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Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

dxmnkd316 said:
Yeah, that's fine and dandy that the WCHA games and playoffs are in there. But you absolutely need to enter the other games across the league to even hit the side of the barn. There are dozens of other games as important (or more important) as the dozen or so games in the WCHA playoffs.
Click to expand...

I agree totally with this. My earlier post was intended to say something like this: On the surface, there is greater upward potential than I would have realized... The same goes for the post about UNH. Obviously, in that one, everything would need to break just right...

I assume that when you refer to these dozens of other games more important, that you are referring to several that impact the COp and TUC rankings of teams ahead of us. I have not been paying close attention, so could you please enlighten me as to which of these bear watching.

For example, I know that Mass vs Maine is important for us, because of the COp part of the Maine comparison.

And then, perhaps the most important would be the sum of all results and how they collectively change different schools' RPI.

Is there more?

Thanks,
I am wanting to know more about who to pull for and against tonight and next weekend.
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

The comparison with UNH is definitely in play now.

UNH hosts a non-TUC while MN hosts UAA; if MN advances, and Mankato is eliminated in Denver, the Gophers will hold the comparison with UNH. If MN sweeps UAA, UNH will have to win the HE tournament to have any chance of re-taking the comparison (since the worst MN can do TUC-wise is 2-1 in that scenario, while the best UNH can do is 2-0).

More on the TUC cliff:
UAA is a TUC no matter what.
Mankato and Bemidji can only be TUCs by advancing to the F5.
Michigan State cannot be a TUC - they were eliminated by Alaska tonight.
Cornell must win its series next weekend to remain a TUC (UNH was 1-0 against them).

Other comparisons:
- MN can flip Dartmouth next weekend by gaining 0.003 in RPI (doable if Dartmouth's series goes to 3 games while MN sweeps).
- MN will win the comparison with RPI if the Engineers lose to Colgate; even if RPI wins, this one is basically a toss-up (similar to the CC comparison) and will hinge upon which team has the better record from now on.
- MN can flip WMU next weekend in much the same fashion as it can with Dartmouth (slim RPI gap).
- I don't believe MN can flip the BU or Maine comparisons next weekend without those teams being swept while MN sweeps. The RPI gap is just a bit too big right now.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Bakunin said:
The comparison with UNH is definitely in play now.

UNH hosts a non-TUC while MN hosts UAA; if MN advances, and Mankato is eliminated in Denver, the Gophers will hold the comparison with UNH. If MN sweeps UAA, UNH will have to win the HE tournament to have any chance of re-taking the comparison (since the worst MN can do TUC-wise is 2-1 in that scenario, while the best UNH can do is 2-0).

More on the TUC cliff:
UAA is a TUC no matter what.
Mankato and Bemidji can only be TUCs by advancing to the F5.
Michigan State cannot be a TUC - they were eliminated by Alaska tonight.
Cornell must win its series next weekend to remain a TUC (UNH was 1-0 against them).

Other comparisons:
- MN can flip Dartmouth next weekend by gaining 0.003 in RPI (doable if Dartmouth's series goes to 3 games while MN sweeps).
- MN will win the comparison with RPI if the Engineers lose to Colgate; even if RPI wins, this one is basically a toss-up (similar to the CC comparison) and will hinge upon which team has the better record from now on.
- MN can flip WMU next weekend in much the same fashion as it can with Dartmouth (slim RPI gap).
- I don't believe MN can flip the BU or Maine comparisons next weekend without those teams being swept while MN sweeps. The RPI gap is just a bit too big right now.
Click to expand...

Assuming MN sweeps and there are no upsets in the first round what PWR will MN (likely) have going into the F5?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

We're in. Assuming no sub-16 winners in the conference tourneys outside of RIT, we're in.

Sweep UAA and lose to UMD. That's the bare minimum. If you go WLW and lose to Duluth, hello offseason.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

To answer the question about what happens this week, I put in all of today's games, and then next week's series as well, assuming the home teams won every series.

I used all sweeps, except RPI/Cornell going 3 games (Cornell is home), Princeton/Dartmouth going 3 games (Dartmouth is home), Ferris State/Western Michigan going 3 games (Western is home), Northeastern/BU going 3 (BU is home), and Maine/Merrimack going 3 games (Merrimack is home).

