D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

[PrezdeJohnson09]

I know that you really want the school you work for to make it in. I understand

Id say the same thing whether I worked here or not. I've played this numbers game for close to 20 years now and I think I have a decent handle on the process.

I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but I think there is an outside shot in the scenario I described.

But like I said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

 

[spwood]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Id say the same thing whether I worked here or not. I've played this numbers game for close to 20 years now and I think I have a decent handle on the process.

I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but I think there is an outside shot in the scenario I described.

But like I said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

I've been following the process at least as long (ah, the old ListServ UMaine days!). Without a dog in the fight, I think it would take some smoky room manipulation to get Norwich in over Middlebury. Assuming both teams lose, neither team's loss is going to be impressive enough to change the order of the teams. They have Middlebury ahead now and they should stay there if both teams lose. Again, unless the smoke-filled room strikes again. Norwich had better win their league.

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I've been following the process at least as long (ah, the old ListServ UMaine days!). Without a dog in the fight, I think it would take some smoky room manipulation to get Norwich in over Middlebury. Assuming both teams lose, neither team's loss is going to be impressive enough to change the order of the teams. They have Middlebury ahead now and they should stay there if both teams lose. Again, unless the smoke-filled room strikes again. Norwich had better win their league.

That's what my opinion is as well. Norwich plays in the easiest league (outside Colonial). I don't know why SOS helps teams as much as it does when they beat the tough teams that they play.

I suppose its not impossible....but highly unlikely.

With the way St. Norbert played last weekend, they could beat Adrian...which makes the whole discussion moot...and would make for a more interesting NCAA playoff...so I'm hoping for that

 

[pucko]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I've been following the process at least as long (ah, the old ListServ UMaine days!). Without a dog in the fight, I think it would take some smoky room manipulation to get Norwich in over Middlebury. Assuming both teams lose, neither team's loss is going to be impressive enough to change the order of the teams. They have Middlebury ahead now and they should stay there if both teams lose. Again, unless the smoke-filled room strikes again. Norwich had better win their league.

I guess I'm confused because it sounds like what everyone is saying is that no matter the scenario, Middlebury gets a Pool A. So if they lose tomorrow, they'll get one over all remaining teams (outside of the Elmira/Plattsburgh situation)? If that's the case, they should lose and take a break this weekend and rest up for the big show.

 

[spwood]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I guess I'm confused because it sounds like what everyone is saying is that no matter the scenario, Middlebury gets a Pool A. So if they lose tomorrow, they'll get one over all remaining teams (outside of the Elmira/Plattsburgh situation)? If that's the case, they should lose and take a break this weekend and rest up for the big show.

Absolutely not. You can't win and take Pool A bid. Those are for a conference champion. Middlebury isn't guaranteed anything. There are four teams ahead of them in the Pool C (at-large pool) pecking order for 2 bids. They would need three conference tournaments to go their way or they are on outside looking in. The discussion about Middlebury is that the SID of Norwich is trying to convince us all that Norwich could jump Middlebury for Pool C consideration. I don't see it, but he is advocating passionately...

Middlebury and Norwich need to win their conference. Plattsburgh and Adrian are the only two teams that I think can "take a break this weekend". Everyone else, there are scenarios where they don't get in.

 

[pucko]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Absolutely not. You can't win and take Pool A bid. Those are for a conference champion. Middlebury isn't guaranteed anything. There are four teams ahead of them in the Pool C (at-large pool) pecking order for 2 bids. They would need three conference tournaments to go their way or they are on outside looking in. The discussion about Middlebury is that the SID of Norwich is trying to convince us all that Norwich could jump Middlebury for Pool C consideration. I don't see it, but he is advocating passionately...

Middlebury and Norwich need to win their conference. Plattsburgh and Adrian are the only two teams that I think can "take a break this weekend". Everyone else, there are scenarios where they don't get in.

Whoops! Yes, I meant Pool C, not Pool A. If Middlebury doesn't win in their semifinal game tomorrow and Amherst ends up winning the NESCAC, then who is Middlebury really fighting against for that extra Pool C spot --- with the assumption that Adrian wins, Elmira vs. Platty in their finals (with one of them getting the other Pool A), and Norwich winning. There really isn't another team to consider. Lake Forest's SOS is not very good, plus they lost to Midd earlier this year. No one from the MIAC, outside of the winner, will get a bid. River Falls is all but guaranteed the Pool B bid....So, really, who would that leave for Middlebury to compete against?

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Whoops! Yes, I meant Pool C, not Pool A. If Middlebury doesn't win in their semifinal game tomorrow and Amherst ends up winning the NESCAC, then who is Middlebury really fighting against for that extra Pool C spot --- with the assumption that Adrian wins, Elmira vs. Platty in their finals (with one of them getting the other Pool A), and Norwich winning. There really isn't another team to consider. Lake Forest's SOS is not very good, plus they lost to Midd earlier this year. No one from the MIAC, outside of the winner, will get a bid. River Falls is all but guaranteed the Pool B bid....So, really, who would that leave for Middlebury to compete against?

