Latest pairwise rankings

[moose97]

Have you seen how they are becoming competitive in the CCHA in year two of being a D1 program? They are playing in a lucky to be average MN HS rink, and have significant support from the University. They have victories over Mankato and Tech. IMO they are well ahead of where I thought they would be. That is why I mentioned them.

And, how does that relate to competing against the NCHC, as is your bar for other schools? Literally everyone thought they would become competitive quickly as an alternative physically *IN* the Twin Cities rather than an hour or four away.

 

[model94]

Just saw a meme defining the best college football conference as the one with the most former players playing in the Superbowl. I bring it up here because it is patently silly to argue about the parameters that define "best". We can all come up with different parameters that are all reasonable. It doesn't make one better or worse - just different. What makes a conference "best" is an opinion - there is no right or wrong.

Yes. All but one of us are aligned on that. Speed is the only one making an assertion. The rest of us are calling BS.

 

[Numbers]

Concerning the actual PWR, and what it means for the tournament.....with 5 weeks left of games (inc Conf Tourneys), the following looks correct:
A- Minnesota is almost assured of a #1 band seed
B- Quinnipiac is not quite as well off, but considering the way they've played in conference this year, it is almost assured for them as well
C- Mich, Den, PSU, BU and St Cloud are going to go down to the very end to settle the last 2 #1s, and only Denver could possibly unseat Minnesota from the Fargo regional
D- WMU, OSU, Cornell, Harvard and MTU seem like safe bets to be in the tournament, excepting the parlay winning the conf tourneys
E- Minnesota State almost falls into the above category, unless they revert to their beginning of season form (which wasn't good)
F- Mich State, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Omaha, Alaska, Connecticut and RIT all have chances of getting at large bids, although RITs chance of at large bid is slim, and might require winning all the way until the AHA final before losing.
G- It can't be assured, but it is likely that anyone from 21 on down needs to win their conf tournament.

 

[StateofHockey78]

Concerning the actual PWR, and what it means for the tournament.....with 5 weeks left of games (inc Conf Tourneys), the following looks correct:
A- Minnesota is almost assured of a #1 band seed
B- Quinnipiac is not quite as well off, but considering the way they've played in conference this year, it is almost assured for them as well
C- Mich, Den, PSU, BU and St Cloud are going to go down to the very end to settle the last 2 #1s, and only Denver could possibly unseat Minnesota from the Fargo regional
D- WMU, OSU, Cornell, Harvard and MTU seem like safe bets to be in the tournament, excepting the parlay winning the conf tourneys
E- Minnesota State almost falls into the above category, unless they revert to their beginning of season form (which wasn't good)
F- Mich State, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Omaha, Alaska, Connecticut and RIT all have chances of getting at large bids, although RITs chance of at large bid is slim, and might require winning all the way until the AHA final before losing.
G- It can't be assured, but it is likely that anyone from 21 on down needs to win their conf tournament.

The first probability matrix came out today on CHN. Top 8 are basically 100% on getting in. I think you're pretty much right on with the general banding.

Separately from your info, IMO, RIT has no realistic chance of an At Large bid. Even if they run the table all the teams above them also have to basically lose out which is not going to happen. I see the cut line for at large "realistically" from Northeastern up.

 

[Numbers]

The first probability matrix came out today on CHN. Top 8 are basically 100% on getting in. I think you're pretty much right on with the general banding.

Separately from your info, IMO, RIT has no realistic chance of an At Large bid. Even if they run the table all the teams above them also have to basically lose out which is not going to happen. I see the cut line for at large "realistically" from Northeastern up.

For the sake of discussion, here are the RPIs of the teams near the cut line:
Mich State........5355
N'Eastern.........5360
Notre Dame......5352
Omaha.............5341
Alaska..............5292
Conn................5287
RIT...................5240

Mich State is currently 14th. Assuming 15th is the cut line (need a spot for AHA tournament champ), I would say that there is no advantage right now in being anyone from Mich State to Omaha. Those RPIs are so close that one result changes things.
Alaska and Connecticut will require better than average performance, but that's possible.
RIT....I'm not sure.

One must remember, for example, that Notre Dame is off this week, and then plays Michigan on the road. Even splitting those games will elevate their RPI by a good portion, because of the QWB.

