Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

[SanTropez]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Seeming sweeping Anchorage is something the Gophers HAVE to do, if anyone looks past this weekend to the F5 I am going to slap them. Hard.

Not looking past them at all, it's just nice to know that we have a shot at the NCAA's if we can win 2 at home.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Certainly they can do some damage by making it to the F5 finals should they go WLW in the first round. But I think that's borderline unrealistic. We'd need to go through UMD AND UND.

Sorry, I couldn't resist one more. Just ran a test.
Vs AA WLW
vs UMD W
vs UND L

All other rounds won by home team (with a few 3 game series next week)

I get UMN #12

I think this is because the net difference is to add one L and one W to the record, so the RPI doesn't change much. But, it's more TUC wins.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Yeah, a WLW and a L vs. UMD drops us to #18 overall.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Not significantly. Minor, minor changes in the RPI. No comparisons flipped.

...except for the fact that if RPI loses, MN takes that comparison.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

...except for the fact that if RPI loses, MN takes that comparison.

Ok, from here on out, assume everything I say (as has been the case the whole time) that all of the playoffs are complete, and the top seed has won unless specified.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

With RPI losing to toothpaste, MN has swung that comparison and will retain it if they make it to the F5. Sucks for RPI but great for MN as this is one more comparison they don't need to worry about if they make it to the X.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

With RPI losing to toothpaste, MN has swung that comparison and will retain it if they make it to the F5. Sucks for RPI but great for MN as this is one more comparison they don't need to worry about if they make it to the X.

Since I'm being castigated by Brent...

1 Yale 28
2 Boston College 27
3 North Dakota 26
4 Union 24
5 Michigan 23
6 Denver 21
7 Merrimack 21
8 Nebraska-Omaha 21
9 Notre Dame 20
10 Miami 20
11 Minnesota-Duluth 19
12 New Hampshire 17
13 Dartmouth 15
14 Minnesota 14
15 Western Michigan 14
16 Colorado College 14
17 Boston University 13
18 Rensselaer 13
19 Maine 11
20 Alaska 9
21 RIT 6
22 St. Cloud State 6

Assume top seeds win. Reseeds are automatically calcuated. Blah blah blah.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Is that an all-sweep scenario? I assume that it is. I don't think MN makes it in if they go 2-1 against UAA and lose to UMD.

Another fly in the ointment is Maine faces Merrimack in the HE playoffs - they KILLED them recently, so that series is a prime upset possibility that would keep Maine ahead of MN.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

What happens if SCSU beats UMD and advances to the F5? I feel this is a real possibility.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Is that an all-sweep scenario? I assume that it is. I don't think MN makes it in if they go 2-1 against UAA and lose to UMD.

Another fly in the ointment is Maine faces Merrimack in the HE playoffs - they KILLED them recently, so that series is a prime upset possibility that would keep Maine ahead of MN.

Yes. And you're correct. I've been preaching sweep since the end of the BSU game. You go WLW vs. UAA and you need to start beating the higher seeds. :eek;

NMU upsetting Bowling Green changes things...

1 Yale 28
2 Boston College 27
3 North Dakota 26
4 Union 24
5 Michigan 23
6 Miami 21
7 Merrimack 21
8 Nebraska-Omaha 21
9 Notre Dame 20
10 Denver 20
11 Minnesota-Duluth 19
12 New Hampshire 17
13 Dartmouth 15
14 Minnesota 14
15 Western Michigan 14
16 Colorado College 14
17 Rensselaer 14
18 Boston University 13
19 Maine 10
20 Alaska 9
21 Princeton 6
22 RIT 6

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

What happens if SCSU beats UMD and advances to the F5? I feel this is a real possibility.

We would face CC in the first round. Which brings in more assumptions (Gophers advance an extra round).

It would move us up to 13th.

1 Yale 28
2 North Dakota 27
3 Michigan 26
4 Boston College 25
5 Union 23
6 Merrimack 23
7 Notre Dame 21
8 Denver 20
9 Nebraska-Omaha 20
10 New Hampshire 19
11 Miami 19
12 Minnesota-Duluth 18
13 Minnesota 14
14 Rensselaer 14
15 Boston University 13
16 Maine 13
17 Dartmouth 13
18 Colorado College 13
19 Western Michigan 12
20 RIT 8
21 Alaska 8
22 Wisconsin 6

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

While I know you guys will continue to do this because it is fun to take on the challenge, but I hope you don't actually think that every higher seed will win. When is the last time that happened? There is always something crazy that happens this time of year. Colgate and BGSU have already shown us this. I like to have a relative idea of what will happen, but I still say we need to sweep and get at LEAST one win in the F5.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

While I know you guys will continue to do this because it is fun to take on the challenge, but I hope you don't actually think that every higher seed will win. When is the last time that happened? There is always something crazy that happens this time of year. Colgate and BGSU have already shown us this. I like to have a relative idea of what will happen, but I still say we need to sweep and get at LEAST one win in the F5.

Yeah, I figured someone would bring this up at some point. To adapt a phrase: higher seeds winning is a terrible assumption, except for all the other ones. It's impossible to predict upsets. And if you do, it screws up virtually every other matchup in the tournament. Especially those with multiple reseedings. It's simply impossible to run every scenario.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Yeah, I figured someone would bring this up at some point. To adapt a phrase: higher seeds winning is a terrible assumption, except for all the other ones. It's impossible to predict upsets. And if you do, it screws up virtually every other matchup in the tournament. Especially those with multiple reseedings. It's simply impossible to run every scenario.

I agree that there is no better way to predict these things. Just making sure no one is hanging their hat on it. I'll gladly eat crow, though!

Obviously the message is, win. Win win win.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Does anyone know which conferences have a 3rd place game in their tournament? That could be a double-edged sword for a school like WestMichigan. Win this week, then lose the semi. Then, either help or hurt themselves bad in the 3rd place game.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Oh ****. I completely forgot about 3rd place games. ****.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

PLEASE DISREGARD THIS POST. THE INFORMATION IN IT IS FAR INCOMPLETE

Thanks again dxmnkd,
I have been redoing a few things as well.
With all home teams winning, I got slightly different than you.

I got
Yale 28
BC 27
UND 26
Mich 25
Union 23
Miami 21
Merri 21
Denver 21
UNO 20
Notre Da 20
UMD 19
WeMich 17
UNH 16
Dartmouth 14
Minnesota 14
CC 14
RPI 12
BU 12
SCSU 8
Alaska 8
RIT 7
Wisco 5
Cornell 5
Ferris St 4
Princeton 3
UAA 3
AFA 2
Q pac 1

So, something must be wrong with my script. Can you help me find it if I post my script of the remaining games?

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

By the way everyone,
For whoever cares, because it doesn't seem to make a great difference under the assumption that UNH and Dartmouth both sweep this week, but Mankato seems to be a TUC with one win this week.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Probably the third place games.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Again, in the FWIW department,
Priceless over in the "Too early for the PWR?" thread has this same scenario that you are running, dxmnkd316. My results are now matching his. The script on the slack.net web site is easy to play with, too.