ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Suggesting a new assignment for our statistics mavens (I really enjoy your conversations and controversies about fun with hockey statistics): first, can you calculate how closely the current goalie stats above correlate to the current ECAC stats? Eyeballing it, it seems very close. Then can you adjust Maschmeyer's stats as outlined above to reflect her cupcake-free diet. Then can you adjust everybody's stats to reflect precisely which teams they've played so far (like sabremetricians adjusting baseball players' stats for the parks that they play in). And then break out stats for ECAC and non-ECAC opponents since the ECAC pool has a larger sample size and is less heterogeneous in opponents and opponents' opponents than the non-ECAC pool. And finally, for extra credit, you can try to address the chicken-and-egg question to what extent does strong goalie performance make team defense statistically better and to what extent does strong skater performance make goalie stats statistically better?

(This post may reflect the tendency of humanities concentrators to assume we can set the parameters for other people's discussions about topics that they are expert in and we know nothing about, but maybe it will be fun to think about).

This is giving me a popsicle headache.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Eyeballing the strength of the respective opponents left for each of the top six ECAC teams, my offhand thought is that Cornell has a slightly easier schedule than QU and that QU has a slightly easier schedule than the other four.

Accordingly, my offhand predictions are:

34 QU and H, with H holding the H2H tiebreaker

33 Cl and Co, with Co holding the H2H tiebreaker

30 StL

28 Pr

What do others predict?

 

[ARM]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Accordingly, my offhand predictions are:

34 QU and H, with H holding the H2H tiebreaker

Although I'm sure the Bobcats would love to host the ECAC finals, I would think that they would take a shared conference title and their first banner in a heartbeat.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Uhoh, Harvard's third goalie lowered her GA to 1.29 today against Brown, so she must be a lot better than Maschmeyer, who's at 1.73 (mostly against top ten teams), eh? Wonder why they don't start her against BC? (LOL)

 

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Uhoh, Harvard's third goalie lowered her GA to 1.29 today against Brown, so she must be a lot better than Maschmeyer, who's at 1.73 (mostly against top ten teams), eh? Wonder why they don't start her against BC? (LOL)

Yeah Molly had to wander around during breaks in the action just to keep warm. Seemed like the puck was always in the Brown zone. Actually, upon further review, it was in their zone pretty much the entire third period.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Eyeballing the strength of the respective opponents left for each of the top six ECAC teams, my offhand thought is that Cornell has a slightly easier schedule than QU and that QU has a slightly easier schedule than the other four.

Accordingly, my offhand predictions are:

34 QU and H, with H holding the H2H tiebreaker

33 Cl and Co, with Co holding the H2H tiebreaker

30 StL

28 Pr

What do others predict?

Any predictions...from anybody?

 

[vicb]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Friday
Union @ Brown
Princeton @ Clarkson
Dartmouth @ Colgate
Harvard @ Cornell TIE
Quinnipiac @ St. Lawrence
Rensselaer @ Yale

Sat
Rensselaer @ Brown
Quinnipiac @ Clarkson
Harvard @ Colgate
Dartmouth @ Cornell Tie
Princeton @ St. Lawrence
Union @ Yale

 

[vicb]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Eyeballing the strength of the respective opponents left for each of the top six ECAC teams, my offhand thought is that Cornell has a slightly easier schedule than QU and that QU has a slightly easier schedule than the other four.

Accordingly, my offhand predictions are:

34 QU and H, with H holding the H2H tiebreaker

33 Cl and Co, with Co holding the H2H tiebreaker

30 StL

28 Pr

What do others predict?

What the heck.

1) Harvard
2) CCT
3) Cornell
4) Quinny
5) SLU
6) Prinny

 

[Bhikukhu]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Friday
Union @ Brown
Princeton @ Clarkson
Dartmouth @ Colgate
Harvard @ Cornell
Quinnipiac @ St. Lawrence TIE
Rensselaer @ Yale

Sat
Rensselaer @ Brown
Quinnipiac @ Clarkson
Harvard @ Colgate
Dartmouth @ Cornell
Princeton @ St. Lawrence
Union @ Yale

 

[mattj711]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Friday
Union @ Brown
Princeton @ Clarkson
Dartmouth @ Colgate
Harvard @ Cornell
Quinnipiac @ St. Lawrence
Rensselaer @ Yale