 

[StateofHockey78]

For the sake of discussion, here are the RPIs of the teams near the cut line:
Mich State........5355
N'Eastern.........5360
Notre Dame......5352
Omaha.............5341
Alaska..............5292
Conn................5287
RIT...................5240

Mich State is currently 14th. Assuming 15th is the cut line (need a spot for AHA tournament champ), I would say that there is no advantage right now in being anyone from Mich State to Omaha. Those RPIs are so close that one result changes things.
Alaska and Connecticut will require better than average performance, but that's possible.
RIT....I'm not sure.

One must remember, for example, that Notre Dame is off this week, and then plays Michigan on the road. Even splitting those games will elevate their RPI by a good portion, because of the QWB.

Very true about the RPI, but that is only 1/3 of the pairwise component. This is why looking at the CHN matrix shows RIT for example with a 0.4% chance of an at large. The percentages of at large go down significantly after Northeastern. I think Alaska and Uconn were 7% each. Possible yes, however highly improbable.

 

[Numbers]

Latest Pairwise thoughts:
As of tonight, we know that Michigan State has allowed themselves into a difficult spot. Their regular season is over. Their record is exactly .500. They are currently something like 17th in the PWR. To be eligible to qualify, they have to win their first round B10 Tournament game. Very likely, however, they actually will have to win 2 rounds in order for their RPI to leave them with a chance.

Also, Notre Dame is in a similar spot, although they have one week left to play. Currently, their record is also .500, and their PWR is 16th. They play Michigan in the last week of the B10 season. Theoretically, a split would raise their RPI and help their ranking, but they would then need to win again in the B10 tournament. A sweep likely puts them in the NCAAs (barring major upsets in the conf tourneys). Being swept would leave them only winning the tournament as a way to qualify.

I would guess at this time that we will see only 4 B10 teams in the NCAA tournament. I simply can't see Mich State winning a must-win game like that on the road. And, I think that the odds are against Notre Dame as well.

Meanwhile, Minn and Quinn are virtually guaranteed the overall #1 and #2 spots.
Denver, Michigan, St Cloud, Western Mich, Penn State, Ohio State and even BU (currently 9th) still have chances at the last 2 #1 seeds.

 

[moose97]

The current top 20 includes 6 Big Ten teams and only 2 from the NCHC. That is a fact, not my opinion.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/pairwise/

Is anybody out there stubborn enough to insist that the NCHC is STILL the best conference?

Heh. Now each conference has 4 teams in tournament position. Pretty sure someone mentioned it was too early to gloat. Dumbass.

 

[StateofHockey78]

Latest Pairwise thoughts:
As of tonight, we know that Michigan State has allowed themselves into a difficult spot. Their regular season is over. Their record is exactly .500. They are currently something like 17th in the PWR. To be eligible to qualify, they have to win their first round B10 Tournament game. Very likely, however, they actually will have to win 2 rounds in order for their RPI to leave them with a chance.

Also, Notre Dame is in a similar spot, although they have one week left to play. Currently, their record is also .500, and their PWR is 16th. They play Michigan in the last week of the B10 season. Theoretically, a split would raise their RPI and help their ranking, but they would then need to win again in the B10 tournament. A sweep likely puts them in the NCAAs (barring major upsets in the conf tourneys). Being swept would leave them only winning the tournament as a way to qualify.

I would guess at this time that we will see only 4 B10 teams in the NCAA tournament. I simply can't see Mich State winning a must-win game like that on the road. And, I think that the odds are against Notre Dame as well.

Meanwhile, Minn and Quinn are virtually guaranteed the overall #1 and #2 spots.
Denver, Michigan, St Cloud, Western Mich, Penn State, Ohio State and even BU (currently 9th) still have chances at the last 2 #1 seeds.

I tend to agree only 4 teams are getting in. ND & MSU are competitive teams, but it's hard to see either of them making a big run in the B1G tourney. I'd give ND a slight advantage between the two because they have opportunity against Michigan to steal one and they are well coached.

MN can afford a split against OSU and maintain #1, but they would then probably need to win the conference tourney if QU wins out in theirs. QU has a very good chance to pass them if MN loses 2 more games prior to the selection and QU runs the table, which given the ECAC is quite possible. Michigan's weekend and DU's loss to UMD really opened the door for the other teams in the top 9. Based on scheduling and performance IMO the last two #1 seeds will be decided by - Mich, Denver, WMU, and SCSU.

