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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Friday 538 roundup.

Biden likelihoods:
Code: 
11 SC
20 AK
35 TX
44 OH
50 IA
50 GA
51 ME-2
67 NC
67 AZ
70 FL
78 NE-2
86 WI
------ <-- tip
87 PA
92 MI

Dem flip likelihoods (assume AL flips to R, so we need 4):
Code: 
23 SC
32 MT
39 GA-Regular
54 GA-Special
56 IA
------ <-- tip
62 ME
64 NC
78 AZ
83 CO
 
Last edited:
Handyman said:
There is going to be a story in a month or two where we find out the money he got from PPP went into his own pocket which then went to campaign contributions. (which the story is hinting at) There are a lot of lawyers ready to jump at this case and you know the media will be since one of their sources just got Bill Barred. I smell a nice settlement coming...
Click to expand...

Isn’t that the story with the woman who owns the Strand Bookstore in NYC? They tweeted that business is down, lots of celebrities jumped on the bandwagon. Then people started responding how the owner got PPP money and invested it in Amazon and laid off workers.
 
jericho said:
Wait...He claims he's a "sovereign citizen?" Demand to see the guy's passport or SS card and when he refuses, throw his *** in jail, then say he's in the country illegally and send him to whatever country you choose.
Click to expand...

That just means he's a "Constitutionalist," and he won't listen to anyone who isn't elected.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
https://www.facebook.com/petebuttigieg/photos/a.1054923614527333/3702769399742728/?type=3

Lol. I don’t know why, but this is a great campaign photo. Pete on the stump in Wisconsin stops to get beer, somehow doesn’t make it look like he’s never drank one in his life.
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You see the video clip of Biden handing out sixpacks to the fire station in I can't remember where? Told them like earlier in his campaign, or even years ago, that the next time he came back, he'd bring them beer.

Edit: Actually, he told them back in 2012. Someone's staff is on the ball.

 
aparch said:
I'm nervous that the popular vote will swing wildly to Biden, but the EC will eek out a Trump re-election.
Click to expand...

For that to happen the polls would have to be so messed up to the point where polling firms would be so distrusted they'd be out of business.

There is not a single state Clinton won in 2016 that trump is expected to flip and there are 6 states with over 100 EC votes that Biden is ahead in all the polling aggregates now, and for the most part has been ahead in since the conventions. There are 2 other states that trump won in 2016 that Biden has a 50-50 shot in.

Texas and Georgia have moved so far towards Biden that trump has to spend time there, something that wasn't close to happening in 2016. If Georgia voters are turning blue, how can voters in states like PA or MI not be turning even bluer?

If the popular vote swings wildly to Biden's favor but somehow does not bring with it an EC win, where are those votes coming from? Are the only going to come from CA or NY or MASS? It would have taken just a little over 100,000 votes in 3 states to have completely changed history. If Biden wins the popular vote by 6 or 7 million votes, how in the world will those votes be arranged to still provide an EC win for trump?

I won't go so far as one poster sometimes does (and famously did last time around) and say there is no way it is possible for trump to win, but I just don't see it. Now mind you, I am speaking about an election where the vast majority of votes are actually counted, and we don't see millions intimidated out of even being able to vote. If people are more or less allowed to vote, and those votes are counted more or less fairly, I think Biden wins by more popular votes than anyone since the 1980s at least, and takes a haul of EC votes north of 350.
 
Scarlet said:
Isn’t that the story with the woman who owns the Strand Bookstore in NYC? They tweeted that business is down, lots of celebrities jumped on the bandwagon. Then people started responding how the owner got PPP money and invested it in Amazon and laid off workers.
Click to expand...

Sounds about right.
 
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