British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The Prime Minister is speaking outside of Number 10. This'll probably put his intentions in the clear.

EDIT: He basically says that he understands Clegg's position and will give Clegg and Cameron time to have discussions, but that he's willing and able to have formal discussions with Clegg if nothing comes of the discussions. No "grand coalition" is forthcoming.

EDIT #2: Buckingham has come in. Speaker John Bercow has been re-elected, and the UKIP's Nigel Farage was well back in third place.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
The most interesting seat in Northern Ireland is in the usual republican stronghold of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew has held this seat for nine years, but the DUP and UUP agreed not to field candidates and instead support an independent unionist, Rodney Connor. Complicating matters is the SDLP's decision not to pull their candidate to similarly unify the republican vote. Gerry Adams sounded all but resigned to losing this seat last night during the debate, and the move (and lack of a move by the SDLP) was a major sectarian issue.

Gildernew and Sinn Fein retain - by FOUR votes over Connor.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The final constituency (other than Thirsk & Malton) has been announced. So we have the following official final (net gain/loss, total votes, percent votes):

Conservatives - 307 (+97, 10.7m, 36.1%)
Labour - 258 (-91, 8.6m, 29.1%)
Liberal Democrats - 57 (-5, 6.8m, 23.0%)
DUP - 8 (-1, 168k, 0.6%)
SNP - 6 (0, 491k, 1.7%)
Sinn Fein - 5 (0, 172k, 0.6%)
Plaid Cymru - 3 (+1, 165k, 0.6%)
SDLP - 3 (0, 111k, 0.4%)
Green - 1 (+1, 285k, 1.0%)
Alliance - 1 (+1, 43k, 0.1%)
Independent - 1 (0, 320k, 1.1%)
UKIP - 0 (0, 915k, 3.1%)
BNP - 0 (0, 563k, 1.9%)
UUP - 0 (-1, 102k, 0.3%)

Of note:
* Following on their first ever first-place showing in last year's European elections, Sinn Fein has polled first place now in Westminster elections for the first time, although they are still behind the DUP in seats by 3. A very successful election for them considering this and their exceptionally narrow hold in Fermanagh & South Tyrone - the only thing that would have improved it for them would have been to increase their seat total. They earned swings in 8 of 18 seats, including a couple of DUP held constituencies and both constituencies in which they ran against eventual SDLP winner.

* Plaid Cymru came in with 3 seats and leaves with three seats, but their share of the Welsh vote dropped by 1.3%, partially due to Tory gains. The SNP also came out with the same number of seats they came in with, but they earned 2.3% more of the vote share in Scotland, moving them past the Lib Dems for 2nd place. The SNP and Plaid are still allied and want to use their 9 votes to push to be part of a coalition or part of a power agreement, but it's unlikely they'll be able to unless there's a Lib/Lab coalition, and SNP working with Labour is kind of a fanciful idea.

* Labour won the vote and seat race in both Scotland and Wales, while the Tories took England (the main prize).

 

[Rover]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Tactically brilliant move by Clegg to negotiate with the Tories first. This dispels any charges of a "corrupt bargain" with Labor if the Lib-Con alliance doesn't work out (and they seem to have some distance between them on issues). This won't help Labor any even if they do strike a deal, but it does set up Clegg to once again be the rational dealmaker/kingmaker in an inevitable rerun of the election this year or next all the while preserving the appearance of impartiality to the voters of the two other major parties.

 

[Terrierbyassociation]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Clegg promised to give whoever won the most seats the first chance at wooing him to create the new government.

He needs to play this hand as perfectly as possible.

He needs to get what he wants out of this: if he doesn't get what he wants from Cameron he turns around and plays Brown.

Then he can play with competing offers.

His promise wasn't that he would make a government with the winner but that he would give the winner first crack at creating the coalition.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Clegg promised to give whoever won the most seats the first chance at wooing him to create the new government.

He needs to play this hand as perfectly as possible.

He needs to get what he wants out of this: if he doesn't get what he wants from Cameron he turns around and plays Brown.

He's probably going to have to spin pretty hard to make a coalition with Brown work, not to mention they're going to have to reach out to parties they wouldn't normally want to work with, since Lib/Lab + SDLP + Alliance + Green only equals 320, which isn't enough to reach a majority (barely). The SNP is probably part of that group, and they're going to demand major concessions to work with Labour.

Even then, public opinion polls before the election were in strong favor of whichever party earned the most seats and/or votes either governing with a minority or part of any governing coalition. If the Lib Dems spurn the Tories completely, they may have public opinion running against both them and Labour with another election so obviously less than a year and a half away.

There's discussion that Cameron might throw Clegg a bone in promising a referendum on proportional representation, but the Tories would inevitably campaign against it after putting it in place. A compromise, like further Lords reform (possibly on a PR basis) might work.

I think if Clegg's smart, in light of his party's performance, he either lets the Tories run a minority government (that is, he promises not to vote down the Queen's Speech) or enters a coalition with them with only a few of the less major cabinet posts going to Lib Dems. That way, with another election probably not that far off, he can position his party well to either associate themselves with any Tory successes or claim blamelessness with any Tory failures.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

with another election so obviously less than a year and a half away

Can you explain this a little? I can see a coalition or minority government as being inherently unstable, but is the short-term prediction just averaging out how long it will take to hit the policy difference that will force another election?

And for that matter, if the elections are so close together, why would the result be any different? I assume the first thing Labour will do is dump Brown for a new face, but are the Brits wobbling towards a "presidential" mindset that's all about the personality at the top of the party?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Can you explain this a little? I can see a coalition or minority government as being inherently unstable, but is the short-term prediction just averaging out how long it will take to hit the policy difference that will force another election?

