D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

[Call It]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I think Norwich is creeping closer to the Pool C discussion. They've won 11 in a row now. It would still be in the Cadets' best interest to win the NEHC title if they want to go dancing but I don't think its quite as far fetched as it was before with Lake Forest having a really tough ending to the season.

It'd be pretty difficult IMHO to justify putting both Middlebury and Lake Forest into the NCAA Tournament head of Norwich after NU beat Middlebury and the Middlebury beat Lake Forest.

If Norwich makes the NEHC finals, I'd say it's much closer than you think on them getting in.

But, with that being said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE. Don't leave your fate in the hands of the committee and the criteria.

With that logic than Plymouth State should be in. Castleton beat Norwich and Plymouth beat Castleton. The Cadets can't score!!!

 

[PSUChamps2001]

With that logic than Plymouth State should be in. Castleton beat Norwich and Plymouth beat Castleton. The Cadets can't score!!!

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Norwich has a slight edge in criteria compared to what Plymouth State would have. I don't think Derek is doing the A beat B who beat C so A over C. I think what he's saying is that CRITERIA wise Norwich isn't as far out of the race as it seems.

 

[nyi19]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I think Norwich is creeping closer to the Pool C discussion. They've won 11 in a row now. It would still be in the Cadets' best interest to win the NEHC title if they want to go dancing but I don't think its quite as far fetched as it was before with Lake Forest having a really tough ending to the season.

It'd be pretty difficult IMHO to justify putting both Middlebury and Lake Forest into the NCAA Tournament head of Norwich after NU beat Middlebury and the Middlebury beat Lake Forest.

If Norwich makes the NEHC finals, I'd say it's much closer than you think on them getting in.

But, with that being said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE. Don't leave your fate in the hands of the committee and the criteria.

Is anyone still suggesting Lake Forest? Would just be NESCAC loser (assuming Midd vs. Amherst) and ECACW loser (assuming Elmira/Plattsburgh) for the Pool C.

Also, when making it to your conference final is going to weaken your SOS no matter who the opponent, you probably won't do so well just MAKING it to the finals ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Scott_TG]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I, for one, would welcome Norwich into the tournament. One of my favorite games of all time was the 9-2 victory at Stafford in 2014.

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Is anyone still suggesting Lake Forest? Would just be NESCAC loser (assuming Midd vs. Amherst) and ECACW loser (assuming Elmira/Plattsburgh) for the Pool C.

Also, when making it to your conference final is going to weaken your SOS no matter who the opponent, you probably won't do so well just MAKING it to the finals ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If Middlebury were to lose to Trinity...I think Lake Forest might creep back into the picture somewhat. At that point, both teams lost in their conference semifinals. Middlebury probably still beats them out, but I think they'd be back in the discussion. At least Lake Forest lost to a ranked team where Middlebury did not. I'm interested to see what the rankings look like today. If Lake Forest is still 2W, which would be the logical thing for the west committee to do, then they are still in the discussion.

Obviously if there are any upsets in the tournaments (St. Norbert beats Adrian, Utica beats Elmira and Plattsburgh), Trinity or Conn win the NESCAC...then Middlebury/Lake Forest are both out of the discussion.

 

[Scott_TG]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

March 1 Rankings:

REGION/RANK SCHOOL IN-DIVISION RECORD OVERALL RECORD

EAST
1 Plattsburgh St. 24-1-0 24-1-0
2 Elmira 21-3-1 21-3-1
3 Amherst 20-1-3 21-1-3
4 Middlebury 18-4-3 18-4-3
5 Norwich 16-6-0 20-6-0
6 Castleton 15-4-2 17-7-2

WEST
1 Adrian 24-2-1 24-2-1
2 Lake Forest 19-4-3 20-4-3
3 Wisconsin-River Falls 20-5-2 20-5-2
4 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 19-5-2 19-5-2
5 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 17-7-3 17-7-3
6 St. Norbert 15-8-4 15-8-4

 

[nyi19]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

If Middlebury were to lose to Trinity...I think Lake Forest might creep back into the picture somewhat. At that point, both teams lost in their conference semifinals. Middlebury probably still beats them out, but I think they'd be back in the discussion. At least Lake Forest lost to a ranked team where Middlebury did not. I'm interested to see what the rankings look like today. If Lake Forest is still 2W, which would be the logical thing for the west committee to do, then they are still in the discussion.

