Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

No Hitler?

Too soon.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I fear I will regret this, because sometimes when I've taken opponents at their word that they are arguing in sincerity I've gotten (IMHO) suckered*. But, here goes.

That's not what I mean by "American exceptionalism." Our values are splendid, and they deserve to be fought for. (Our values include many things both conservative and liberal.) It's also an imperfect world, so even if we diverge from those values from time to time, it's understandable -- it's a dirty world, and sometimes we have to do dirty things, so you won't find me being over-critical of say Nagasaki or Dresden.

But there is a limit to "my country, right or wrong." There's a point after which knee-jerk cheerleading for American actions is no longer in support of our values -- "America," at that point, is just wrapping paper -- what's inside is just somebody's agenda. The Alien and Sedition Acts, McCarthyism, FDR's court packing threat, Obama's shielding of CIA rendition to torturers; these are all over the line.

When our leadership is working against our values, we can and should oppose it. I know you agree with that, since you do it all the time -- it's just a difference in opinion between us as to what constitutes our fundamental values and their violation.

Although I really don't think we differ that much at heart. There's a lot of heat to arguments between mainstream left and right over values, but the amount of overlap is huge compared to, say, France or Russia, where left and right really are in enmity towards each other.

I think the main problem pairs of posters have is when x starts believing that because y holds one opinion, he's then responsible for an entire flotilla of opinions which x associates with that. y then gets justifiably offended that x makes assumptions about him, sticking him into some ridiculous box, and the spin into personal attacks commences.

(* I assume you have felt like this too, sometimes. The best bet, for an honest exchange, is probably to just keep giving the benefit of the doubt ad infinitum. There are only a couple posters who for me have lost that privilege forever, and I hope I'm not one for you, as you aren't one for me.)

Well said. And the flip side of "knee jerk cheerleading" for America is "knee jerk criticism". You're far too well read and informed to deny it exists, it's on display here every single day. And it IS my country, right or wrong. Whose country does it become when it's wrong? Is it right to turn your back on America when it's wrong (as many in my generation did during Vietnam, spelling America with a "k?")

Let's see, Kim Jong Il says one thing, President Obama says another. Until I'm proven wrong, I'm siding with the president. Those are just my instincts. And you're certainly right about guilt by association. David Duke believes in treating puppies with love, YOU believe in treating puppies with love, ergo you must think just like David Duke.

Let me confess to something. I set a trap with the reference to "The Secret History of American Communisim," hoping that someone would respond with the petulant, dismissive contempt the left generally doles out for even the thought of anti-Communism. Frankly, I wasn't expecting you to fall into the trap, but I had high hopes for some of our juveniles.

The trap is this: the book is one of a series called the Annals of Communism, collaborations between American and Russian historians and researchers, involving access to previously secret KGB and other files. And (here's the best part) is published by that well known nest of right wingers, the Yale University Press.

Nevertheless the book blows apart a cherished myth of American left wingers: that the CPUSA was an independent organization, made up of people whose primary loyalty was to the United States, people who deeply felt the inequities of our society and wanted to do something about helping our downtrodden. People who were not involved in subversion and treason against their own country. The internal documents show exactly the opposite was true.

I admire your writing style, you may be the best around here. I plod along, making my points the best I can. Subtlety is not my strong suit. To illustrate the point: remember the old TV show "Yancy Derringer," starring the legendary stuntman Jock Mahoney? One time Yancy was challenged to a duel by some prissy dude in New Orleans. At the appointed time the dude was found swishing his little foil around like a hair dresser. Yancy showed up with a British broad sword, and with one two handed swipe of that bad boy, left the prissy guy with a blade about five inches long. I'm Yancy. Not too subtle, but pretty effective. I'm NOT suggesting you're the prissy Frenchman in the tight pants BTW.

On another matter, let me just say back in July when I exploded in your direction, it was because you seemed to dismissively pronounce my statement that "there's a lot of good in America and Americans" as "political." Johnny Pohlfan had posted his heartwarming story about the veteran who saluted them as they floated by in the July 4th parade, and in the spirit of the weekend I responded.

Frankly, my feelings were hurt, since I was being sincere and not attempting to say anything "political." I didn't and don't think pointing out that there's a lot of goodness in this country is "political," it's simply the truth. We have the anniversary of 9/11 this weekend and lots of Americans did the right thing that day to help as much as they could. Hundreds of them died in the process. And to me, it's not "political" to point it out. I regret over reacting, but I do not regret the sentiments.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Oh man, what is next dtp and Rover getting drinks after a hockey game

I kid I kid!

