2012 Presidential Election Part 4

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

Can't find the quote, but I read that Silver considers that the least impressive part of his performance. He admits probably 47 of those states were pretty obvious for one candidate. What he found more impressive was 35 for 35 on the Senate, and how accurately the simulation reflected Obama surpassing McCain as the economy collapsed.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Well, this is a bit of a surprise, as the Des Moines Register has endorsed a Democrat for President from 1976 through 2008 inclusive.

Des Moines Register endorses Romney:

Yeah, I found this interesting as well.

Although he did accomplish what the register considers 'achievements' in a liberal state, I lived in MA during those years and the vast, vast majority there ended up regretting their vote almost instantanously. And the polls show that even though he is a 'son' of MA, that huge majority there know him and want nothing to do with him. For many there, he seems to be the MA equivalent of Michelle Bachmann...a candidate that doesn't go away.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Now that Sandy is projected to hit AC, I'm just waiting for the religion-clinging fascist right to start thumping their anti-gambling message and how Las Vegas needs to be wiped off the map. -_-

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Although 'he did accomplish achievements in a liberal state', I lived in MA during those years and the vast, vast majority there ended up regretting their vote almost instantanously. And the polls show that even though he is a 'son' of MA, that huge majority there know him and want nothing to do with him.

Yet over and over again people are playing the "achievements in a liberal state" card. What achievements are there? Health Care? He'd denounced that. Employment? Not much of a record there. Balanced the Budget? Big whoop, all states have balanced budget amendments. We balanced the budget in Minnesota too. It's all gimmicks and accounting tricks and Massachusetts was no different.

And, Massachusetts ain't voting for Romney. No way, no how. Shouldn't that tell someone something? Sounds like the Des Moines Register is populated with the same morons as the Detroit Free Press. I want to see some actual data to back up his claims. His entire platform is rhetoric and platitudes. Where's the beef?

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Now that Sandy is projected to hit AC, I'm just waiting for the religion-clinging fascist right to start thumping their anti-gambling message and how Las Vegas needs to be wiped off the map. -_-

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/most-outrageous-hurricane-sandy-consipiracy-theori

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Yeah, I found this interesting as well.

Although he did accomplish what the register considers 'achievements' in a liberal state, I lived in MA during those years and the vast, vast majority there ended up regretting their vote almost instantanously. And the polls show that even though he is a 'son' of MA, that huge majority there know him and want nothing to do with him. For many there, he seems to be the MA equivalent of Michelle Bachmann...a candidate that doesn't go away.

If the "vast, vast majority" of the folks who voted for Romney ended up "regretting their vote almost instantaneously" then they're even bigger dolts than I had imagined. These are, after all, the people who will vote for any drunken, drowning, lecherous Kennedy a*shole who comes staggering down the highway. Maybe you're right.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Yet over and over again people are playing the "achievements in a liberal state" card. What achievements are there? Health Care? He'd denounced that. Employment? Not much of a record there. Balanced the Budget? Big whoop, all states have balanced budget amendments. We balanced the budget in Minnesota too. It's all gimmicks and accounting tricks and Massachusetts was no different.

And, Massachusetts ain't voting for Romney. No way, no how. Shouldn't that tell someone something? Sounds like the Des Moines Register is populated with the same morons as the Detroit Free Press. I want to see some actual data to back up his claims. His entire platform is rhetoric and platitudes. Where's the beef?

South Dakota didn't vote for McGovern (RIP) and Tennessee didn't vote for Gore, which would have made him president. So what?

 

[REDMEN2002]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I lived in MA during those years and the vast, vast majority there ended up regretting their vote almost instantanously. And the polls show that even though he is a 'son' of MA, that huge majority there know him and want nothing to do with him. For many there, he seems to be the MA equivalent of Michelle Bachmann...a candidate that doesn't go away.

I live in MA and voted for Governor Romney. Don't regret it for a second. The vast majority of people you know probably lived in Cambridge.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I live in MA and voted for Governor Romney. Don't regret it for a second. The vast majority of people you know probably lived in Cambridge.

NYT film critic Pauline Kael famously said she couldn't understand how Nixon won. Nobody she knew had voted for him. Exactly.

 

[ericredaxe]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Treason.

Sounds like a really non-partisan perspective!

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

What you lack in rationality you more than make up for in enthusiasm and unwavering self certainly, I'll say that much, Pio. Despite your user name, you sound very very young.

I can only dream of what you could accomplish if you put that bitter yet fanciful desire to insult to good use by insulting gopher fans on this board. This is shaping up to be a tough year, and we could use you. You would feel fulfilled, and you would make a ton of friends in the process.

I'm "young" enough to have interviewed Bob Johnson--when he coached at CC!

 

[ericredaxe]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

If the "vast, vast majority" of the folks who voted for Romney ended up "regretting their vote almost instantaneously" then they're even bigger dolts than I had imagined. These are, after all, the people who will vote for any drunken, drowning, lecherous Kennedy a*shole who comes staggering down the highway. Maybe you're right.