Obviously if there are any upsets in the tournaments (St. Norbert beats Adrian, Utica beats Elmira and Plattsburgh), Trinity or Conn win the NESCAC...then Middlebury/Lake Forest are both out of the discussion.

Agreed on all counts, particularly the one where Norwich is left out of your post and the Pool C discussion altogether

 

[spwood]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

If Middlebury were to lose to Trinity...I think Lake Forest might creep back into the picture somewhat. At that point, both teams lost in their conference semifinals. Middlebury probably still beats them out, but I think they'd be back in the discussion.

Middlebury's SOS crushes Lake Forest, so with the other criteria pretty equal, I think Middlebury would get in over Lake Forest.

At least Lake Forest lost to a ranked team where Middlebury did not.

I don't think this would factor into the discussion at all.
Pool C pecking order seems to be (and the only teams with a shot at Pool C):

Plattsburgh
Adrian
Elmira
Amherst
Middlebury


My guess would be that there is no way Plattsburgh doesn't get in. I'm 95% sure there is no way Adrian doesn't get in (they beat Elmira in WIN, RNK, and H2H). Elmira only doesn't get in if St. Norbert wins the NCHA and Utica/Oswego wins the ECAC West (anyone want to lay odds on those two occurrences?) Amherst/Middleubry loser can get in if Adrian wins the NCHA and Plattsburgh or Elmira win the ECAC West. Below Middlebury, it's win the auto-bid or go home...

 

[Hammer]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Lake Forest's SOS is the death blow for them. As for Adrian, I wonder if SOS doesn't kill us as well, given the NCAA's apparent hard-on for their SOS metric. I'll believe Adrian's Pool C bid, if it comes to that, when I see it in the form of the bracket.

 

[spwood]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Lake Forest's SOS is the death blow for them. As for Adrian, I wonder if SOS doesn't kill us as well, given the NCAA's apparent hard-on for their SOS metric. I'll believe Adrian's Pool C bid, if it comes to that, when I see it in the form of the bracket.

Such a pessimist. I think the ace-in-the-hole for Adrian is their win over Elmira in November. Comparison wise, Adrian wins WIN, RNK (by a large margin) and the H2H. Elmira wins SOS, but if Elmira & Adrian are battling for Pool C, it would mean that Utica or Oswego won the ECAC West. Adrian would have lost to ranked St. Norbert, while Elmira would lose to an unranked team. Adrian would still win their three comparisons, but now the SOS would likely get a bit tighter. I really can't find a scenario where Adrian doesn't make the tournament.

 

[gojackets]

Such a pessimist. I think the ace-in-the-hole for Adrian is their win over Elmira in November. Comparison wise, Adrian wins WIN, RNK (by a large margin) and the H2H. Elmira wins SOS, but if Elmira & Adrian are battling for Pool C, it would mean that Utica or Oswego won the ECAC West. Adrian would have lost to ranked St. Norbert, while Elmira would lose to an unranked team. Adrian would still win their three comparisons, but now the SOS would likely get a bit tighter. I really can't find a scenario where Adrian doesn't make the tournament.

I agree. You really aren't comparing Adrian to Elmira, Adrian beats ElmirA, which is the highest pool c team in the east, therefore Adrian beats middlebury/Amherst as well. The real comparison is Elmira to the other teams...and clearly Elmira is beating them. If this weeks rankings are any indication, even if Adrian loses to St Norbert, they will stay the #1 ranked team in the west. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the #1 team in the west is left out and the 4th or 5th ranked team in the East gets in.


