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Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
- Thread starter Jon
- Start date
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Papelbon has 5 blown saves in 34 save opportunities this season.
Bard has 4 blown saves in 7 save opportunities this season.
The middle of a pennant race is not the time to switch closers, especially when one is still doing his job aside from the occasional blow-up (even Mariano Rivera has 2 blown saves this season). You don't take a guy who is still 3rd in the AL in saves and essentially demote him in mid-August for a guy who hasn't yet proven that he can handle the 9th inning.
Papelbon has 5 blown saves in 34 save opportunities this season.
Bard has 4 blown saves in 7 save opportunities this season.
The middle of a pennant race is not the time to switch closers, especially when one is still doing his job aside from the occasional blow-up (even Mariano Rivera has 2 blown saves this season). You don't take a guy who is still 3rd in the AL in saves and essentially demote him in mid-August for a guy who hasn't yet proven that he can handle the 9th inning.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Papelbon has saved 78% of his save opportunities, making him last out of all closers with at least 20 saves. He gives up too many homeruns, and when you are closer in the 9th, thats pretty much the last thing you want to do. When you have the reputation of throwing hard, and first pitch strikes...players are going to jump all over it, ala Caberra a few weeks ago for Detroit, and Toronto last night. He has now tied a career high in losses (5) and Blown Saves (6).
"Opponents are hitting .418 against Papelbon on at-bats ending in the first two pitches. That's far above the league average of .332, according to Inside Edge. But after two pitches, opponents are hitting just .118 against the Boston closer, well below the .229 league average."
Bard has a 0.86 WHIP, 54 Ks in 52 innings and a 9.3 SO/9 to go along with an AL Best 25 holds. It is easier for a bullpen arm to rack up a Blown Save more than the traditional closer. Okijima has 4 blown saves. And of Bard's four blown saves, two of them came on the second series of the season at Kansas City, his last Blown Save came June 10th at Cleveland.
Papelbon has saved 78% of his save opportunities, making him last out of all closers with at least 20 saves. He gives up too many homeruns, and when you are closer in the 9th, thats pretty much the last thing you want to do. When you have the reputation of throwing hard, and first pitch strikes...players are going to jump all over it, ala Caberra a few weeks ago for Detroit, and Toronto last night. He has now tied a career high in losses (5) and Blown Saves (6).
"Opponents are hitting .418 against Papelbon on at-bats ending in the first two pitches. That's far above the league average of .332, according to Inside Edge. But after two pitches, opponents are hitting just .118 against the Boston closer, well below the .229 league average."
Bard has a 0.86 WHIP, 54 Ks in 52 innings and a 9.3 SO/9 to go along with an AL Best 25 holds. It is easier for a bullpen arm to rack up a Blown Save more than the traditional closer. Okijima has 4 blown saves. And of Bard's four blown saves, two of them came on the second series of the season at Kansas City, his last Blown Save came June 10th at Cleveland.
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Terrierbyassociation
Fight Cancer, Wherever You Find It
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
God the save stat is so stupid. Whoever invented it changed more with baseball than any other stat.
God the save stat is so stupid. Whoever invented it changed more with baseball than any other stat.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Still think Bard is ready to take over?
Still think Bard is ready to take over?
Gibber
Little Boxes
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Bard's fine if JD Drew doesn't crap the bed that inning, 2x
Still think Bard is ready to take over?
Bard's fine if JD Drew doesn't crap the bed that inning, 2x
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
So, regardless on what you think about personal, and roster moves this 9 game homestand is the season for the Sox. Home games against the Angels, Blue Jays and Seattle. All below average teams that the Sox need to beat at home. Anything less than 7-2 Im going to be disappointed.
So, regardless on what you think about personal, and roster moves this 9 game homestand is the season for the Sox. Home games against the Angels, Blue Jays and Seattle. All below average teams that the Sox need to beat at home. Anything less than 7-2 Im going to be disappointed.
thecomicbookguy
Nobody.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
rrrrrrrrrrrrrrun prevention!
rrrrrrrrrrrrrrun prevention!
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
The Red Sox are a good team in an excellent division. Simple as that. It's been fun to watch them hang in there through all the adversity (raise your hand if you thought you'd see production like this from Beltre or Hall).
They still had enough to make it a fun season, with injuries that would put a lot of other teams in the basement. It Just wasn'nt quite enough.
The Red Sox are a good team in an excellent division. Simple as that. It's been fun to watch them hang in there through all the adversity (raise your hand if you thought you'd see production like this from Beltre or Hall).
They still had enough to make it a fun season, with injuries that would put a lot of other teams in the basement. It Just wasn'nt quite enough.
Jon
Say, this is nice.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
No one would have predicted Okajima to be this craptastic.
