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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

I know for Alaska my barometer is going to be the turnout at my local precinct in my heavily Democratic district. I had a hunch during the primary back in August after seeing a lot of signatures on the voter roll that things were going to go well for the Dems, and lo and behold they did. Same thing back in 2022 as well.
 
Just saw a nice Legal Eagle video about the upcoming election and the probable lawsuits.

And the key seems to be the provisional ballots being counted or not. So to be safe, Harris needs to win by a margin much bigger than the provisional ballots. Then it would be hard to really call into question the votes and to certify or not.

By that, I mean by Jan. I'm sure there will be a ton of election workers who will be forced to just do their job, since it's NOT their job to find reasons to not do their job. Multiple workers faced charges before for refusing to just do the job they are assigned to. And I'm sure there will be a source of lawyers who ignore the repercussions laid out on the 2020 lawyers when they lied in court. So there will be confusion, chaos, and things talked about. But of all of that, the only ballots that seem to really be capable of being questioned are the provisional ballots.

So if Harris/Walz wins by a wide enough margin, then the courts will have no genuine way to overturn the election. The SCOTUS will just have to make it up, and then it will be a battle between them and Biden/Harris.

BTW, I think I have google spell checker, and for some reason, it thinks Walz is a misspelled word. I'm not going to add it to the dictionary, as it should be automatically done.
 
French Rage said:
I'm not getting optimistic or pessimistic until there's something definitive to go on. If it were a 10 point spread in either direction I would be one of the two, but the polls where they are don't tell me enough about which way it is going to swing to warrant a strong reaction as of now. I'm not saying the polls are right and it will be 50/50, but until we know exactly how they're wrong, it doesn't feel prudent to make a guess yet.
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Oh, 100% agree that its way too early to tell.

My confidence is still based on the belief that we are now on our 3rd election ('20, '22, now) where the D base is highly motivated and a LOT of people have a direct threat put on them by R's. So I fully do believe there will be a strong turnout.

And on the flip side, Dumpy/R's have done nothing to gain voters, but have constantly been shedding them slowly, but surely over time.

Its a simple, but solid gage I feel.
 
French Rage said:
I mean, I get your reasons, I just always assume the other shoe is going to drop with every one of these now.
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It's not going to be as crazy as the early numbers, they will catch up but the problem is the math. For example Michigan like 2.2 million votes have already been cast which is around half the expected vote total and she is annhiliating him. He has to match her performance (massive overproduction) in same day voting or he is toast. (Based on what early voters are saying)

The other issue is he is fading in the late innings. His GOTV sucks anyways but he is not exactly inspiring his people. Going full racist and calling the US a trash can didn't get people jazzed up...

It's not even close to over...but I would rather be us than them numbers-wise going into the last few days.
 
Handyman said:
For example Michigan like 2.2 million votes have already been cast which is around half the expected vote total and she is annhiliating him.
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I read 47% of NC has already voted early. If she has a 2:1 advantage in those votes that's a helluva lead.

But we need those numbers reported first.
 
Jimjamesak said:
There’s been a quick u-turn from “he’s gonna crush!” to “they’re cheating!”
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To be fair, if that's the right word, they always planned for two outcomes: he wins or it's rigged. The real problem is the 60M suckers who will go right along with it. The party knows it's bullsh-t, the base doesn't.

The whole point for his group was to sow chaos. That's going to happen no matter what. So hopefully she has an unequivocal lead in the EC for when their soft coup starts again.
 
CPR with good news. Dump's lead with men is 10.5, Harris' lead with women is 11.7. Since 1996, women have voted more than men by 2%.

Aside: > 42% of women voting for Dump is really all you need to know to confirm my opinion of the dumb half of our species. That isn't just ignorance; it is willful self-hatred. If all human beings had the brains of even a state school incoming freshman, she'd be ahead among women 80-20.
 
Kepler said:
I read 47% of NC has already voted early. If she has a 2:1 advantage in those votes that's a helluva lead.

But we need those numbers reported first.
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North Carolina is expected call first so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
 
So, a question- I keep seeing polls saying it’s a dead heat, too close to call, etc. where do these polls get their data? I think we discussed it here before but if it’s based on phone surveying, then those results could be skewed because the younger generation doesn’t answer the phones so they have to go by which people do answer, right? I just can’t understand how it’s so close. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a large base, but given the support we’ve seen for Harris, if all those people that are going to her events vote, I don’t think it be a dead heat. Gah!! I need to stop overthinking this. It’s really getting me anxious.
 
It's not a dead heat...polling as done by most of the networks and newspapers is flawed for quite a few reasons. It's close but not 50/50 like they want you to believe.

But in truth most elections since 2000 have been close.
 
2008 is the only election this century that was decided before midnight of Election Day. 1980-1996 was decided by midnight, I think.
 
Handyman said:
You know how you know things aren't looking good for Trump...all of his allies like Charlie Kirk, Mike Cernovich and Nick Fuentes are out screaming about how much women are terrible and costing them the election.
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Maybe they should have thought about that before spending the last eight years denigrating and treating them as if they had no right to even exist.
 
bronconick said:
2008 is the only election this century that was decided before midnight of Election Day. 1980-1996 was decided by midnight, I think.
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Anyone else remember how tv news at one point caught a bunch of shit over calling races before western states closed? So the decided to temper their calls…. but not for long.
 
Apparently if you go by the Fox News polling internals, to get their projected topline the electorate would have to be 95% white.
 
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