Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

[Old Pio]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I could point out that the relevant difference here is the capitalizing of the "C." Even so, I peed my pants.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Don't get me wrong, I largely agree with you guys. If I was a Delaware resident, I probably would have gritted my teeth and voted for Castle. I'm just not outraged about him losing. He's made his own bed here.

Agree with all your sentiments on O'Donnell, she seems loony.

And Fox is now reporting that the NRSC won't be giving her any money. Already seem to be writing it off. Maybe send some cash to Connecticut or West Virginia instead?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Don't get me wrong, I largely agree with you guys. If I was a Delaware resident, I probably would have gritted my teeth and voted for Castle. I'm just not outraged about him losing. He's made his own bed here.

Agree with all your sentiments on O'Donnell, she seems loony.

I had two words on my mind for Delaware this morning: Kobayashi Maru.

And Fox is now reporting that the NRSC won't be giving her any money. Already seem to be writing it off. Maybe send some cash to Connecticut or West Virginia instead?

That's the reality of the situation - O'Donnell is a longshot and Delaware is not a place to spend money anymore. Money spent on a candidate with a 15% shot at winning, at best, is money that isn't being spent in competitive races in Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, West Virginia, etc.

The problem is, the NRSC has zero tact. They should have waited some to make the announcement. Instead, they made it during O'Donnell's victory speech. That looks like spite. It probably is partially spite, which means they still haven't figured out why their candidates keep losing.

 

[pirate]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Wouldn't be surprised if a portion of O'Donnell's money came from Coons supporters...this way they have it much easier than fighting Castle...probably spend half as much to defeat her. Put that one in the blue column.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Castle refusing to endorse O'Donnell. Classy. Maybe him and Charlie Crist can have a nice cry together come November.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Castle refusing to endorse O'Donnell. Classy. Maybe him and Charlie Crist can have a nice cry together come November.

To be fair, O'Donnell had already indicated that she would have been just as petulant had she come out on the losing end, but this is absolutely right. Castle needs to grow a sac here.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I think the significance of the Delaware disaster are being underplayed a bit in the so called MSM. As has been mentioned, the party just p ! ssed away a Senate seat. You can't do that. Ever. Its something I'd expect more out of the Democrats, and I'm saying that as a Democrat. Is Tom Daschle heading up the RNC or something?

No sympathy for Castle, as he should have seen this coming after the Alaska election (as many of us did including Murkowski herself). I can't believe after the Martha Coakley fiasco that yet another established candidate would ignore a challenger until a week before the election. Now its happened two more times in AK and DE. Unbelievable - not that I'm complaining. He should have followed the McCain tactic frankly, or what Harry Reid is doing out in Nevada. Define your opponent before its too late.

One thing I don't get or maybe haven't seen mentioned is a lack of outreach from the winning Tea Bagger to the vanquished Establishment candidate after the election. I recall that with Hoffman in NY which cost him the seat. O'Donnell should have been on the phone with Castle that night, thanking him for his service, telling him its just politics and asking for his support. Yeah, maybe Castle's being whiny, but you need his backers to support you. Same thing in Alaska with Miller-Murkowski. Now that the primary is over, there's nothing to be gained by continuing the animosity. In a lot of these races (WA Senate too, where the Establishment won but the Tea Partier won't endorse) there's way too much bad blood.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I don't think it's that big a deal, personally.

The GOP got swept out of Washington in the last couple elections. Democrats naturally viewed it as a broad expression of support for a particular agenda. In reality, it was probably the electoral equivalent of a temper tantrum. Same thing's happening now. The odds are pretty small that Tea Party populism represents a significant and lasting realignment of the electorate. The economy will rebound, because (or despite ) Obama's efforts to help it along, and we'll be back to normal soon enough.

 

[pirate]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I don't think it's that big a deal, personally.

The GOP got swept out of Washington in the last couple elections. Democrats naturally viewed it as a broad expression of support for a particular agenda. In reality, it was probably the electoral equivalent of a temper tantrum. Same thing's happening now. The odds are pretty small that Tea Party populism represents a significant and lasting realignment of the electorate. The economy will rebound, because (or despite ) Obama's efforts to help it along, and we'll be back to normal soon enough.

abb - there is significant concern, and reason to believe, that the country can't regenerate that many jobs...I'm hoping you're right but some are saying it might be back over 10% in the future...whether we call it double dip or one long recession, only a small fraction of those who have lost jobs are back to work. So the unemployed number has less churn and more long term members. That makes sense with the other feedback about headcount increases. We'd rather the unemployed be there as they transitioned from one job to the next, even if the total number stayed in the same range. Instead, they are there and the next job is slow coming.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

The Tea Party, before tonight, had done an exceptional job of blending pragmatism with idealism. For too long, the GOP was rooted firmly in pragmatism - they were going to do whatever it took to win as many elections as possible and that was all that was important. The Tea Party worked overtime to elect Scott Brown in MA, even though he was (and is) hardly a typical Tea Party candidate. They knew he was the most they could ever expect to hope for from MA. They went after the so-called "RINOs" in the states where they didn't have to put up with them - places like Utah, Florida, and Alaska.

That's what makes Delaware all the more head-scratching. Delaware's a blue state with a serious Democrat registration advantage. Castle's kind of a RINO to be sure, but... if the GOP takes over the Senate, Mike Castle wasn't going to be calling the shots or chairing a committee or anything. But the Tea Party (not all of it, mind you - there were a number of voices of reason that didn't go kookoo for O'Donnell) got obsessed with taking down the candidates of the establishment. They're getting their pragmatism/idealism blend off kilter. Too much of either is not going to help you advance your agenda.