Sat
Rensselaer @ Brown
Quinnipiac @ Clarkson - Tie
Harvard @ Colgate
Dartmouth @ Cornell
Princeton @ St. Lawrence
Union @ Yale

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

What an exciting final two weeks for the season! After the tight three-way horse races of the past couple years, we have an even broader field this time. Very few points separate the top six teams. The fact that all of the top teams will be playing the other top teams these two weekends makes it even tighter since the fourth, fifth and sixth teams in the current standings have already demonstrated that they can knock off top teams.
Wonder what two-way, three-way, four-way or even five-way ties are theoretically possible atop the league table? And do the tie-break rules break down in three-way, four-way and five-way situations (i.e. A wins the tie-break against B, B against C, but C wins the tie-break against A?) We'll see!

And are the final standings going to have much significance ECAC-bracketology-wise? When there were three top teams, the No.1 earned a large bracketology advantage since No.2 and No.3 were going to have to play each other in the semis while the No1 faced a darker horse. This year, it may make little difference. Even in terms of QF opponent......my favorite team at least won't be able to avoid a tough QF since each of the current No.5, No.6 and No.7 has already beaten them once this year and everybody knows how the current No.8 gave them the willies in last year's QF. So hold tight for an exciting four weekends in the Age of Parity!

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Closing in on absolute parity!.....The teams with the most points in the standings right now tend to have harder remaining schedules.

31 Hvd: Clark (30), StL (27), Colg
30 Clark: Hvd (31), Q (28), Dmth
28 Q: Clark (30), Yale, Br
27 StL: Hvd (31), Pr (23), Dmth
26 Cor: Dmth, RPI, U
23 Pr: StL (27), Yale, Br

If, for the sake of argument, you were to call each Top Six v Top Six match a toss up and each other game a certain two points, you would predict the following extremely tight results: 35 Hvd 34 Clark 33 Q and Stl 32 Cor 28 Pr

And if you jiggle individual results you would get a kaleidoscope of results, the most important being if Clark defeats Hvd, then: 35 Clark 34 Hvd 33 Q and Stl 32 Cor 28 Pr

I'll see how I can manipulate the individual predictions to come up with the maximum parity. More later!

 

[Trillium]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

**** iphone....the picks I thought I submitted yesterday never posted. Here's todays:

Sat
Rensselaer @ Brown
Quinnipiac @ Clarkson
Harvard @ Colgate
Dartmouth @ Cornell
Princeton @ St. Lawrence
Union @ Yale

 

[Trillium]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

What an exciting final two weeks for the season! After the tight three-way horse races of the past couple years, we have an even broader field this time. Very few points separate the top six teams. The fact that all of the top teams will be playing the other top teams these two weekends makes it even tighter since the fourth, fifth and sixth teams in the current standings have already demonstrated that they can knock off top teams.
Wonder what two-way, three-way, four-way or even five-way ties are theoretically possible atop the league table? And do the tie-break rules break down in three-way, four-way and five-way situations (i.e. A wins the tie-break against B, B against C, but C wins the tie-break against A?) We'll see!

And are the final standings going to have much significance ECAC-bracketology-wise? When there were three top teams, the No.1 earned a large bracketology advantage since No.2 and No.3 were going to have to play each other in the semis while the No1 faced a darker horse. This year, it may make little difference. Even in terms of QF opponent......my favorite team at least won't be able to avoid a tough QF since each of the current No.5, No.6 and No.7 has already beaten them once this year and everybody knows how the current No.8 gave them the willies in last year's QF. So hold tight for an exciting four weekends in the Age of Parity!

It was actually the current No. 7 that Harvard played in QF last season.
The game today Quinny vs Clarkson should be huge in terms of deciding #2.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Here's a scenario that results in extreme parity, at least at the very top of the league table:
(assuming my arithmetic's correct)

If:
Hvd and StL tie,
Clark defeats Hvd,
Q defeats Clark,
StL defeats Pr, and
all Top Six teams defeat all non-Top Six teams, then the point standings will be:

34 Clark, H and Q
32 Cor and StL
27 Pr

with a Paper/Rock/Scissors result in H2H, which IIRC is the first tiebreak criterion (Clark/Hvd and Hvd/Q but Q/Clark)

Does anyone recall what the next tiebreak criterion is?

