2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

[Rover]

Do I have to pull the little ring on the back of your head to get more Obama bon mots?

No Opie, you'll be hearing plenty from me the day after the election, although I can't promise you you'll like what I have to say.

The latest polls:

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)

Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)

Also from our good buddy Dick Morris:

Dick Morris, who just days ago predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney, may be wavering.

"With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48. That is troublesome.

"And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night's polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan."

"More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll."

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Even though the calendar has turned and we're in November, the Friday before the voting is the traditional day for "October Surprises." The theory is the victims of these "surprises" don't have enough time to respond before we go to the polls. The revelation of Bush's 25 year old DUI came on the Friday before the voting in '00. The announcement of the indictment of Caspar Weinberger, likewise, came on the Friday before the voting in '92.

So we'll be waitng to see if there's gonna be a "surprise" this time around. And if so, what. Bob Menendez sure as h*ll ain't it.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

While you're entirely wrong (as customary) you reminded me of a famous story still told in Louisiana. When Huey Long went to the Senate, he was replaced as governor by O. K. Allen. Allen, of course, merely did what Huey told him to do. He was supposedly so compliant, the story goes, that one day a leaf blew in the window and landed on his desk--and he signed it.

As is the norm, you declare someone is wrong without disproving anything and then go on some inane rambling referencing things that no one under 70 remembers and that aren't related to the subject at hand.

Real intellectual giant you are.

Do tell where I was wrong.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Romney's a lock.

It would be entertaining if he manages to lose though. So much invested in making Obama a one term President. Investments to the point of legislators refusing to do their jobs to insure that happens.

 

[burd]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I don't follow these matters closely. But a few years ago weren't some of these "warmists", with equal assurance, warning us of global freezing?

How can you be so quick to believe Obama watched people die in Libya while consciously doing nothing about it and yet so slow to believe that human factors are causing global warming? A skeptic on one hand and what some might describe as a gullible, eager-to-be-manipulated believer on the other.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

How can you be so quick to believe Obama watched people die in Libya while consciously doing nothing about it and yet so slow to believe that human factors are causing global warming? A skeptic on one hand and what some might describe as a gullible, eager-to-be-manipulated believer on the other.

Sean Hannity's the same way. I see no difference between the two.

 

[burd]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Sean Hannity's the same way. I see no difference between the two.

Perhaps the difference is that Hannity plays the con for money while Pio does it for the fun. At least I like to think that is the case.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I'm not convinced our current science is advanced enough to convincingly tease out a man-made cause in climate change. We can observe climate change occurring, and we can observe man made changes on the environment but we can really plug that into the rest of the entire system and say "Yep, that's the cause?" It always gets explained to me as a simple correlation. "We pump out more CO2 because we're awful, and that makes everything hotter." The entire planet wide system seems more complicated than that.

Even though climate is quite chaotic locally, it's not that hard to develop reasonably accurate long-term-averaged aggregate models, and we can measure most of the inputs. To wit, we can measure the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we can measure the amount of energy that strikes the earth from the sun, we can measure or model to a high degree of confidence thing like albedo, we can measure or model to a high degree of confidence how much energy the earth radiates back into space and on what wavelengths, and so on.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

How can you be so quick to believe Obama watched people die in Libya while consciously doing nothing about it and yet so slow to believe that human factors are causing global warming? A skeptic on one hand and what some might describe as a gullible, eager-to-be-manipulated believer on the other.

Just depends on who's telling him.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I'm not convinced our current science is advanced enough to convincingly tease out a man-made cause in climate change. We can observe climate change occurring, and we can observe man made changes on the environment but we can really plug that into the rest of the entire system and say "Yep, that's the cause?" It always gets explained to me as a simple correlation. "We pump out more CO2 because we're awful, and that makes everything hotter." The entire planet wide system seems more complicated than that.

Well put. There has been global warming and global cooling going on for millenia.

 

[burd]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

OK. We've got Benghazi, Obomneycare, etchamitt, birthers, taxers and spenders and . . .

WE GOT HOCKEY TONIGHT!!!!!! WAHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Have fun tonight, boys.

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Well put. There has been global warming and global cooling going on for millenia.

Tide goes in, tide goes out, never a miss-communication.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Sean Hannity's the same way. I see no difference between the two.