It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for another election to take place within the calendar year. That happened the last time an election resulted in a hung parliament, back in 1974.

A Conservative coalition or minority might be a touch more stable but not by much. Any Lib/Lab coalition is going to get pushed pretty hard as a "losers coalition" given that both parties lost seats in this election.

And for that matter, if the elections are so close together, why would the result be any different?

Well, for one thing, with closer turnaround, the parties will know even better which seats they are targeting and what they can do differently to tweak their campaigns to improve in individual constituencies. A desire for stability may see turnout increase for one party or another.

I assume the first thing Labour will do is dump Brown for a new face, but are the Brits wobbling towards a "presidential" mindset that's all about the personality at the top of the party?

It's actually been like that for a few generations, but the internet and TV debate age may be galvanizing support for the top parties, too.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Cartoon and punditry on Single Transferable Vote, the LibDem PR scheme. I take it the Daily Mail does not care for this Clegg chap, no sir.

Godwin's Law nomination:

Hitler came to power through the Proportional Representation system.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

It's a scare tactic, of course, to say that Hitler came to power through PR, but in my view there's a lot not to like about PR.

For instance, say you took England as a single consituency under PR. The BNP would earn 11 seats in Parliament. Instead, under first past the post and 533 individual constituencies in England, they didn't earn a one.

PR also makes it nearly impossible to get rid of a politician you don't like if he's entrenched well enough on his party list.

There's a reason why the Lib Dems are a big supporter of PR - they would probably become perpetual kingmakers under such a system.

If I were British, I'd probably be in favor of IRV - instant runoff voting - instead. Heck, I'm already a proponent for it here in the US. It's more fair to smaller parties without giving up the best parts about FPTP.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I like the idea of direct local representation -- that to me is the best part of FPTP. If I don't like something Congress is doing I can call my Congressman. Of course, my Congressman is a right wing fanatic in desperate need of psychological care, but that makes him highly representative of my neighbors -- it's as it should be.

It does blow, however, that a party could theoretically poll 49% of the country and still get zero seats -- plus it hurts parties with weak geographical bases more, which means it actually devalues idea content in favor of accidents of local favoritism. We faced a similar situation with race and "solved" it by court-blessed, racially-determined gerrymandering. IMHO that was an awful solution, but that's because the nerd Slovak bloc never got ours.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Some new developments:

- Tory and Lib Dem MPs have been in negotiations, but neither Cameron or Clegg are involved. Clegg and Brown spoke on the phone for half an hour today. The three appeared together this morning to lay wreaths for V-E Day.

- Alex Salmond of the SNP unexpectedly called upon the Lib Dems to form a "progressive alliance" with Labour, the SNP, and Plaid Cymru. Labour pretty quickly dismissed it as "a desperate attempt to make himself look relevant after a terrible general election result."

- The expected Labour revolt may be germinating. Labour MP John Mann, who's considered a credible figure, has called upon Gordon Brown to step down as PM and leader of the party.

 

[Hammer]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Gordon Brown will resign, per MSN.com.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Gordon Brown will resign.

Thanks for the heads-up. This is breaking right now, but it wasn't terribly unexpected. Labour lost almost 100 seats and their majority, it was almost always going to be difficult for him to stay PM even under a Lib/Lab coalition.

The impetus for this is that Nick Clegg has asked to begin formal negotiations with Labour. That may mean that talks with the Tories have broken down. That may be good for the party going forward, but it might be disastrous for David Cameron personally.

In a sense, though, it does sort of put Labour behind the eight-ball, though. It's a parliamentary, not a presidential system, but at least people voted for Brown to be PM. Any new Labour leader would not have been an "elected PM" the way Tony Blair was and how Brown never was.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

David Miliband is the odds-on favorite (always, always look to the bookmakers in Britain to get a sense of what's going to happen in the future) to become the next leader of the Labour Party. He's been in Parliament since 2001, is the sitting Foreign Secretary, and is the son of renowned Marxist theorist Ralph Miliband.

Alistair Darling (current Chancellor of the Exchequer), Alan Johnson (Home Secretary), Ed Miliband (Energy and Climate Change Minister, David's brother), and Ed Balls (Education and Schools Minister) are other favorites.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

"Prime Minister Darling" sounds like a Blackadder joke.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

William Hague, former Tory leader and the leader of the Tories' negotiation team, is speaking right now offering the Lib Dems a "final offer," promising the Lib Dems a referendum on "AV" (alternate voting, what we call instant runoff voting in the US), which was a plank of the Labour manifesto as well.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Would they run IRV by iterating through the ballots dropping the bottom candidate until somebody got 50%? (i.e. IRV + FPTP, not PR)

What percentage of the current seats would that have affected?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Would they run IRV by iterating through the ballots dropping the bottom candidate until somebody got 50%? (i.e. IRV + FPTP, not PR)

What percentage of the current seats would that have affected?

Yeah, they'd do that or they'd do a two round system, where they'd drop all but the top 2 after the first round.

I don't know how many current seats would be affected but the vast majority of them, I believe, would go to at least a second round under IRV.

While there's a general sense that the Lib Dems off Labour would benefit from IRV, or vice versa, don't count out the number of Tory voters who would prefer the UKIP or vice versa.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

My understanding of IRV is it eliminates the choice between tactical and sincere voting. Basically, I can vote Silly Party but ensure my vote isn't wasted by having my Lesser of Two Evils vote farther down the card.

Right?

I would think that would be great for small parties.