Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good
At this point, even if the Tories were to win every remaining seat, which they won't do, there would be a hung parliament. Now the horse-trading begins.
Labour last night and into this morning was practically openly campaigning for a "Lib/Lab" coalition. It will be a very touchy situation - the Tories will, by a fairly solid margin, have the most votes and the most seats. It's very clear that Brown and Labour are determined to hold onto power. As the sitting prime minister, the Queen will invite him to form the government first without a clear majority. Notably, she hasn't done that yet. Brown has actually returned to 10 Downing Street in the interim.
The Tories, it seems, would need to reach about 310 seats to even have a prayer of being able to form a coalition or minority guarantee without the Lib Dems.
Amazingly bad night for the Lib Dems despite being in their desired position holding the balance of power. No one expected them to LOSE seats, which really strengthens their call for a proportional representation system. So far they have actually lost five seats despite a gain of 1 point in the votes. Nick Clegg, however, has come out and said that with the most votes and most seats, the Conservatives deserve the right to try and form a government. What that means, it's hard to say.
The UKIP will finish with the 4th most votes, but they have no seats so far. They are holding out hope, though, as their target seat still has yet to come in.
The BNP won't have any seats, but made the biggest percentage gain in votes outside of the Tories with a fifth place finish.
Bad night for the SNP, as they don't gain any seats (neither did the Tories in Scotland), and they're in an interesting position. Labour, it is said, is lobbying with the SNP for support, while the SNP's position could be strengthened under a Conservative government without the SNP, as they could raise the claim that with one MP in Scotland, the Tories haven't got much moral right to be able to rule over Scotland.
The Plaid started with 3 seats, they ended with 3 seats, although they picked up a marginally Labour seat in Arfon which they'd previously held (it was considered a Labour seat due to changes in the boundaries).
Not much change in Northern Ireland. The only seat to change hands thus far was the shocking Peter Robinson loss in Belfast East to the Alliance Party. That's a minor blow to the Tories, as the DUP would likely work with them, while the Alliance Party is more likely to support the Lib Dems. The Tories official partners, the Ulster Unionists, were completely shut out.
My scorecard:
Tory/Lib Dem battlegrounds
Romsey & Southampton North - Tory gain over Lib Dem.
Taunton Deane - Lib Dem hold.
Somerton & Frome - Lib Dem hold.
Three-way battles
Norwich South - Lib Dem gain over Labour.
Ochil & South Perthshire - Labour hold.
Tories on defense
Eastbourne - Lib Dem gain over Tory.
Labour ministers in trouble
Morley & Outwood - Labour hold.
Renfrewshire East - Labour hold.
Tooting - Labour hold.
Labour incumbents on the sideline
Watford - Tory gain over Labour.
Ealing Central & Acton - Tory gain over Labour.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone - Not in.
Buckingham - Not in.
Brighton Pavilion - Green gain over Labour (their first seat ever).
The BNP
Barking - Labour hold (BNP third).
Dagenham & Rainham - Labour hold (BNP third).
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Labour hold (BNP fourth).
Arfon - Plaid Cymru gain over Labour.
Bethnal Green & Bow - Labour gain over Respect (one of three Labour pickups).
Poplar & Limehouse - Labour hold (Galloway third).
Wyre Forest - Tory gain over independent.
Thirsk & Malton - May 27th.