It's starting to feel like there's going to be an upset in HEA tourney, I'd want to be at least 13 if I was a bubble team.

 

[Speed Kills]

Heh. Now each conference has 4 teams in tournament position. Pretty sure someone mentioned it was too early to gloat. Dumbass.

4 of the top 8 in Pairwise is better than 4 of the top 13. Plus there's that 9-6-0 head-to-head record. Now wipe that egg off your face, it makes you look foolish.

 

[moose97]

4 of the top 8 in Pairwise is better than 4 of the top 13. Plus there's that 9-6-0 head-to-head record. Now wipe that egg off your face, it makes you look foolish.

Lol. Have you decided which metrics you want to use or are you still being a hypocrite?

 

[John J. MacInnes]

Latest Pairwise thoughts:
As of tonight, we know that Michigan State has allowed themselves into a difficult spot. Their regular season is over. Their record is exactly .500. They are currently something like 17th in the PWR. To be eligible to qualify, they have to win their first round B10 Tournament game. Very likely, however, they actually will have to win 2 rounds in order for their RPI to leave them with a chance.

I simply can't see Mich State winning a must-win game like that on the road.

I hate to burst your bubble on this, but the Big Ten tournament starts with a best-of-3 quarterfinal. The single game format doesn't start until the second weekend.

That means if they advance from that first round series, they are guaranteed to be at least at .500 regardless of whether they do it in 2 or 3 games.

 

[StateofHockey78]

I hate to burst your bubble on this, but the Big Ten tournament starts with a best-of-3 quarterfinal. The single game format doesn't start until the second weekend.

That means if they advance from that first round series, they are guaranteed to be at least at .500 regardless of whether they do it in 2 or 3 games.

You are correct sir, but I don't think they will qualify at large with a 2-2 or even 3-2 record at this point. They need a better result to jump potentially 3-4 other teams or more. I have no facts to back it up, but having looked at so many numbers of late, I think 3-1 at minimum would be required for them to jump back into a "safe" position. Losing to Wisco really hurts the common opponents comparison. Current CHN simulations through conference tourney's show MSU has about a 30% chance to make the tourney, which includes a 4% auto bid chance, so 26% at-large. I'm thinking at 30% that means they need a strong run to get in now.

 

[Numbers]

I hate to burst your bubble on this, but the Big Ten tournament starts with a best-of-3 quarterfinal. The single game format doesn't start until the second weekend.

That means if they advance from that first round series, they are guaranteed to be at least at .500 regardless of whether they do it in 2 or 3 games.

I'm sorry for the mistake, but the same principle holds. They have to win the series to be eligible for the NCAAs. I don't think they will. If I am wrong, and they sweep, then their chances increase quite a bit.

Same applies for Notre Dame. If they don't sweep Michigan this weekend, they have to win their first round series.

 

[Numbers]

You are correct sir, but I don't think they will qualify at large with a 2-2 or even 3-2 record at this point. They need a better result to jump potentially 3-4 other teams or more. I have no facts to back it up, but having looked at so many numbers of late, I think 3-1 at minimum would be required for them to jump back into a "safe" position. Losing to Wisco really hurts the common opponents comparison. Current CHN simulations through conference tourney's show MSU has about a 30% chance to make the tourney, which includes a 4% auto bid chance, so 26% at-large. I'm thinking at 30% that means they need a strong run to get in now.

Whether or not losing to Wisco hurts ComOpp, it is true that presently, every Mich State comparison is being decided by the RPI.

 

[StateofHockey78]

Whether or not losing to Wisco hurts ComOpp, it is true that presently, every Mich State comparison is being decided by the RPI.

It sort of goes without saying that losing to Wisco also hurts the RPI. My point on common opp was they now will have a hard time flipping ND if they end up close. it's currently 3-1-1 in common opp and could have been 3-2-1. If Michigan sweeps ND it could have been 2-2-2 going into the tourney.

 

[Stauber1]

It sort of goes without saying that losing to Wisco also hurts the RPI. My point on common opp was they now will have a hard time flipping ND if they end up close. it's currently 3-1-1 in common opp and could have been 3-2-1. If Michigan sweeps ND it could have been 2-2-2 going into the tourney.