My thing is this, even when America makes mistakes, they are still better than the rest. What makes America great though is we (usually) make amends for what we do and try and fix it. Do we go too far sometimes sure. But unlike other places here in America the pendulum flips the other the way because people change. The mistake doesnt become the new status quo leading us down the slippery slope because we always find a way to correct.

That is why Thomas Jefferson talked of freedom for all man while simultaneously owning, and never freeing any slaves. At the time slavery was the norm, but he (and others) knew sooner or later it wouldn't be you just had to give it time. In the end, no matter how stupid i might think the electorate is, as a group they will find their way to the right path, even if it kills them

That is also why I dont belong to a party and tend to have views on both sides of the isle. Sometimes a liberal action is needed and sometimes a conservative platform is the ideal. No one idea, no one method is right all the time.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

That is also why I dont belong to a party and tend to have views on both sides of the isle. Sometimes a liberal action is needed and sometimes a conservative platform is the ideal. No one idea, no one method is right all the time.

Agreed - except for the things that are truly "ideals" as opposed to policy initiatives. Those are so important that it would probably be a good idea if we wrote those things down in a list somewhere so we don't forget.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

And the flip side of "knee jerk cheerleading" for America is "knee jerk criticism". You're far too well read and informed to deny it exists, it's on display here every single day. And it IS my country, right or wrong. Whose country does it become when it's wrong? Is it right to turn your back on America when it's wrong (as many in my generation did during Vietnam, spelling America with a "k?")

There is definitely "knee-jerk criticism," and it annoys me as much as, if not more than, knee-jerk cheerleading. There is a reason I don't go to the Eugene Saturday market. (Well, another reason besides that girls looks awful with a tackle box on their face).

Today is 9/11 -- a day emphasizing America is a collectively owned and cared-for thing, and a reminder we have real enemies.

We are privileged to have a country with a culture, a history, and a functioning political system that realizes that dissent and correction are not its enemies, but its rudder.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I'd be more than happy to have a couple of beers with dtp after a game. He'd have to come to Agganis if he wanted a few during the game however as BU sells beer at the arena but I don't believe UNH does.

Speaking of NH, anybody from up there have a feel for this primary? Does Ayotte pull it off or is it Ovide Lamantagne again (I guy who I'd consider supporting just on his name alone).

Like Delaware (and Alaska) this is shaping up as a test of hard righties vs sorta moderates. IF and its a big IF, both Ayotte and Castle goes down, that seriously changes the math for the Senate in November.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

IF and its a big IF, both Ayotte and Castle goes down, that seriously changes the math for the Senate in November.

I don't see any reason to abandon Nate's methodology yet. He has the Senate as 2:1 staying Democratic and the House as 2:1 going Republican.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

New PPP shows Castle down by 3 percent.

I think I'm in the minority, but I'm really fine with however the Delaware primary goes tomorrow night. If it's Castle, then the GOP picks up Senate seat. If it's O'Donnell, it's another repudiation of the GOP establishment, which isn't really a bad thing in my mind. It probably means no shot at retaking the Senate, but that was never really a realistic possibility in my mind.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

It probably means no shot at retaking the Senate, but that was never really a realistic possibility in my mind.

It might be best for the GOP to fall just short, at that. A majority would mean having to work with Obama; a minority and they can keep throwing brick bats.

It's not like they know any better than the Dems how to rid out the recession.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

New PPP shows Castle down by 3 percent.

I think I'm in the minority, but I'm really fine with however the Delaware primary goes tomorrow night. If it's Castle, then the GOP picks up Senate seat. If it's O'Donnell, it's another repudiation of the GOP establishment, which isn't really a bad thing in my mind. It probably means no shot at retaking the Senate, but that was never really a realistic possibility in my mind.

I'm curious how many other people think like that. In the case of a tea party candidate losing, would their supporters line up behind a guy like Castle? Or do they just sit it out? Don't know how that plays out, but that's why some of these predictions are laughable. Like, I'm sure Murkowski was heavily favored in the general election. Too bad those predictions have been made useless.

Kep, I like Nate Silver's work, but any model that has assigned a likelihood of victory for one party or the other in NH, DE, or even Alaska at this point is stupid. Two of those races haven't decided the candidates yet, and the 3rd features complete unknowns.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I'm curious how many other people think like that. In the case of a tea party candidate losing, would their supporters line up behind a guy like Castle? Or do they just sit it out? Don't know how that plays out, but that's why some of these predictions are laughable. Like, I'm sure Murkowski was heavily favored in the general election. Too bad those predictions have been made useless.

