British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

My understanding of IRV is it eliminates the choice between tactical and sincere voting. Basically, I can vote Silly Party but ensure my vote isn't wasted by having my Lesser of Two Evils vote farther down the card.

Right?

I would think that would be great for small parties.

Right. Say you're a Eurosceptic and support the UKIP's position of pulling out of Europe, but you're concerned that the Lib Dem candidate will win your seat. In the current situation, if the Tories are the ones seen to be the one that can stop them, and you can "live with" the Tories even if they aren't your choice, you vote for the Tory and your preferred party, the UKIP, gets nothing at all.

Under IRV, you can still vote for UKIP first, but if they don't get enough votes and won't win, your vote then moves onto the second round, and you can rank another party, perhaps the Tories, 2nd.

Some, especially opponents of IRV in the US, have claimed that this is unfair because it gives some people more than one vote. In reality, everyone still gets the same number of votes - in the second round, if your party hasn't been eliminated, you are in essence voting for them again. It's an "instant runoff" in every sense of the term. There are "delayed runoffs" in the US all the time, do those people get multiple votes too? This one just does the runoff right away.

Tactical voting still (sort of) can take place under IRV, but it's much more difficult to effect.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

opponents of IRV in the US

Who would be an opponent, other than a Democratic or Republican party operative? Seriously?

I always thought the opposition to IRV was the possibly justified fear that the majority of voters are lucky to be able to tie their shoes let alone figure out an If... Then... Else statement.

 

[joecct]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

David Miliband is the odds-on favorite (always, always look to the bookmakers in Britain to get a sense of what's going to happen in the future) to become the next leader of the Labour Party. He's been in Parliament since 2001, is the sitting Foreign Secretary, and is the son of renowned Marxist theorist Ralph Miliband.

Alistair Darling (current Chancellor of the Exchequer), Alan Johnson (Home Secretary), Ed Miliband (Energy and Climate Change Minister, David's brother), and Ed Balls (Education and Schools Minister) are other favorites.

If Miliband is the Labour leader does this mean a shift to the left (again)?? Didn't Labour learn anything from the Thatcher years?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

If Miliband is the Labour leader does this mean a shift to the left (again)?? Didn't Labour learn anything from the Thatcher years?

Gordon Brown already represented a shift away from Blair's "New Labour." Miliband would probably hasten that shift, yes, especially considering he would have to depend very heavily, more so than the Tories, upon the Lib Dems in order to hold power.

EDIT: I was thinking of the wrong Miliband. David is considered a Blairite, his brother Ed is more closely aligned with Brown.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The Irish parties are starting to outlay their positions. The DUP, which has 8 MPs, said they're not completely opposed to a Lib/Lab coalition, but that they would vote in the best interests of Northern Ireland regardless of the coalition's decisions.

The SDLP, as expected, fully supports the idea of a Lib/Lab coalition, in part because they usually take the Labour whip anyway. The single independent unionist is on board as well.

The Alliance MP hasn't made her feelings known, but Alliance is, erm, allied with the Lib Dems in Europe, so it's likely she'll go whichever way they do.

Sinn Fein, naturally, doesn't give a ****, but it is worth noting that the absence of their 5 MPs means that any alliance needs to reach 324 rather than 326.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Sinn Fein, naturally, doesn't give a ****, but it is worth noting that the absence of their 5 MPs means that any alliance needs to reach 324 rather than 326.

Does Sinn Fein even recognize the existence of the United Kingdom?

 

[3W]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

This election really is Britain's Florida moment, isn't it?

It'll never happen, but wouldn't the best idea at this point be to say "OK, let's all form the government, we'll apportion ministers by percentage of the vote, everyone gets a little sugar and we'll give it another go at the ballot box next summer."

I believe that the BBC may have brought this upon the British people by, for only the second election since 1979, not using this EPIC intro, which is from "The Myths and Legends of King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table," by Rick Wakeman.

This just screams "ATTENTION! WE'RE BRITISH AND WE'RE HAVING AN ELECTION TODAY!"

And they didn't use it. Clearly, everyone needs a do-over.

This is its first use, in 1979. Watch the clip to its conclusion for some fun. David Dimbleby, the man who guided the Beeb through 18 consecutive hours last week is here (his amusement over Big Ben telling the correct time in one of their graphics is rather funny), as well as a massive anachronism at the 3:25 mark (no, not Maggie Thatcher. ) that I won't give away.

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[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Labour gives SNP the finger. Not a big surprise, I guess.

Meanwhile, here's a fun comparison:

Former Tory Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind said Labour attempts to form "a coalition of the defeated" was a "negation of democracy".

He said a government "cobbled together" between Labour and the Lib Dems would be "illegitimate".

Mr Rifkind, the MP for Kensington, said the Tories got two million more votes than Labour.

He said: "The idea that the two parties that suffered most in this election, that were rejected by the electorate, should put together an illegitimate government - this is Robert Mugabe-style politics.

"That's exactly what Mugabe did. He lost the election and scrabbled to hang on to power in the most illegitimate way."

 

[SPIN CONTROL]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

"Prime Minister Darling" sounds like a Blackadder joke.

Prime Minister Balls....


the comedy is endless with that one.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Wow, that was fast.

Number 10 recognises that talks with the Lib Dems have not and will reach not any positive conclusion, and they are now discussing the method of declaring that their side of the negotiation is over, BBC Radio 5 Live's political correspondent Jon Pienaar says.

