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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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WeAreNDHockey said:
For that to happen the polls would have to be so messed up to the point where polling firms would be so distrusted they'd be out of business.

There is not a single state Clinton won in 2016 that trump is expected to flip and there are 6 states with over 100 EC votes that Biden is ahead in all the polling aggregates now, and for the most part has been ahead in since the conventions. There are 2 other states that trump won in 2016 that Biden has a 50-50 shot in.

Texas and Georgia have moved so far towards Biden that trump has to spend time there, something that wasn't close to happening in 2016. If Georgia voters are turning blue, how can voters in states like PA or MI not be turning even bluer?

If the popular vote swings wildly to Biden's favor but somehow does not bring with it an EC win, where are those votes coming from? Are the only going to come from CA or NY or MASS? It would have taken just a little over 100,000 votes in 3 states to have completely changed history. If Biden wins the popular vote by 6 or 7 million votes, how in the world will those votes be arranged to still provide an EC win for trump?

I won't go so far as one poster sometimes does (and famously did last time around) and say there is no way it is possible for trump to win, but I just don't see it. Now mind you, I am speaking about an election where the vast majority of votes are actually counted, and we don't see millions intimidated out of even being able to vote. If people are more or less allowed to vote, and those votes are counted more or less fairly, I think Biden wins by more popular votes than anyone since the 1980s at least, and takes a haul of EC votes north of 350.
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Yeah...that is the issue Trump has at this point he isnt in a position to flip any states he lost last time so he needs to hold the line or he is in all sorts of trouble. That is why new polls are panicking people even if they tighten things up. Biden has paths to victory if he loses Flo(R)ida and Trump really doesn't. Biden doesn't need to win Ohio but Trump absolutely does. I believe I read Nate say in all the simulations they ran trump never won if he lost Iowa. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona...that stuff is found money for Biden but is death by a thousand paper cuts for Trump.

The one thing no one counted on in 2016 was the number of people who didn't vote or left President blank. That is something you can never really count on when polling. Now it is true that could be a problem this time...but 56 million votes have been cast already and I highly doubt any of them did that.

There is no guarantee here, but this would be quite the upset.
 
French Rage said:
So about those young voters: https://twitter.com/fred_guttenberg/status/1319828267625598977
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Teenage-rebellion.jpg
 
Jimjamesak said:
How undecided voters look...
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"The Surgeon is clearly a privileged elite..."
"Yeah So?
"Obviously that means he worships the devil and he dissects baby squirrels"
"There is no reason to believe the surgeon does any of that!"
"But the idea is out there now!"
"Only because you said it!"
"I know but now that it is out there it feels so icky!"

That about sums up half this country at this point...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Imagine if pollsters are getting the polls wrong but in the wrong way than we suspect. That 18-22yos are significantly underrepresented because they’re at home and don’t get polled.

I know that’s not how polls work entirely. But that’s a world I want to live in.
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The margin of error works both ways. The polls are just as likely to be understating Biden's lead as overstating it. We only worry about the latter because of what it means and because that's what happened 4 years ago. But historically the polls can miss in either direction.
 
unofan said:
The margin of error works both ways. The polls are just as likely to be understating Biden's lead as overstating it. We only worry about the latter because of what it means and because that's what happened 4 years ago. But historically the polls can miss in either direction.
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Plus, no matter how much polls try to get accurate counts they are still not going to always be right and are rather easy to misinterpret or even manipulate.

The problem is that people just read the headline and ignore the meat and potatoes of the poll or the explanation of the poll. They are letting the overall stats speak the story when they only tell part of it. Then they go to an aggregate site like 538 and see the odds and sometimes they make little sense based on what they are reading. People are kind of Cliff's Notesing the polls.

I will say Nate is much better now at explaining what is going on than he was in 2016 when the spotlight was on him. He wasn't wrong then but he never really corrected anyone who was using his site to prove Hillary couldn't lose and blah blah blah. Sure if you read the chats they had on the web site they broke it down greatly but to the people seeing him interviewed on say CNN he never really broke down how the whole thing worked which is why he took a lot of unwarranted heat after Trump won. No one who has seen his site now can honestly say he isnt on the ball this time because he makes sure to mention just because someone is the underdog doesnt mean they cant win. He also explains why the polls change over time even if nothing significant happens and the polling numbers stay consistent. I do think dx is on to something about the youth being under-counted.

The weird thing now though is a bias the Left seems to have against themselves. As you point out the MOE works both ways. The Left seems to believe it can only work against them not towards them. I get being cautious and emotionally hedging your bet but there isnt a whole lot of evidence out there right now that should be making you think things are going to tank.
 
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One thing I will say, as much as I hate to, it is who comes out and votes. A lot (all?) of these sites model based on Bayesian a approach. The past is used as the first iteration and results from today are fed into it and y(n+1) is spit out. If the turnout is so outside of historical norms for the youth vote, there isn’t a model out there that will capture that.

Again, daydreaming, but this is going to be another year where the pollsters and analysts learn a lot. They’ll have to actually be careful with what they learn I suspect. Trying to apply this year’s turnout, spreads, etc. to any other year is going to be very perilous.
 
Article last week had Trump's own campaign indicating they saw three paths to victory.

All three of them depended on winning North Carolina. So far, most polls have Biden leading there, although pretty much within the margin of error.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
One thing I will say, as much as I hate to, it is who comes out and votes. A lot (all?) of these sites model based on Bayesian a approach. The past is used as the first iteration and results from today are fed into it and y(n+1) is spit out. If the turnout is so outside of historical norms for the youth vote, there isn’t a model out there that will capture that.

Again, daydreaming, but this is going to be another year where the pollsters and analysts learn a lot. They’ll have to actually be careful with what they learn I suspect. Trying to apply this year’s turnout, spreads, etc. to any other year is going to be very perilous.
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We also won't know until the results are in whether increased early voting presaged increased overall voting or just a shift from Election Day in-person.

Though it seems obvious to me (and to Republicans, obviously) that more and more convenient ways to vote means more people voting.
 
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Handyman said:
"The Surgeon is clearly a privileged elite..."
"Yeah So?
"Obviously that means he worships the devil and he dissects baby squirrels"
"There is no reason to believe the surgeon does any of that!"
"But the idea is out there now!"
"Only because you said it!"
"I know but now that it is out there it feels so icky!"

That about sums up half this country at this point...
Click to expand...
“Don’t describe the facts of the world around me if they’re bad!”
 
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