So I think even though Clarkson has grabbed the #1 seed, Harvard is the only team in the top 4 that Clarkson has beaten this year and they were IMHO lucky to tie Harvard earlier in the season at Cheel. I do not think of Clarkson as the favorite coming into this post season. I think just like last year they can get by Dartmouth in the quarterfinals. Assuming all 4 top seed make it thru (which is dicey this year), having to beat Cornell then Quinny or Harvard to me is gonna be a tall order even on home ice.
The ECAC playoff picture is definitely interesting. I'd argue it's actually extremely likely that not all top 4 seeds make it beyond this weekend. As has been noted previously, the top 5 teams were all within only 4 points over the course of the entire season.
However, if you look at the final 10 games of conference play, the differences between the 8 playoff bound teams were even less evident, and how teams are playing late in the season is far more relevant to their prospects than their performance in October and November. The relative rankings/differences between playoff bound teams in that span were even more blurry. Over the final 10 games, a different 5 ECAC teams (including Princeton and Yale instead of Quinny and Cornell) were within 2 points of each other at the top, and 7 of the 8 teams were actually within 4 points of each other.
It would not surprise me at all to see every QF series go to 3 games. I'd say the Clarkson Dartmouth series is most likely of the 4 post-season match ups to be decided in favour of the top seed. Quinny's offence seems to have deserted them lately; they are probably the most likely of the top seeds to be eliminated. If so, will 2 losses to an unranked team possibly jeopardize their ability to still make the NCAA tournament, or is their ranking going to be high enough already to keep them safe??
It should go without saying that once you get past the QF round, anything can happen in a single game elimination. I don't think it would be at all far-fetched this year for an ECAC team outside of the national top 6 to earn the ECAC auto-bid and displace unlucky #7.
Last 10 ECAC Games
1.
Clarkson 16 pts (8-2-0) 28 GF 10 GA
Key wins: #2 Harvard, #5 SLU, #6 Princeton, #8 Dartmouth (OT)
Losses: #3 Quinny, #7 Yale
T2.
Princeton 15 pts (7-2-1) 29 GF 14 GA
Key wins: #2 Harvard, #4 Cornell, #5 SLU
Losses: #1 Clarkson, #7 Yale
Tie: #8 Dartmouth
T2.
Harvard 15 pts (7-2-1) 32 GF 7 GA
Key wins:#3 Quinny (OT), #4 Cornell (2x) #7 Yale
Losses: #1 Clarkson, #6 Princeton
Tie: #5 SLU
T4.
SLU 14 pts (6-2-2) 28 GF 19 GA
Key wins:#3 Quinny, #7 Yale, #8 Dartmouth
Losses:#1 Clarkson, #6 Princeton
Ties: #2 Harvard, Union
T4.
Yale 14 pts (7-3-0) 35 GF 23 GA
Key wins:#1 Clarkson, #3 Quinny, #6 Princeton, #8 Dartmouth
Losses:#2 Harvard, #5 SLU,(Brown (OT)
T6.
Cornell 12 pts (6-4-0) 35 GF 22 GA
Key wins:#3 Quinny (OT)
Losses: #2 Harvard (2x) #6 Princeton,#8 Dartmouth
T6.
QU 12 pts (6-4-0) 18 GF 14 GA
Key wins: #1 Clarkson, #7 Yale, #8 Dartmouth
Losses: #2 Harvard (OT) #4 Cornell (OT), #5 SLU, #7 Yale
8.
Dartmouth 7 pts (3-6-1) 23 GF 30 GA
Key wins:* #4 Cornell
Losses: #1 Clarkson (OT), #3 Quinny, #4 Cornell, #5 SLU, #7 Yale, (& Colgate)
Tie: #6 Princeton (*Dartmouth also beat Harvard 11 games ago)
. I like your Clarkson - Prinny scenario better.