You ladies in the chorale are the experts since you evidently watch Hannity more than his mom.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

How can you be so quick to believe Obama watched people die in Libya while consciously doing nothing about it and yet so slow to believe that human factors are causing global warming? A skeptic on one hand and what some might describe as a gullible, eager-to-be-manipulated believer on the other.

Are the standards of "evidence" the same? Live streaming video and e-mails on the one hand. And millenia long changes, models, measurements, charts, graphs, satellites, seminars, papers, etc on the other?

Is the standard of presidential responsibility the same? Diplomats whose safety is his personal responsibility on the one hand? Or some vague, "we are the world" nostrum?

For the slow students, it would be the difference between micro and macro.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Perhaps the difference is that Hannity plays the con for money while Pio does it for the fun. At least I like to think that is the case.

That's total bull sh*za, but I'd trade bank accounts with him in an instant. Just for the record, I'm not the slightest bit interested in what you'd "like" or even the dubious proposition that you "think."

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

As is the norm, you declare someone is wrong without disproving anything and then go on some inane rambling referencing things that no one under 70 remembers and that aren't related to the subject at hand.

Real intellectual giant you are.

Do tell where I was wrong.

Sorry. I'm not allowed to play with children or trolls. And since you're both, you figure it out.

 

[pirate]

As someone who is skeptical of baseless claims? Happy to oblige.


Obviously it is more complicated than that but a judgement call of awful or not doesn't factor in. It's happening and the data supports a clear correlation between human activities and the rise in global temperatures. I'll even reference a study, that started out specifically to show that the data was inaccurate, because unlike old piece of **** I do believe in backing things up.

Opinion piece by the organizer.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/o...mate-change-skeptic.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&

And the results they got after pouring over mountains of data.
http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/

So they are saying there were enough people and or enough volcanic activity to impact global temperatures in the 1700's? I'm viewing on phone so I may be challenged scale wise.

I have no doubt the earth is warming, I am not sure the graphs I just saw prove it is only people causing the change.

As a side note, I did read the articles saying the Antarctic icecap is growing and got a chuckle out of the scientists comments regarding that being perfectly understandable. If the arctic ice reduction is man made global warming and Antarctic ice increase is also global warming does that mean hot air rises 'up' to the northern hemisphere?

;-)

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I didn't write this:

History repeats itself--according to Marx, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce. Depending on one's ideological leanings, the reverse may be true, but it occurs to us that we've heard a lot of echoes of the worst of Bush's eight years during Obama's final weeks before Election Day.

In Libya, as in Iraq, we had a military intervention that was supposed to be quick and easy but ended up exposing Americans to terrorism.

....

Hurricane Katrina was by many accounts the beginning of the end of Bush's presidency. Now a similarly destructive storm has hit the Northeast, and the federal response looks inadequate. "Before Sandy struck, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said they had 400 industrial-size power generators ready to help the East Coast," reports The Wall Street Journal. "Three days after Sandy landed, only a fraction of that equipment is actually providing power, despite the fact that millions are still without electricity."

Staten Island is New York City's hardest-hit borough: "People there say they're suffering--and not getting enough help," reports CBS News. "Some residents have been calling the area 'the forgotten borough.' " The network quotes one resident: "We're gonna die! We're gonna freeze! We've got 90-year-old people!"

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

There are a variety of astronomic phenomena that could affect the mean global temperature on the earth's surface sufficient to cause global warming or global cooling. If the tilt of the earth's axis changed slightly, a bit more or a bit less of the earth's surface would be exposed at the perigee and abogee of the orbit (we do know from geologic records that the direction of the earth's magnetic field flips every now and then on the geologic time scale). If the sun's rotation around its own axis changed, that could affect how much energy it emits and how much subsequently reaches earth (this one is a bit far-fetched). The elliptical shape of the earth's orbit fluctuates between slightly thinner to slightly rounder on the geologic time scale because of the interaction of the gravitational influence of the other planets, that can change how much energy reaches earth from the sun over geologic time spans.

If any of these or other natural, currently ill-understood, phenomena underly the data we see, can we afford to keep arguing about what caused it to the extent that we fail to take appropriate precautions on how to deal with the consequences?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Ohio joins Texas* and Iowa in telling Euro-weenies to MYOFB when it comes to "monitoring" the voting on Tuesday. Let 'em "monitor" in Haiti or Iran. And stay the h*ll out of the USA.

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/11/02/ohio-says-no-to-international-observers-in-polling-places/

*If they insist on showing up in Texas, I'd recommend Vidor.