The discussion the Norwich SID is perpetrating is that if Norwich were to lose in the NEHC finals, and Middlebury were to lose that Norwich would jump Middlebury...everyone else is being more logical and saying that that is highly unlikely since Middlebury is currently ahead of Norwich in the rankings, so why would both teams losing flop the rankings?

If Adrian wins and Plattsburgh/Elmira make it to the west championship game then it would come down to Middlebury, Lake Forest and potentially Norwich for the final Pool C spot. Middlebury should beat Lake Forest due to SOS and the H2H win. Again, Logic would dictate Middlebury over Norwich as well. If Middlebury wins the NESCAC, Amherst is in over everyone else.

So if all the favorites win:

Pool A's
Norwich
Plattsburgh
Amherst
St. Thomas
Adrian

Pool B
River Falls

Pool C
Elmira
Middlebury

If Norwich loses, I am in the group that feels that it will stay the same, just switch out Norwich for the NEHC winner probably Castleton.

The only other real possible upset I see is St. Norbert over Adrian
That would put St Norbert in the Pool A's and kick Middlebury/Amherst out of Pool C and put Adrian in.

If someone other than Middlebury or Amherst wins the NESCAC, that winner will take the Pool A and one of them will be out.

Now if all hell breaks lose and Castleton wins the NEHC, St. Norbert wins the NCHA, Oswego wins the ECAC-W, and Trinity wins the NESCAC

Your pool C's are likely Adrian and Plattsburgh

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

What you're forgetting here is that just because Team A is ahead of Team B now, doesn't mean they will be come selection time. Other teams winning/losing can affect COP and RNK. If Norwich were to get to secondary criteria the overall Win% would jump up dramatically. If Castleton were to lose, who would move in? Could it give Norwich a boost? You simply can't say this team is above this team right now so they have to be to later if they lose.

Having said that, (granted I'm not at my laptop to use the spreadsheet) I've yet to find a concrete scenario where Norwich would get close enough, let alone pass, Middlebury. Maybe if UNE was to somehow replace Castleton and Middlebury loses to Trinity?

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

What you're forgetting here is that just because Team A is ahead of Team B now, doesn't mean they will be come selection time. Other teams winning/losing can affect COP and RNK. If Norwich were to get to secondary criteria the overall Win% would jump up dramatically. If Castleton were to lose, who would move in? Could it give Norwich a boost? You simply can't say this team is above this team right now so they have to be to later if they lose.

Having said that, (granted I'm not at my laptop to use the spreadsheet) I've yet to find a concrete scenario where Norwich would get close enough, let alone pass, Middlebury. Maybe if UNE was to somehow replace Castleton and Middlebury loses to Trinity?

It would be sad if Norwich got in because they beat terrible D2 teams

 

[PSUChamps2001]

It would be sad if Norwich got in because they beat terrible D2 teams

Terrible? LoL yea St.As, Holy Cross, and FP are just slop with their 62-17-1 combined record lol. I'm sure that Wesleyan, William and Smith, Colby, half of the NCHA and MIAC would ALL be MUCH tougher competition lol

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Terrible? LoL yea St.As, Holy Cross, and FP are just slop with their 62-17-1 combined record lol. I'm sure that Wesleyan, William and Smith, Colby, half of the NCHA and MIAC would ALL be MUCH tougher competition lol

Yes...good records against "slop"

Take Franklin Pierce (i'm sure St. A's is similar since they are in the same conference.)

According to the KRACH SOS rating...FP's opponents had the following SOS ranking:

Southern Maine: 41
Plymouth: 43
UNE: 44
UMB: 46
Salve: 47
Manhattanville: 48
Nichols: 49
NEC: 53
Daniel Webster: 54

KRACH doesn't have all the new teams on it, but Becker is 6-19.

Their schedule is weak...

 

[Call It]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I guess I'm confused because it sounds like what everyone is saying is that no matter the scenario, Middlebury gets a Pool A. So if they lose tomorrow, they'll get one over all remaining teams (outside of the Elmira/Plattsburgh situation)? If that's the case, they should lose and take a break this weekend and rest up for the big show.

Does it really matter? Middlebury doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning the NCAA Championship!

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Yes...good records against "slop"

Take Franklin Pierce (i'm sure St. A's is similar since they are in the same conference.)

According to the KRACH SOS rating...FP's opponents had the following SOS ranking:

Southern Maine: 41
Plymouth: 43
UNE: 44
UMB: 46
Salve: 47
Manhattanville: 48
Nichols: 49
NEC: 53
Daniel Webster: 54

KRACH doesn't have all the new teams on it, but Becker is 6-19.

Their schedule is weak...

So let me get this straight, you're saying a win over St.As, Holy Cross, and FP are more impressive than wins over WS, Wesleyan, Colby, half of the MIAC and NCHA? You do realize that St.As and HC would be in the top 20 in KRACH and FP, while admittedly is not a Plattsburgh or Elmira (which is not the debate) would still rank near the 50% in KRACH right?

 

[Call It]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

What if Elmira loses in the Semifinal and/ or the Consolation game, are they an At Large then?