My result was that Minnesota moved all the way to 12th in the PWR. With this script (John Whelan's at slack.net) I can't examine closely the resulting comparison's this quickly. I would assume that Minnesota would still need equal results at the F5 compared to Western, BU, NH, Dartmouth and CC and perhaps a win on Thursday to stay ahead of Maine and RPI who woudl not be playing.

So, without trying every possibility, I think it's safe to say that this point that for the most part, 3 straight wins from here puts the Gophers in. I am kind of addicted to this script, so I will probably play with it more this week.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

dxmnkd316 said:
We're in. Assuming no sub-16 winners in the conference tourneys outside of RIT, we're in.

Sweep UAA and lose to UMD. That's the bare minimum. If you go WLW and lose to Duluth, hello offseason.
Click to expand...

You beat me to it. What if Maine beats Merrimack and then loses in the HE Final 4?
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

I need to recacluate. I missed a reseeding in a different conference's tournament. This changes things I'm sure.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

So I was playing around a little more.

This is what I found:
1) Maine/Merrimack makes no difference. In fact, if Maine wins the series, Merrimack falls so far that Minny moves to 11th.
2) BU/NU makes no difference.

But,
3) The Western Michigan series makes a big difference. This is because the RPI margin is so tight. So, if WMU sweeps, Minny would be 15th with a sweep of their own. If WMich loses even just one game, Minny goes to 11 or 12.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Did you reseed the tourneys? Because if Maine wins, I have the Gophers dropping in the PWR to 15...
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

I haven't tried anything beyond next weekend yet, if that is what you mean. That is too advanced for what I have time for right now. And, for what I have done, I am assuming all home teams win tonight.

So I have:
HE: BC/Mass; NH/Vt; BU/NU; Merrimack/Maine (Home teams first)
AHA: RIT/AIC; Conn/mercy; Holy Cross/Canisius; AFA/Sacred Heart
ECAC: Union/Harv; Yale/Quinn; Dart/Prince; Cornell/RPI
CCHA: Mich/Lake; Notre/Alaska; Miami/NoMich; WMU/FSU
WCHA: UND/MTU; DU/Mankato; UNO/BSU; UMD/SCSU; Minn/AA; CC/Wisc

Is this right for next week?

I probably won't do much else until tonight's results are in.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Yeah, because the reseedings important.

I don't see how Minnesota gets to #11. The gophers would need to make up 8 comparisons to get there. I don't see how that's possible.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Do you know how the committee breaks ties?
For example:
If 4 teams have the same number of comparisons won, do they sort that by which won the most comparisons among the teams? Or, do they simply use RPI as a tie-breaker?
The result I am looking at right now (which only goes up to next Sunday night) has the Gophers at #11, but its a tie with RPI, UNH, and Merrimack. Sorting by individual comparisons they win the tie, but by RPI they come out 3rd.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

RPI is the final tiebreaker. Even if it wasn't, I don't see Minnesota tying for 11th.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

SanTropez said:
"So you're sayin I have a chance"
Click to expand...

More than a chance. I think it's bordering on theirs to lose. All they have to do is sweep Anchorage. This isn't something that a team playing as well as Minnesota is should have a problem doing.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

dxmnkd316 said:
More than a chance. I think it's bordering on theirs to lose. All they have to do is sweep Anchorage. This isn't something that a team playing as well as Minnesota is should have a problem doing.
Click to expand...

That would be great to get in... then just win 2 games and head back to the X, no biggie. :)

Thanks for all the hard work, it's interesting to see how these other games from different conferences affect the PWR so much.


Edit: Does the Colgate RPI game tonight matter either way?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Not significantly. Minor, minor changes in the RPI. No comparisons flipped.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Seeming sweeping Anchorage is something the Gophers HAVE to do, if anyone looks past this weekend to the F5 I am going to slap them. Hard.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Certainly they can do some damage by making it to the F5 finals should they go WLW in the first round. But I think that's borderline unrealistic. We'd need to go through UMD AND UND.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

I got to go Dxmnkd. I think I see how we are looking past each other. You have run the whole scenario through, and I am still answering the question from earlier from someone else : The one that said,
"Assuming no upsets, where will Minnesota be entering next weekend?"

I have run a few things through all the way. What I get in just a quick few runs (really needs more time to work it over more), if Minny sweeps AA and then loses to UMD, I get in the 14/15 range. Give them a win over UMD and a loss to UND, and it goes to more like #12.
Does that agree with what you have?
 
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