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Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Bakunin said:
Impressed yet? That was without the aid of spreadsheets or additional research. It was just an off the cuff guess based on what I saw this past weekend. :p

Brent - my memory is a bit hazy, but I'm pretty sure it was Saturday. I think SCSU-UW were playing the 3rd place game, and we were just hanging out at the GPL tailgate.
Click to expand...

Not really. If I were to have guessed, I'd have put them right in that range as well. No offense or anything.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

I don't much care - Brent's the one trying to make me into some sort of pairwise god. :p
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Pairwise Disciple is probably a good term. My spreadsheet is the Pairwise God. :p :p
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Bakunin said:
Impressed yet? That was without the aid of spreadsheets or additional research. It was just an off the cuff guess based on what I saw this past weekend. :p

Brent - my memory is a bit hazy, but I'm pretty sure it was Saturday. I think SCSU-UW were playing the 3rd place game, and we were just hanging out at the GPL tailgate.
Click to expand...

I thought it was Fri and Sat, and best-case you were recalculating within a minute. Worst case was about 5. I remember purposely doing "what ifs" because I didn't believe the sh* you were spewing.

Now this part is hazy: which teams were going to which regional. IIRC, you were in the ballpark, maybe 60-70% right, but that was more due to the what-if factor.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Brenthoven said:
Now this part is hazy: which teams were going to which regional. IIRC, you were in the ballpark, maybe 60-70% right, but that was more due to the what-if factor.
Click to expand...
The regional picks were posted on GPL IIRC and were dead-on.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Bakunin and dxmnkd,
Thanks for all the work with the PWR. I have one question about all this, and maybe it is for being lazy sake.
Anyway, I played around with the predictor on John Whelan's web site a little, and if I assumed that MSU-M loses 4 in a row, I got the Gophers up to # 12 before the Final 5. reason being that MSU falls off the TUC cliff and 2 TUC losses disappear for the Gophers. In all your figuring, have you come to the same conclusion?
I know it's a long shot, but it sure would be nice...
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Numbers said:
Bakunin and dxmnkd,
Thanks for all the work with the PWR. I have one question about all this, and maybe it is for being lazy sake.
Anyway, I played around with the predictor on John Whelan's web site a little, and if I assumed that MSU-M loses 4 in a row, I got the Gophers up to # 12 before the Final 5. reason being that MSU falls off the TUC cliff and 2 TUC losses disappear for the Gophers. In all your figuring, have you come to the same conclusion?
I know it's a long shot, but it sure would be nice...
Click to expand...

Jim Dahl from ss.com has a nice PWR calculator graph up for some WCHA teams (for results this upcoming weekend only):

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2011/03/03/1284/
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Numbers said:
Bakunin and dxmnkd,
Thanks for all the work with the PWR. I have one question about all this, and maybe it is for being lazy sake.
Anyway, I played around with the predictor on John Whelan's web site a little, and if I assumed that MSU-M loses 4 in a row, I got the Gophers up to # 12 before the Final 5. reason being that MSU falls off the TUC cliff and 2 TUC losses disappear for the Gophers. In all your figuring, have you come to the same conclusion?
I know it's a long shot, but it sure would be nice...
Click to expand...

Where is this site?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Only the comparison with Dartmouth would be impacted via a flipped TUC component; even then, MN still loses the overall comparison (although they could take it via the RPI component down the line). All dropping Mankato out of the TUC equation does is brings the records a little closer together. This is certainly helpful, but on its own, it doesn't accomplish anything for MN.

If UAA *and* MSU-M drop off the TUC cliff, the MN-UMD comparison gets a lot more interesting: UMD went 2-0 v UAA and 1-1 v MSU-M. MN went 0-2 v MSU-M and 1-1 v UAA. The TUC component: 9-7-3 v 8-10-3 (now). Eliminate UAA and MSU-M, and it becomes 6-6-3 v 7-7-3. UMD would then hold the comparison 3-1 instead of 4-1. At this stage, all MN would have to do is be +1 in the playoffs relative to whatever UMD does (assuming UMD splits at home v UNO). That would flip the TUC component to MN (instead of just being a dead heat) *and* it would flip the COP (UMD holds this 12-7-2 v 11-7-2; add a win and tie to UMD's portion of this after MN faces BSU this weekend). So even though MN can't catch them in RPI, they can still flip the comparison with some help.

Edit: seeing that Mankato hosts UAA for the regular season finale, I don't see how both of them drop out. If I had to guess, I'd say UAA will be riding the TUC bubble (if swept in the playoffs, they're out) while Mankato will stay in - albeit barely. Bemidji most likely won't be a TUC, either (see impact of that below).