Bullpens are like the weather: they change from season to season.
I'm much more upset with Theo signing 37 year old center fielders, declining AL West pitchers and Ellsbury's hilarious 16 year stints on the DL.
No one would have predicted Okajima to be this craptastic.
Bullpens are like the weather: they change from season to season.
I'm much more upset with Theo signing 37 year old center fielders, declining AL West pitchers and Ellsbury's hilarious 16 year stints on the DL.
SteveF
* * * * *
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
bullpen's are unpredictable and largely unsustainable (look at LAA this season); they are also fairly easily replaceable. so i actually agree with one of theo's main tenets of not investing in your bullpen (which means bye bye papelbon). because when you invest large dollars in the bullpen you end up with guys like farnsworth.
the question to be asked is why hasnt he done anything to fix the problem as the year has unfolded. you could reasonably argue that the price for replacements like scott downs, etc were too high. you could also argue that he reasonably thought internal replacements like bowden and dubront would compensate. but it hasnt worked, so someone must acknowledge responsibility for that failure. not only that, he sent ramon rameriz out of town for prospects; while he wasnt great - what was that about in the middle of a playoff chase (white flag?)
digression: obviously injuries have decimated the team, almost to the point of absurdity. but injuries to hitters didnt give up 16 runs to toronto yesterday. for a team based on pitching and defense, the offense has been the only constant (Despite the injuries)
but when you consider his full body of work, you really must ask what is theo's ultimate motivation year to year, as in, did he give up on this year? (the word bridge season was thrown around a lot). seems to me like theo and crew operate the team as a pure business - 1) obsessed with sell outs and off field promotions thus maximizing revenues and 2) lowering costs by cutting payroll/relying on prospects and winning just enough games each year to keep butts in the seats. sometimes it seems that theo's free agent signings or trades are predicated on what type of compensation he will get when he ultimately lets them walk (lackey being a notable exception).
digression #2: theo has had some BAD free agent moves. his cup of tea is obviously the farm system and player development (though even that is overrated when you consider the huge advantage wealthy teams have in scouting and signing amateur players). the undisputed biggest move the team made was swapping hanley/sanchez for beckett/lowell and that was done when theo had quit for the summer. while hanley had a lot o maturity problems (showed up again this year) that made people question his longevity in boston - theo was unwilling to part with him to improve the big club.
every year in the preseason i read something from theo that says how many wins he thinks his team will need to make the playoffs. its so odd to hear that (i never hear anything like that from NY) and it seems he wants his teams just good enough to make the wildcard... and hordes his prospects to make a really big playoff push every few years.
as a college sports fan, i think most people would accept that kind of success ratio. but it doesnt seem like it would fly year to year in the major leagues (especially in a passionate city like boston). especially when it includes missing the playoffs alltogether from time to time. not to mention, with tampa bay joining the arms race - that wildcard is no longer a certainty for boston. it will be interesting to see if theo changes his approach.
i dont mean to be all negative. his system has a lot of upside too. i mean the yankees basically started copying bits and pieces from his strategy in 2005 or so, and it has done great things for our system since then! so imitation is flattery. no doubt it has made it a little harder for theo to work his magic at the same time. boston is always dangerous, no doubt, and that would make me probably even more mad that the front office has rarely gone that seemingly small extra effort to push them over the top.
bullpen's are unpredictable and largely unsustainable (look at LAA this season); they are also fairly easily replaceable. so i actually agree with one of theo's main tenets of not investing in your bullpen (which means bye bye papelbon). because when you invest large dollars in the bullpen you end up with guys like farnsworth.
the question to be asked is why hasnt he done anything to fix the problem as the year has unfolded. you could reasonably argue that the price for replacements like scott downs, etc were too high. you could also argue that he reasonably thought internal replacements like bowden and dubront would compensate. but it hasnt worked, so someone must acknowledge responsibility for that failure. not only that, he sent ramon rameriz out of town for prospects; while he wasnt great - what was that about in the middle of a playoff chase (white flag?)
digression: obviously injuries have decimated the team, almost to the point of absurdity. but injuries to hitters didnt give up 16 runs to toronto yesterday. for a team based on pitching and defense, the offense has been the only constant (Despite the injuries)
but when you consider his full body of work, you really must ask what is theo's ultimate motivation year to year, as in, did he give up on this year? (the word bridge season was thrown around a lot). seems to me like theo and crew operate the team as a pure business - 1) obsessed with sell outs and off field promotions thus maximizing revenues and 2) lowering costs by cutting payroll/relying on prospects and winning just enough games each year to keep butts in the seats. sometimes it seems that theo's free agent signings or trades are predicated on what type of compensation he will get when he ultimately lets them walk (lackey being a notable exception).