The Lib Dems are also saying that the Tory offer is the "only one on the table." Pienaar also says talks between the Lib Dems and the Tories are now at the final "dotting the Is and crossing the Ts" stage. To use the metaphor of poker, Labour have folded and thrown in their cards.

 

[3W]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

When Labour told the SNP to, in the English vernacular, **** off, did they not make it mathematically impossible to make a majority without the support of Northern Irish Unionists that would fall under the Conservative whip?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

When Labour told the SNP to, in the English vernacular, **** off, did they not make it mathematically impossible to make a majority without the support of Northern Irish Unionists that would fall under the Conservative whip?

They may have been under the impression that they could have been able to work with the DUP. It wouldn't have been outside the realm of possibilities, but they might have been thinking that the DUP are at least a lot more loyal to the Crown than the SNP and the Plaid are. The DUP and the single independent unionist would have been the same number of votes as the SNP and Plaid would have represented.

At any rate, I was surprised that it was the SNP that went to Labour and not vice versa, but those two parties are bitter enemies in Scotland even though they are ideologically similar with the notable exception of the Scottish independence issue so the end result isn't terribly surprising.

Starting to look like it's a done deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. This was ultimately always going to result in the most stable government moving forward, since it only requires two parties and the Tories probably wouldn't have been able to be effective without the Lib Dems. The Lib/Lab coalition would have inherently required more parties to support them, since they wouldn't have reached a majority on their own - leaving things up to the whims of more individuals holding the balance of power and creating a less stable government.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Brown's lectern is outside of Number 10. Looks like he's about to officially resign (previously, he'd only agreed to stand down as Labour leader) and pave the way for David Cameron to become PM.

He will head off to Buckingham Palace and ask the Queen to give David Cameron the opportunity to form a government. This doesn't mean the Tory/Lib Dem agreement is complete, it means Labour is officially throwing in the towel and will not seek to form the government.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

It's official - the Queen has accepted Brown's resignation. Word is that he will also stand down as an MP and return to private life, which means there will be a by-election in Scotland for his seat (it's a safe Labour seat), and that the Labour leadership contest will start sooner than expected.

David Cameron is on his way to Buckingham now, where the Queen will formally invite him to form the next government. I'm not sure if that makes him Prime Minister immediately but I believe it does.

No one knows for sure whether this will be a Tory minority government or whether there will be a formal Tory/Lib Dem coalition in which the Lib Dems get a handful of cabinet posts (including, if rumors are true, Deputy Prime Minister for Nick Clegg).

If there is a coalition, one wonders how the setup for PMQs will go. Not terribly important, of course, but it's basically the only exposure Americans get to British Parliament. Traditionally the Leader of the Opposition, in this case, the Labour party, gets six questions and the leader of the third largest party gets two questions. If the third largest party is part of the government, does that mean those questions fall to the fourth largest party? That would be the DUP.

 

[Puck Swami]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

What about Nigel Incubator-Jones?

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Funny.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Funny.

Boy, a lot of that seems completely bogus, especially the fixed term agreement. If that were real, that would be a bombshell that would have been discussed on the BBC by now, especially given that Sullivan is crediting Nick Robinson, who is the Beeb's top political reporter.

Reeks of Andrew Sullivan talking out off his rear again.

Speaking of talking out of your rear... Beeb retracted their statement that Brown was standing down as an MP, which is admittedly a bit awkward to go from Prime Minister to being an opposition backbencher.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

especially the fixed term agreement

I was thinking that such a significant change would require a lot more than a decision between power brokers, even if your constitution's made of invisible pixie dust.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Really interesting stuff watching this changeover. Cameron is now at Number 10 speaking for the first time as Prime Minister, where just a couple of hours ago, Brown was there as PM announcing his decision to leave.

Cameron is confirming that there will indeed be a coalition government.

Nick Robinson mentioned the fixed term just a moment ago. So odd. The whole thing does revolve around the Tories and the Lib Dems both adhering to the agreement.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The jist of Alex Salmond's response to Cameron's premiership?


WHARRGARBL

It's been confirmed that Nick Clegg will become Deputy Prime Minister (largely a ceremonial position that isn't even always filled, but it does at least give him an aire of legitimacy within the government), and that four Cabinet spots will be filled with Lib Dems.

Contrary to Andrew Sullivan's assertion, George Osbourne will indeed be the new Chancellor (which is the real #2 spot). William Hague, who took the Tories into the 2001 election with (faint) hopes of becoming Prime Minister, will be the new Foreign Secretary.

David Cameron is the youngest Prime Minister since the early 1800s, during the rule of George III.

Obama called to say hi. "I reiterated my deep and personal commitment to the special relationship between our two countries - a bond that has endured for generations and across party lines, and that is essential to the security and prosperity of our two countries, and the world." Obama also praised Gordon Brown's "strong leadership during challenging times."

If I may drop my non-partisan veneer for a moment to discuss a matter of domestic discussion - I don't believe either statement. There have been plenty of close, personal relationships between American Presidents and British Prime Ministers that are legendary - most notably, FDR and Churchill, Reagan and Thatcher, and Bush and Blair. Obama and Brown was a regrettable chapter in that history, and the former really didn't give much indication that he cared a whip for the "special relationship" or Brown. Considering that he already called Cameron a "lightweight" during his EuroSwoon Tour '08, I'm pretty skeptical on his statement.