Well, I think Castle's situation is a little different than someone's from a bigger state for example. I mean, the guy is Delaware politics to some extent. Evidently if there's some sort state event happening, he'll be there. So I'm not so sure he absolutely needs Tea Party support to win the seat. Even if many of them should decided to stay home, I think he'll have more than enough independents and even Dems on his side to win comfortably.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kep, I like Nate Silver's work, but any model that has assigned a likelihood of victory for one party or the other in NH, DE, or even Alaska at this point is stupid. Two of those races haven't decided the candidates yet, and the 3rd features complete unknowns.

Well, 538's attention to detail and attempt to be honest is many things, but I wouldn't call it "stupid," ever. It's kinda the opposite of stupid.

I'm not sure about the NH and DE predictions. I assume the AK prediction is based on the observation that a box turtle can win in AK if you put an "R" after it.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Well, 538's attention to detail and attempt to be honest is many things, but I wouldn't call it "stupid," ever. It's kinda the opposite of stupid.

I'm not sure about the NH and DE predictions. I assume the AK prediction is based on the observation that a box turtle can win in AK if you put an "R" after it.

Kep I'm not calling 538 stupid. I'm saying doing a Senate prediction when you don't yet know the candidates is stupid. Sometimes smart people do stupid things.

Take Delaware. Castle as nominee = Strong GOP favored in Nov. O'Donnell as nominee = Lean Dem. How you can put that into a statistical model? You can't until you know the nominee. My less scientific analysis had 5 Dem losses before some of these primary surprises (I had DE, ND, IN, AR, & NV). With Reid facing a weaker opponent than expected, I kept my predictions the same and traded out NV for say CO or PA. Now though if Castle doesn't cross the finish line tomorrow, or if Lamantagne wins in New Hampshire, that has to affect my predictions or anybody's for that matter. As the Nevada race proved, you really have wait and see who the nominee is and how well they'll face the scrutiny of a campaign. Statistical models had Harry Reid dead and buried a few months ago (and if any Dem deserved that fate, it'd be him). Now he's a little better than even odds to survive hence the folly of trying to call these things months ahead of time.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

As the Nevada race proved, you really have wait and see who the nominee is and how well they'll face the scrutiny of a campaign. Statistical models had Harry Reid dead and buried a few months ago (and if any Dem deserved that fate, it'd be him). Now he's a little better than even odds to survive hence the folly of trying to call these things months ahead of time.

Well, a model is as good as the information that point, but it certainly doesn't make it worthless. The whole idea of a model is to serve as a predictor "all other things remaining static," which of course they won't. So, back before Angle won the primary, let's say Reid had a 10% chance of beating a sane challenger and a 50% chance of beating Angle, but Angle only had a 20% chance of winning the nomination. That gave Reid .1*.8 + .5*.2 = 18% chance of winning. When Angle won, the model itself had Reid back at 50%. That doesn't negate the initial model -- it reinforces it, while also underlining that the NV GOP made a humongous mistake.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Well, a model is as good as the information that point, but it certainly doesn't make it worthless. The whole idea of a model is to serve as a predictor "all other things remaining static," which of course they won't. So, back before Angle won the primary, let's say Reid had a 10% chance of beating a sane challenger and a 50% chance of beating Angle, but Angle only had a 20% chance of winning the nomination. That gave Reid .1*.8 + .5*.2 = 18% chance of winning. When Angle won, the model itself had Reid back at 50%. That doesn't negate the initial model -- it reinforces it, while also underlining that the NV GOP made a humongous mistake.

How about "lets wait until we see the nominees first". I think you've been hanging around with TBA.

 

[Patman]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I assume the AK prediction is based on the observation that a box turtle can win in AK if you put an "R" after it.

That box turtle has removed an entire corrupt family from power. I'll let you think about that one.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

That box turtle has removed an entire corrupt family from power. I'll let you think about that one.

Too bad she's ten times as corrupt.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Democrats To Make Major Announcement Tomorrow

The source tells CNN that Kaine will announce something that will excite Democrats across the country. Kaine’s event comes as Democrats face the difficult task of holding onto their majorities in the House and Senate this November.

Oooh, I hope it's more of those sweet keychains!!!

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Oooh, I hope it's more of those sweet keychains!!!

Kodos is finally going to admit he's behind it all.

I can't imagine what Kaine thinks he's going to announce. If it's trivial it makes them look (somehow) even less organized, and if it's significant the first question is why now, why not months ago?

Honestly, what can they say? A "Contract for America"? Well, actually, that gimmick played pretty well as I recall...

 

[Patman]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Too bad she's ten times as corrupt.

I see... and the evidence is what? The clothes spent on RNC money? (which of course was their money... so, what exactly was the controversy?) The guy who threatened a family member?

Yeah, shining example of corruption right there.