As any movement like the TP waxes, they are "emboldened" to demand greater adherence to their agenda. Although this is a headache for the national party that has to think about sectional realities like the ones you point out very well, the idealism of these intense, short-lived movements is inseparable from their impact -- a pragmatic, deliberate intra-party insurgency either doesn't go anywhere or slowly grows and nudges its party without headlines (nobody ever called the DLC an insurgency, but over the course of 3-4 election cycles it changed the Democratic party).

Populist revolts are messy. They have a definite appeal, though -- a moment when The System breaks down and the will of the people briefly breaks through. It's historically a Bad Idea to let them get too strong, but they are sort of the embodiment of Voltaire's quip about the occasional regicide being healthy.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Another thing not yet decided is the New Hampshire race. Does Lamantagne win (I think about 17% of the precincts are still out) or if not does he endorse Ayotte, "refudiate" her , or go 3rd party?

This was always going to be a problem, and its one I think the talking heads have given little attention to. We're not in a normal primary or election season here. Some people on both sides will refuse to be good soldiers come general election time and its worse now than I ever remember. Strictly speaking about the Senate, how moderates view Tea Party candidates in AK, CA (sorta), CO, KY, DE, NV, etc (and if Teabaggers support establishment in WA & NH maybe) are the second most crucial component to this election behind Dem enthusiam or lack thereof.

I will also reiterate the folly of some of these Senate predictions we've seen so far before primaries are decided. Some clown (might have been Charlie Cook) predicting a 10 seat takeover. Settle down Chuckie - most candidates have just started running ads and we've had few candidate debates yet.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I see... and the evidence is what? The clothes spent on RNC money? (which of course was their money... so, what exactly was the controversy?) The guy who threatened a family member?

You will ignore this, but in deference to people who are actually curious about Sarah's habitual and at times even pointless mendacity, I'll defer to somebody who did the research.

Last night on Mad Men, there was a great line: "People tell us who they are. We don't listen, but see who we want them to be." Palin tells us who she is by her actions. Her carefully constructed public image is only a projection of what her supporters want to see.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

You will ignore this, but in deference to people who are actually curious about Sarah's habitual and at times even pointless mendacity, I'll defer to somebody who did the research.

Last night on Mad Men, there was a great line: "People tell us who they are. We don't listen, but see who we want them to be." Palin tells us who she is by her actions. Her carefully constructed public image is only a projection of what her supporters want to see.

That statement is not something specific to Palin, but is generally true about politicians and their supporters. You could plug lots of other names (Obama is an easy one to think of) and it fits just as well.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

That statement is not something specific to Palin, but is generally true about politicians and their supporters. You could plug lots of other names (Obama is an easy one to think of) and it fits just as well.

Or husbands and wives, for that matter.

I didn't mean to imply that it isn't active with others. For example, D'Souza's article itself is an exercise in divining "what drives" Obama -- an attempt to "discover" motives which are really only the author's (or the author's audience's) wish-fulfillment.

If you want to know someone, know their works. Words might expiate action ("I killed him because he was coming at me with a knife") but they are not a substitute.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

You will ignore this, but in deference to people who are actually curious about Sarah's habitual and at times even pointless mendacity, I'll defer to somebody who did the research.

Last night on Mad Men, there was a great line: "People tell us who they are. We don't listen, but see who we want them to be." Palin tells us who she is by her actions. Her carefully constructed public image is only a projection of what her supporters want to see.

It seems Sarah may be taking a page from Hillary's playbook.

At various times she's claimed to have been named after Sir Edmund Hillary, except he climbed Mount Everest after she was born (her parents evidently engaging in some spectacular prescience).

And we're all aware of her "dodging sniper fire" when she landed at Tuzla. Audie Murphy ain't got nothin' on that little girl who was on hand to give her the welcoming bouquet.

She was able to turn a $1,000 investment in cattle futures into $100,000 thanks to having "read an article in the WSJ." No help whatsoever from Tyson Foods, the largest employer in Arkansas.

Finally, the worst: that just in time for her senate campaign in NY, it turns out she's been a Yankee fan all along. Throwing out the first pitch at Cubs games, singing Take Me Out to the Ball Game at Wrigley Field, the games her dad took her to, all make believe.

Given the population of New York, I suppose it's possible there are people who would base their vote for senator primarily on her baseball allegiances, but it can't be a very big number. And given the way New York Democrats have historically embraced celebrity candidates with zero connection to the Empire State (like her), it's doubtful folks there would have held support of the Cubs against her.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

That statement is not something specific to Palin, but is generally true about politicians and their supporters. You could plug lots of other names (Obama is an easy one to think of) and it fits just as well.

You know what my favorite part was? When he tried to present Andrew "Trig was totally Bristol's child" Sullivan as some kind of legitimate source for Palin news. That was hilariously awesome.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I'm willing to trade you the political death of Hillary for the political death of Sarah. Blessed be the nation for both events.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

You know what my favorite part was? When he tried to present Andrew "Trig was totally Bristol's child" Sullivan as some kind of legitimate source for Palin news. That was hilariously awesome.

Blame the source, ignore the facts. I'm thinking you may have railed against this tactic before.

You just had a marvelous post about the TP -- intelligent, well-thought-out, well-expressed. Why slip back into the usual gamesmanship?

Are you going to present contrary research that refutes that Palin was lying, or are you just going to muddy the waters and hope nobody notices? Here's your chance to argue on the merits rather than stick your fingers in your ears. Minds are changed by facts, not tirades.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Castle needs to grow a sac here.

Speaking of sac, how about Mitt Romney? Endorses O'Donnell today.

Way to stick your neck out there Mitt

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Speaking of sac, how about Mitt Romney? Endorses O'Donnell today.

Way to stick your neck out there Mitt

In all seriousness, did you expect different from Gumby?