 

[vicb]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Here's a scenario that results in extreme parity, at least at the very top of the league table:
(assuming my arithmetic's correct)

If:
Hvd and StL tie,
Clark defeats Hvd,
Q defeats Clark,
StL defeats Pr, and
all Top Six teams defeat all non-Top Six teams, then the point standings will be:

34 Clark, H and Q
32 Cor and StL
27 Pr

with a Paper/Rock/Scissors result in H2H, which IIRC is the first tiebreak criterion (Clark/Hvd and Hvd/Q but Q/Clark)

Does anyone recall what the next tiebreak criterion is?

If you want max parity

Harv 32 Ties Clarkson, Loses to SLU and Colgate
Clarkson 32 Ties Harv and Dart, loses to Quinny
Quinny 32 Beats Clarkson and Brown, loses to Yale
SLU 32 Beats Harv and Dart, ties Prinny
Prinny 28 Beats Yale and Brown, Ties SLU

Tie-Breaking Procedures for Championship Seeding (My guess is it is the same for the women)

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Following are the ECAC Men's Hockey Championship policies pertaining to seeding and tie-breaking procedures.

Seeding for championship competition is based on total points accumulated during league contests. In the event teams are tied in the final regular-season standings, the following tiebreakers (listed in order of application) shall be used to determine seeding. (Note: Only League games apply):

Comparison of game results between tied teams (head to head).
Wins.
Comparison of results of games against the top four teams.
Comparison of results of games against the top eight teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition.
Goal differential in games against the top four teams.
Goal differential in games against the top eight teams.
In the case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria will be used in order until a team, or teams, is separated from the pack. At that point, the process will begin anew to break the "new" tie. In other words, when a four-way tie becomes a three-way tie, the three-way tie is treated as a "new" tie and the process begins with the first criterion.

 

[vicb]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

If you want max parity

Harv 32 Ties Clarkson, Loses to SLU and Colgate
SLU 32 Beats Harv and Dart, ties Prinny

Harvard loses to Colgate Hee Heee Heee that is not happening
SLU loses to Prinny

so my max parity is out.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Now it comes down to Clarkson, Quinny and Harvard (with StL and Dmth as possible kingmakers).

Harvard gets the No.1 seed if it defeats or ties Clarkson, or if it loses to Clarkson but defeats StL. Clarkson gets the No.1 seed if it defeats Harvard and Dartmouth, and StL defeats or ties Hvd. Quinny gets the No.1 seed if Clarkson and StL defeat Hvd and Dmth defeats or ties Clarkson.

And then.....the tourney arrives and we get to do it all over again, with at least six, possibly eight, plausible contenders....! Parity!

 

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Now it comes down to Clarkson, Quinny and Harvard (with StL and Dmth as possible kingmakers).

Harvard gets the No.1 seed if it defeats or ties Clarkson, or if it loses to Clarkson but defeats StL. Clarkson gets the No.1 seed if it defeats Harvard and Dartmouth, and StL defeats or ties Hvd. Quinny gets the No.1 seed if Clarkson and StL defeat Hvd and Dmth defeats or ties Clarkson.

And then.....the tourney arrives and we get to do it all over again, with at least six, possibly eight, plausible contenders....! Parity!

I think one of the more interesting aspects of the race to the wire is who finishes fourth. Princeton is making a strong bid with wins over Cornell and SLU in the past couple of weeks. They are no pushovers as Harvard found out last month. SLU appears to be in real danger as they are on the road at Harvard and Dartmouth this weekend. Cornell has it relatively easy with RPI and Union. With a trip to Brown and Yale, the Tigers have a chance to leapfrog and get home ice. They need help but it could happen.

 

[Trillium]

Re: ECAC D1 Women's Hockey 2014-15 Season

Last week's results:

vicb 6/12
bhikukhu 7/12
mattj711 6/12
trillium 4/6

Prior week:

mattj711 2/3
trillium 1/3

YTD total as of Feb 15:

trillium 86/130 66.2%
mattj711 85/135 63.0%
vicb 91/145 62.8%
bhibukhu 82/136 60.3%