasn't knocking the stats - I didn't know if there was something specific to closers that would give a better idea of Hoffman's place in history. It would be helpful if there was. I think he should get in, too (but am obviously biased). I agree closers are a little neglected and hard to quantify when it comes to the HOF. I would hate to see something like Hoffman's lack of postseason opportunities hurt his numbers, especially when compared to Rivera. Maybe you're right and they need more time and a bigger sample size to weed out the truly great ones.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

I also think "saves" are a bogus stat in a sense. You could have a 1-0 lead the entire game and 3 different relievers could pitch 1 inning each, but only the guy who threw the 9th gets the save for it.

What he did is no more important then 2 guys before him. In fact he would not have his opportunity if not for the pitchers before him. It's probably why the "hold" was invented.

You could also argue a game was saved in the 6th inning when the bases were loaded with no outs and your reliever came in and kept anyone from scoring to keep the game 1-0. Not in the 9th when it was a 1-2-3 frame.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Jim Caple's updated <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/110112_misery_index&sportCat=mlb">Baseball Fan Misery Index</a>.

Honestly, I thought the Brewers are a little high. I'm not that miserable. Sure, they've never won anything - ever - but it could be worse. We do have a young, exciting team to watch. If we hadn't made the playoffs in 2008, I'd agree with a ranking that high. I guess it's all relative. When you have the longest playoff-less streak in baseball, even making the playoffs feels like winning the World Series. :)
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jen said:
Jim Caple's updated <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/110112_misery_index&sportCat=mlb">Baseball Fan Misery Index</a>.

Honestly, I thought the Brewers are a little high. I'm not that miserable. Sure, they've never won anything - ever - but it could be worse. We do have a young, exciting team to watch. If we hadn't made the playoffs in 2008, I'd agree with a ranking that high. I guess it's all relative. When you have the longest playoff-less streak in baseball, even making the playoffs feels like winning the World Series. :)
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Nice that he pointed out the misery inflicted by Red Sox fans is greater than any endured by Red Sox fans.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Have to laugh at baseball's system when Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon get pay raises in salary arbitration...
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

MINNEAPOLIS -- Carl Pavano is headed back to the Minnesota Twins with a new $16.5 million, two-year contract.
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Not happy with that price point, but that's what one good year will get ya.
 
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