digression #2: theo has had some BAD free agent moves. his cup of tea is obviously the farm system and player development (though even that is overrated when you consider the huge advantage wealthy teams have in scouting and signing amateur players). the undisputed biggest move the team made was swapping hanley/sanchez for beckett/lowell and that was done when theo had quit for the summer. while hanley had a lot o maturity problems (showed up again this year) that made people question his longevity in boston - theo was unwilling to part with him to improve the big club.
every year in the preseason i read something from theo that says how many wins he thinks his team will need to make the playoffs. its so odd to hear that (i never hear anything like that from NY) and it seems he wants his teams just good enough to make the wildcard... and hordes his prospects to make a really big playoff push every few years.
as a college sports fan, i think most people would accept that kind of success ratio. but it doesnt seem like it would fly year to year in the major leagues (especially in a passionate city like boston). especially when it includes missing the playoffs alltogether from time to time. not to mention, with tampa bay joining the arms race - that wildcard is no longer a certainty for boston. it will be interesting to see if theo changes his approach.
i dont mean to be all negative. his system has a lot of upside too. i mean the yankees basically started copying bits and pieces from his strategy in 2005 or so, and it has done great things for our system since then! so imitation is flattery. no doubt it has made it a little harder for theo to work his magic at the same time. boston is always dangerous, no doubt, and that would make me probably even more mad that the front office has rarely gone that seemingly small extra effort to push them over the top.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
The problem with trading for a bullpen this year was a few things. The price was really high due to a lot of teams in the mix for bullpen help. During the trade deadline, the Red Sox werent any closer than they are now to the Wildcard I believe, and trading some good young players for a rental pen guy wouldnt have been a smart choice. The amount of players on the pitching side being on the DL, I think they have done a fine job. Add in the sudden drop off of Okijima, and Delcarmen pitching his way out of Boston.
I dont have much of a problem with Theo's signings. They are hit or miss, but its like that for other MLB teams as much as Boston. For every Mike Cameron on Boston you have a Randy Wolfe for Milwaukee, for example.
P.S. Bill "God" Bellicheck signed Adalius Thomas, and that didnt work out...nobody got all up in arms over that. Both GMs have won multiple titles. Stop the double standard
The problem with trading for a bullpen this year was a few things. The price was really high due to a lot of teams in the mix for bullpen help. During the trade deadline, the Red Sox werent any closer than they are now to the Wildcard I believe, and trading some good young players for a rental pen guy wouldnt have been a smart choice. The amount of players on the pitching side being on the DL, I think they have done a fine job. Add in the sudden drop off of Okijima, and Delcarmen pitching his way out of Boston.
I dont have much of a problem with Theo's signings. They are hit or miss, but its like that for other MLB teams as much as Boston. For every Mike Cameron on Boston you have a Randy Wolfe for Milwaukee, for example.
P.S. Bill "God" Bellicheck signed Adalius Thomas, and that didnt work out...nobody got all up in arms over that. Both GMs have won multiple titles. Stop the double standard
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Bill Hall, with HR #17!
Y'know, as much as I've already given a eulogy for this team, it's not over. Sure, they'll have to absolutely murder someone (probably TB) head to head to make up the ground . . . but it's still early to give up.
/optimist
Bill Hall, with HR #17!
Y'know, as much as I've already given a eulogy for this team, it's not over. Sure, they'll have to absolutely murder someone (probably TB) head to head to make up the ground . . . but it's still early to give up.
/optimist
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
As I was saying to someone else today, it's not always the trades you make, sometimes, it's the ones you don't make.
How many people were upset 2 offseasons ago when Theo refused to trade Lester, Buchholz and Ellsbury for Johan Santana?
How many people thought Theo should have traded Buchholz for anything last year to help the offense?
Better yet, how many people wanted Theo to give Ortiz his outright release at the end of April this season?
We can criticize the bad moves all day, but let's give him some credit for the moves he didn't make.
As I was saying to someone else today, it's not always the trades you make, sometimes, it's the ones you don't make.
How many people were upset 2 offseasons ago when Theo refused to trade Lester, Buchholz and Ellsbury for Johan Santana?
How many people thought Theo should have traded Buchholz for anything last year to help the offense?
Better yet, how many people wanted Theo to give Ortiz his outright release at the end of April this season?
We can criticize the bad moves all day, but let's give him some credit for the moves he didn't make.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
definitely should have traded lester, mdc, and hansen for oswalt!!
definitely should have traded lester, mdc, and hansen for oswalt!!
Re: Fun Prevention: Red Sox 2010 season thread part 1
Agreed. Couldnt have said it any better.
Agreed. Couldnt have said it any better.