TUC records of Bemidji's past opponents:
UND: 4-0
UMD: 1-0-1
DU: 2-0
SCSU: 3-1
UNO: 0-3-1 (they'd be *really* happy with MN sweeping BSU this weekend)
CC: 0-1-1
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

UAA will most likely stay in. Agreed. But just BARELY. MSU I'd say drops out. BSU drops out. .5029, .4953, and .4875 respectively.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

dxmnkd316 said:
UAA will most likely stay in. Agreed. But just BARELY. MSU I'd say drops out. BSU drops out. .5029, .4953, and .4875 respectively.
Click to expand...
MSU-M has the most wiggle room right now, but a lot depends on what happens this weekend between them and UAA (not to mention can either of them push their first round series to three games as that would help cement them as TUCs).
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

The site I mentioned - John Whelan's site, is found here:

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2011/rankings.diy.shtml

There is a script there in which a person enters the results of games. Then, change the indicator to "Use selected results" or whatever is close to that, and it calculates the PWR for you.

This is actually the same routine as a You Are the Committee that goes up after the playoffs start.

Here is what I put in:
Minnesota sweep BSU
UND sweep MTU
AA sweep Mankato
DU/SCSU split
CC/ Wisco split

I believe those results this week create no changes in standings, so the first round:

1) UND sweep 12) MTU
2) DU sweep 11) Mankato
3) UNO sweep 10) BSU
4) UMD (I entered) lose 2 of 3 to 9) UAA
5) Minnesota sweep 8) SCSU
6) CC win 2 of 3 vs 7) Wisco

And the result was that Minnesota moved all the way to # 12 in the PWR. Then I thought that perhaps I would try a more realistic result- and I changed UMD to winning 2 of 3 vs UAA, and the UMn/UMD comparison changed, and the Gophers fell to #13. Change it to UMD sweep and the result is the same.

There is a further possibility that helps the Gophers more: under this scenario, Michigan State stays a TUC. I don't know causes that, but if they lose their first round series, they would fall out as well, and take a Umn TUC loss with them.

Then, when I put in calculate, I got Minnesota 12th.

Obviously, YMMV. And, we will soon have a better idea how much of that is all possible.
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Grant Potulny was at the Grand Rapids - Duluth east game last night. wonder if he was evaluating Jake Bischoff, Sophmore D for GR and son of Grant. Very smart player.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Oh, and Bakunin,
I see what you mean about only Dartmouth being impacted by TUC records. The really odd thing is that if you go all the way up to New Hampshire, there is a chance that comparison could change via TUCs. Minnesota right now: 9-11-5. UNH 8-6-1
If UNH loses 2 to BC this weekend they go to 8-8-1. Now, take Mankato out of the equation and Mn is 9-9-5. So, it's dead even. Then, we are talking about Minny sweeping next week. Assume UNH does the same, although their opponent may not be TUC, and it is still dead even.
UMN : 11-9-5
BC: 10-8-1 (Or worse if they don't play a TUC)

Now, on the final weekend, if UMn wins Thurs, and loses Fri, their record would be 12-10-5. If UNH loses in the semi, their record would be 10-9-1. So, the comparison flips.

So, there are lots of good possibilities. But they all start with ,
JUST WIN.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Numbers said:
The site I mentioned - John Whelan's site, is found here:

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2011/rankings.diy.shtml

There is a script there in which a person enters the results of games. Then, change the indicator to "Use selected results" or whatever is close to that, and it calculates the PWR for you.

This is actually the same routine as a You Are the Committee that goes up after the playoffs start.

Here is what I put in:
Minnesota sweep BSU
UND sweep MTU
AA sweep Mankato
DU/SCSU split
CC/ Wisco split

I believe those results this week create no changes in standings, so the first round:

1) UND sweep 12) MTU
2) DU sweep 11) Mankato
3) UNO sweep 10) BSU
4) UMD (I entered) lose 2 of 3 to 9) UAA
5) Minnesota sweep 8) SCSU
6) CC win 2 of 3 vs 7) Wisco

And the result was that Minnesota moved all the way to # 12 in the PWR. Then I thought that perhaps I would try a more realistic result- and I changed UMD to winning 2 of 3 vs UAA, and the UMn/UMD comparison changed, and the Gophers fell to #13. Change it to UMD sweep and the result is the same.

There is a further possibility that helps the Gophers more: under this scenario, Michigan State stays a TUC. I don't know causes that, but if they lose their first round series, they would fall out as well, and take a Umn TUC loss with them.

Then, when I put in calculate, I got Minnesota 12th.

Obviously, YMMV. And, we will soon have a better idea how much of that is all possible.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's fine and dandy that the WCHA games and playoffs are in there. But you absolutely need to enter the other games across the league to even hit the side of the barn. There are dozens of other games as important (or more important) as the dozen or so games in the WCHA playoffs.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Numbers said:
The really odd thing is that if you go all the way up to New Hampshire, there is a chance that comparison could change via TUCs.
Click to expand...
That one is highly speculative and mimics what I said about UMD. Yes, the comparison is technically in play, but it is definitely a bit of a longshot as many things need to happen for it to flip.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: Kangas Kool-Aid For All!

Driftryder said:
How bad?
Click to expand...

Not so much a tie, but the tie combined with various other results across the league has bumped us out and dropped us to 18th. Win or go home at this point. At least through the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Without knowing the final results of the various future tournament games, we need help.
 
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