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

So let me get this straight, you're saying a win over St.As, Holy Cross, and FP are more impressive than wins over WS, Wesleyan, Colby, half of the MIAC and NCHA? You do realize that St.As and HC would be in the top 20 in KRACH and FP, while admittedly is not a Plattsburgh or Elmira (which is not the debate) would still rank near the 50% in KRACH right?

It's hard to say where FP would be in the KRACH...they have a similar record to Castleton(in the same conference) who is 19th in SOS according to KRACH, however, Castleton's non-conference schedule includes Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Williams Conn College, Colby...all higher SOS than FP's non-conference opponents Daniel Webster, Becker, Williams Smith. Its safe to assume that FP's SOS would be considerably lower than Castleton's based on those factors.

However, that's what I'm saying...but I'm gonna choose not to elaborate any further.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

It's hard to say where FP would be in the KRACH...they have a similar record to Castleton(in the same conference) who is 19th in SOS according to KRACH, however, Castleton's non-conference schedule includes Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Williams Conn College, Colby...all higher SOS than FP's non-conference opponents Daniel Webster, Becker, Williams Smith. Its safe to assume that FP's SOS would be considerably lower than Castleton's based on those factors.

However, that's what I'm saying...but I'm gonna choose not to elaborate any further.

You're comparing Castleton (a ranked team) to FP, which just goes to show you where FP would be. BTW yes FP (which was the lowest of the 3 "terrible" D2 teams I mentioned) loss 1-3 to Norwich, but outshot them 34-18 ...terrible team.

Lost to ranked Castleton 2-3, yet outshot them 33-25. For being so terrible shouldn't they have not even been in the game?

And oh yea, that's just FP....not StAs or Holy Cross....

 

[Call It]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

You're comparing Castleton (a ranked team) to FP, which just goes to show you where FP would be. BTW yes FP (which was the lowest of the 3 "terrible" D2 teams I mentioned) loss 1-3 to Norwich, but outshot them 34-18 ...terrible team.

Lost to ranked Castleton 2-3, yet outshot them 33-25. For being so terrible shouldn't they have not even been in the game?

And oh yea, that's just FP....not StAs or Holy Cross....

Looks like FP only needed an additional 16-33 shots to tie those games!

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Looks like FP only needed an additional 16-33 shots to tie those games!

So you're one of those who find it hard to comprehend too... this isn't about a score, it's about how good/not good a team(s) is. When a team can show on the ice that they can continually compete with other ranked (decent teams), I'm not sure how people can say they're terrible, and thus a win over them isn't worthy when the majority of teams have wins (counted) over much inferior opponents. (Did I lose you yet?)

The ORIGINAL discussion was Norwich getting to secondary criteria to gain some more wins against the DII teams they play, DII teams that certain people claim are "terrible". Yet amazingly enough it was proven once again that (while they're not Plattsburgh which no one has claimed), they CERTAINLY are not in the bottom half of the DIII teams that everyone else gets to beat. They (specifically FP which was the 3rd lowest DII team) are not Plattsburgh, but they are not the likes of Williams and Smith, Wesleyan, Colby ect. If we give the opponents of THOSE teams credit for their wins, why is it "sad" that we would allow wins against teams that are well above that? St.Mikes I will concede, is towards the bottom with Wesleyan and Williams and Smith, for sure. The other three are just as good of wins and the majority of a teams wins.

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

You're comparing Castleton (a ranked team) to FP, which just goes to show you where FP would be. BTW yes FP (which was the lowest of the 3 "terrible" D2 teams I mentioned) loss 1-3 to Norwich, but outshot them 34-18 ...terrible team.

Lost to ranked Castleton 2-3, yet outshot them 33-25. For being so terrible shouldn't they have not even been in the game?

And oh yea, that's just FP....not StAs or Holy Cross....

Castleton is ranked because they played the schedule they played. If they played Franklin Pierces schedule...they wouldn't be ranked

 

[Call It]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

So you're one of those who find it hard to comprehend too... this isn't about a score, it's about how good/not good a team(s) is. When a team can show on the ice that they can continually compete with other ranked (decent teams), I'm not sure how people can say they're terrible, and thus a win over them isn't worthy when the majority of teams have wins (counted) over much inferior opponents. (Did I lose you yet?)

The ORIGINAL discussion was Norwich getting to secondary criteria to gain some more wins against the DII teams they play, DII teams that certain people claim are "terrible". Yet amazingly enough it was proven once again that (while they're not Plattsburgh which no one has claimed), they CERTAINLY are not in the bottom half of the DIII teams that everyone else gets to beat. They (specifically FP which was the 3rd lowest DII team) are not Plattsburgh, but they are not the likes of Williams and Smith, Wesleyan, Colby ect. If we give the opponents of THOSE teams credit for their wins, why is it "sad" that we would allow wins against teams that are well above that? St.Mikes I will concede, is towards the bottom with Wesleyan and Williams and Smith, for sure. The other three are just as good of wins and the majority of a teams wins.

So you are saying they can Forecheck and have a good cycle perhaps BUT can't score. Scoring is kind of big deal, especially when you score more than your opponents. Or perhaps you think there is a goaltending issue?

Honestly, just busting your balls. FP is a decent team. Do their games even count in the rankings?