I live in MA and voted for Governor Romney. Don't regret it for a second. The vast majority of people you know probably lived in Cambridge.

I also live in MA and voted for Romney as Governor... and also don't regret it.

 

[burd]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I'm "young" enough to have interviewed Bob Johnson--when he coached at CC!

Gotta admit, your cred score just took a jump.

Come to think of it, I watched the first game in the old Engelstad Arena, and I think Jeff Sauer was coaching CC in that game. Could that be right?

 

[joecct]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

From Edward Gibbon, he of "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" fame....

“In the end, more than freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all — security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.”

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Gotta admit, your cred score just took a jump.

Come to think of it, I watched the first game in the old Engelstad Arena, and I think Jeff Sauer was coaching CC in that game. Could that be right?

Bob left the Springs for Madison after the '65-66 season. His 3 year record of 26-49-3 was hardly predictive of the tremendous success he'd have at Wisconsin. Big time school, huge enthusiastic fan base and a big new arena all worked in his favor.

Anyway, John Matchefts followed Johnson 'till '70-'71. Sauer's first season was '71-'72.

I was overseas in those days, so I can't tell you when Englestad I was built. Stars and Stripes rarely carried any college hockey news.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Can't find the quote, but I read that Silver considers that the least impressive part of his performance. He admits probably 47 of those states were pretty obvious for one candidate. What he found more impressive was 35 for 35 on the Senate, and how accurately the simulation reflected Obama surpassing McCain as the economy collapsed.

Just saw this Politico column, tend to agree with Silvers' defense of his aims and methods. It just happens that those methods in this circumstance highlight it's value (or, less likely, its curse) as having value added to the polls themselves. It's not magic, he's just adding extra info (turnout histories, etc. etc.) into the mix of the polls. Will be interesting to see if his accuracy holds with # electoral votes etc.

The irony is that people want to put a lot of weight on his prediction (either in support or opposition) but a Romney win doesn't make his prediction (75%) wrong. It just means that Romney made a somewhat remarkable comeback.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I live in MA and voted for Governor Romney. Don't regret it for a second. The vast majority of people you know probably lived in Cambridge.

Romney ended up with 34% popularity...is that a record low for a governor? Probably not, but its a nice try. Right, wrong, indifferent, you seem a pretty significant outlier.

Working outside of 128, the majority of people I know live throughout the larger Boston metro area...and not in the merrimack valley nor Newburyport. Which probably explains what we each saw.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Just saw this Politico column, tend to agree with Silvers' defense of his aims and methods. It just happens that those methods in this circumstance highlight it's value (or, less likely, its curse) as having value added to the polls themselves. It's not magic, he's just adding extra info (turnout histories, etc. etc.) into the mix of the polls. Will be interesting to see if his accuracy holds with # electoral votes etc.

The irony is that people want to put a lot of weight on his prediction (either in support or opposition) but a Romney win doesn't make his prediction (75%) wrong. It just means that Romney made a somewhat remarkable comeback.

I do some work with forecasts and its very tricky. The big question I have (which I think you infer) is whether his model can change in a more fluid race. If not, it has different flaws that didn't manifest themselves in a more predictable 2008 race.

I don't think its rocket science in saying that this will either line up as an Obama electoral win which will make Silvers look like a genius or he'll miss on some states which due to his 3:1 prediction could just make him look wrong.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I do some work with forecasts and its very tricky. The big question I have (which I think you infer) is whether his model can change in a more fluid race. If not, it has different flaws that didn't manifest themselves in a more predictable 2008 race.

I don't think its rocket science in saying that this will either line up as an Obama electoral win which will make Silvers look like a genius or he'll miss on some states which due to his 3:1 prediction could just make him look wrong.

You're right that it's surely very tricky. What I suspect could potentially be the one big liability is his massaging the polls based on past performance without accounting for differences in underlying fundamentals (which might, on the other hand, be picked up on simply by straight polling). For example, differences in "the mood" based on ethereal hopey-changey mumbo jumbo and/or the absence of the same. Can he measure depressed turnout among those whose mortgages weren't, after all, paid off by Obama as an expected personal favor? I doubt it. At least not accurately.

 

[REDMEN2002]

Romney ended up with 34% popularity...is that a record low for a governor? Probably not, but its a nice try. Right, wrong, indifferent, you seem a pretty significant outlier.

Working outside of 128, the majority of people I know live throughout the larger Boston metro area...and not in the merrimack valley nor Newburyport. Which probably explains what we each saw.

I live in the Merrimack Valley but many of my family, friends, of all political leanings are from suffolk county. Didn't hear a lot of *****ing about Governor Romney there. Turning a 3 billion deficit into a 2 billion surplus, what a terrible governor he was!

Also, a 20 minute drive on 93 gets me to Boston. I'm not out in the Berkshires.