It is rare a team's PWR position doesn't match their RPI position, and exceedingly rare for a mismatch to be the result of the common opponents component. If a team is behind in the PWR to a team they beat in RPI (which only occurs once or twice each season across all teams) it is almost always due to winning/losing H2H comparisons.

 

[John J. MacInnes]

So as far as Michigan State goes, here's what they have working in their favor.

Their likely opponent in the first round is Penn State. MSU holds the tiebreaker with a 2-1-1 record in the series between the two, so PSU would have to take 4 points vs Wisconsin in the final weekend to move above MSU. The Spartans have already won a game at State College this season, so if they do end up on the road they have seen some success in that building. Thanks to PSU's performance this season, there are lots of quality win bonus points available for wins against them. UAF has no opportunity to get any bonus and will likely have the Lindenwood results thrown out because they would negatively affect their RPI, they would seem to be a non-factor. Cornell now has a similar problem with no QWB available until deep in the ECAC tournament. MSU needs Notre Dame to fall flat this weekend in Ann Arbor and suddenly things don't look as daunting. Then it would come down to Northeastern who holds a decent lead in the RPI at .0043.

While I agree that MSU put itself in an unfavorable position, it's by no means fatal yet.

 

[Numbers]

It sort of goes without saying that losing to Wisco also hurts the RPI. My point on common opp was they now will have a hard time flipping ND if they end up close. it's currently 3-1-1 in common opp and could have been 3-2-1. If Michigan sweeps ND it could have been 2-2-2 going into the tourney.

I must be missing something. Michigan State has a 2-1-1 record against Notre Dame. That alone is going to flip the comparison if their RPI is higher. Again, it seems to me that the Common Opponents component is a very small one, and that, for the vast majority of cases, RPI is what is going to decide the final PWR.

As to MSU in general, I agree with all of the comments, and my appraisal that they are in a tight spot was intended to say "They have to win their first round." And, I think it's also true to say that if they only win 2 games to 1, they will also need to win the B10 semifinal, because I don't think a 2-2 record in the next few games is enough.

However, the same can also be said for several teams.

Notre Dame is in a better spot, at least as far as controlling their own destiny, in that they have a weekend against Michigan left. However, if Michigan sweeps them, then they will almost certainly need to win the B10 tourney.

Lots of hockey left to play, and the details of the scenarios are starting to come into focus.

 

[StateofHockey78]

I must be missing something. Michigan State has a 2-1-1 record against Notre Dame. That alone is going to flip the comparison if their RPI is higher. Again, it seems to me that the Common Opponents component is a very small one, and that, for the vast majority of cases, RPI is what is going to decide the final PWR.

As to MSU in general, I agree with all of the comments, and my appraisal that they are in a tight spot was intended to say "They have to win their first round." And, I think it's also true to say that if they only win 2 games to 1, they will also need to win the B10 semifinal, because I don't think a 2-2 record in the next few games is enough.

However, the same can also be said for several teams.

Notre Dame is in a better spot, at least as far as controlling their own destiny, in that they have a weekend against Michigan left. However, if Michigan sweeps them, then they will almost certainly need to win the B10 tourney.

Lots of hockey left to play, and the details of the scenarios are starting to come into focus.

We're all making valid points and you're not wrong about the RPI. I'll try one more time to explain the COP view. If ND ends up with a higher RPI, MSU cannot flip this matchup now since any tie in comparison points goes to the higher RPI. However, because MSU has a 2-1 h2h, had they been able to get some key playoff wins and potentially flip the COP to earn that point, they wouldn't have needed the RPI to flip the result (In this scenario MSU would hold a 3-2 edge in total pts). Now, their only hope is to outplay ND from here to the end and hope they get help from Michigan.

This is why the CHN projections show ND now has a much higher at large % than MSU now. Prior to the Wisco loss, MSU had a greater at large % than ND..now ND shows a 46% chance of at large and MSU shows 26%. We're all right about one thing, MSU as a tough road to get there at this point. In the end it's just an opportunity lost if those two teams end up in a last spot scenario.

Does anyone else also think we're going to see some auto bids steal a spot from the HEA this year? I could even see a team like BSU(Bemidji) sneaking in, just look at how they played Minn St. this weekend. It sure seems like you better be at least 13 to feel safe.