Also, don't get me wrong. I don't actually believe Lake Forest has a chance of getting in, but they will be "in the discussion"

 

[gojackets]

Agreed on all counts, particularly the one where Norwich is left out of your post and the Pool C discussion altogether

I know Derek is the presiding genius here, but he is wrong. Norwich would have to jump up to the 2nd ranked team in the east to be in pool C consideration(if someone other than Norwich wins the ECAC-E or whatever it's called these days). How are they going to do that if they lose a game?

I guess that scenario is if Adrian takes a pool C. Otherwise they have to jump Middlebury. Again if they are both in pool C discussion that means they both lost. Why would Norwich suddenly jump Middlebury when they both lost a game?

Middlebury is beating them handily in record and rank. There SOS is close but Middlebury is winning. Norwich wins H2H but even with that they are currently ranked below.

 

[Hammer]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Derek is on the East committee. I'd say he has a clue or two here.

 

[123kidd]

Derek is on the East committee. I'd say he has a clue or two here.

I don't think he is...

 

[Hammer]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I don't think he is...

He's on the Men's committee

So I stand corrected. Fair enough. But he's still a whole lot closer to the process than we are.

 

[123kidd]

He's on the Men's committee

So I stand corrected. Fair enough. But he's still a whole lot closer to the process than we are.

Ohhh, gotcha. Yes he knows the selection process then.

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

Ohhh, gotcha. Yes he knows the selection process then.

I'm pretty sure I know the process pretty darn well too

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I know Derek is the presiding genius here, but he is wrong. Norwich would have to jump up to the 2nd ranked team in the east to be in pool C consideration(if someone other than Norwich wins the ECAC-E or whatever it's called these days). How are they going to do that if they lose a game?

I guess that scenario is if Adrian takes a pool C. Otherwise they have to jump Middlebury. Again if they are both in pool C discussion that means they both lost. Why would Norwich suddenly jump Middlebury when they both lost a game?

Middlebury is beating them handily in record and rank. There SOS is close but Middlebury is winning. Norwich wins H2H but even with that they are currently ranked below.

2-4-2 vs. 2-6 is beating "handily" in RNK?

In the following scenario, Norwich has an outside chance at a Pool C in my honest opinion.

Middlebury loses to Trinity.
Trinity loses to Amherst.
Norwich beats UNE.
Norwich loses in NEHC finals.
Plattsburgh or Elmira wins ECAC West.
Adrian wins NCHA.

Don't forget, if the comparison is very close, like we all can agree this one would be....secondary criteria can begin to come into play and if that happens, Norwich goes from losing winning percentage, to winning it with four wins vs. Saint Michael's, Saint Anselm, Holy Cross and Franklin Pierce added in. Norwich would be 21-7 for a .750 winning percentage, while Middlebury would be 18-5-3 for a .722 winning percentage. SOS will basically be a wash after this weekend as long as Middlebury doesn't make NESCAC final and get a huge boost from Amherst.

With that being said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

I love the first week of March... I'm a numbers guy at heart, and this week the discussion is always all about numbers, in both the men's and women's sides of the coin!

 

[gojackets]

Re: D3 Regional Rankings and Bracketology

2-4-2 vs. 2-6 is beating "handily" in RNK?

In the following scenario, Norwich has an outside chance at a Pool C in my honest opinion.

Middlebury loses to Trinity.
Trinity loses to Amherst.
Norwich beats UNE.
Norwich loses in NEHC finals.
Plattsburgh or Elmira wins ECAC West.
Adrian wins NCHA.

Don't forget, if the comparison is very close, like we all can agree this one would be....secondary criteria can begin to come into play and if that happens, Norwich goes from losing winning percentage, to winning it with four wins vs. Saint Michael's, Saint Anselm, Holy Cross and Franklin Pierce added in. Norwich would be 21-7 for a .750 winning percentage, while Middlebury would be 18-5-3 for a .722 winning percentage. SOS will basically be a wash after this weekend as long as Middlebury doesn't make NESCAC final and get a huge boost from Amherst.

With that being said, WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

I know that you really want the school you work for to make it in. I understand