2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kep & Handy thanks for the appreciation. That is my invention and mine only, but as you will soon discover pundits read the USCHO political threads and then often steal my ideas as their own. I expect this analogy to show up on somebody's blog, most likely a 20 something year old who has no idea who Andre The Giant is, in a few days time.

He'll know Andre because of Fezzik and/or this:

He probably won't know how the Royal Rumble used to completely dominate junior high school boys' conversation / recess / medical reports for weeks.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

And Mitt takes one more step in his flip-flops towards his Presidency. Congratulations, Mitt. I can't think of anyone who doesn't deserve it more than you don't.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Well, at least you're off the absurdity of repeatedly mentioning President Bachmann and on to something within the parameters of reality.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

That would take care of the rich, too. (Highly radioactive.)

Radiation be d*mned. This stuff spontaneously explodes when exposed to the moisture in the air.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/eCk0lYB_8c0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wow. Ok, so I've seen this a hundred times. This is the first time seeing it since I started watching TOp Gear. Richard Hammond has come so far.

Edit: Well, technically, it's not the metal that explodes.

 

[Tundra]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

"Fiat currency" is a canard. Anything that isn't barter is a fiat currency, including gold and silver. And the gold standard is loony: why should a nation's monetary policy be determined by the rate at which multinational corporations can extract and refine a somewhat rare mineral with little utilitarian value?

You're righ about fiat currency. the loony part is misguided since we've been off gold/silver standard for short period since 1970's (although Paul going on and on about fiat currency makes him seem loony) , under gold/silver standard USA had one of the lowest inflationary period. And I think that's where Ron Paul is going with the lecture on the fiat currency.

Problem with Paul's argument about simpler times and real currency (gold/silver) is that you had boom/bust economic cycle and inflation in ancient/modern times with gold standard. He has plenty of ammo to fire at the monetary policy and secrecy of the Federal Reserve Bank. without resorting to the boring boring boring dull dull dull lecture.

if GDP = M (total money supply) * V (velocity money or circulation of money)
if you could ignore inflation from over supply of money... just keep increasing the money supply for GDP growth. Although V (economic activity) has major effect on GDP as we've seen with our juiced up M.

central bank (Federal Reserve Bank) controls the M (via interbank lending rates, reserve (leverage) requirements, bank discount window, And after 0% rate QE1,2,3 etc...) and they have been easing way too much. It's like our economy has been on steroids and central bank is giving us bigger doses for eventual soft landing from central bank induced high somewhere in the distant future.

Under Gold/silver standard M (money supply would be fixed, although with fractional banking, and leverage of the commercial/investment banks that wouldn't be 100% correct in the modern world). But, you don't need to dismantle the central bank to control the M (money supply). Just take most of the monetary power away from the central bank back to congress.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Looks like this presidential election will be about who can do a better job of faking out their base.

I never thought I'd see the day where a guy pretending to be a liberal would run against one pretending to be a conservative.

Oh wait, that was 2008.

Nevermind (although things are different this time since Obama now has a record to run on/against).

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

It's funny. Democrats often have this view of Republicans as uber-disciplined, organized, vast right wing conspirators. This nomination is really going to put that stereotype to the test, with Romney offering up oppo soundbytes on a silver platter, Rick Perry pivoting from shooting coyotes to occupying Houston, Santorum scoring debating points against high-schoolers, and Newt being his clever but generally loathsome self. I'll leave Ron Paul out of this - we all know he's going to keep shuffling along, doing his thing. I'll also leave out Huntsman, who at least reassured the media that he'll stick around to tingle their leg for another state or two.

The GOP has to be glad to be leaving New Hampshire. Better days have to be ahead - even if just by default.

 

[unofan]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

if GDP = M (total money supply) * V (velocity money or circulation of money)
if you could ignore inflation from over supply of money... just keep increasing the money supply for GDP growth. Although V (economic activity) has major effect on GDP as we've seen with our juiced up M.

central bank (Federal Reserve Bank) controls the M (via interbank lending rates, reserve (leverage) requirements, bank discount window, And after 0% rate QE1,2,3 etc...) and they have been easing way too much. It's like our economy has been on steroids and central bank is giving us bigger doses for eventual soft landing from central bank induced high somewhere in the distant future.

Under Gold/silver standard M (money supply would be fixed, although with fractional banking, and leverage of the commercial/investment banks that wouldn't be 100% correct in the modern world). But, you don't need to dismantle the central bank to control the M (money supply). Just take most of the monetary power away from the central bank back to congress.

Your equation isn't 100% correct. It's MV = PQ. While GDP seems intuitively to be PQ, in the grand scheme of things, GDP is really simply Q (the amount of goods and services produced), and P is simply the inflationary measure since for any given year, it can be fixed to 1.

You also don't want a fixed money supply - you want a money supply that expands with GDP. The reason everyone dropped the gold standard in the 70's is because countries were literally running out of gold.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

JPod is a vicious halfwit who only has a job because of nepotism, but it's still interesting to hear a creature from deep within the GOP's own grotesque id cry about Romney like this.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Radiation be d*mned. This stuff spontaneously explodes when exposed to the moisture in the air.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/eCk0lYB_8c0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wow. Ok, so I've seen this a hundred times. This is the first time seeing it since I started watching TOp Gear. Richard Hammond has come so far.

Edit: Well, technically, it's not the metal that explodes.

I'm never going to look at Lithium quite the same way again.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Irony was retired the day they gave Kissinger the Nobel Peace Prize, but this is pretty close.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Irony was retired the day they gave Kissinger the Nobel Peace Prize, but this is pretty close.

Yeah, definitely better to win that devalued pos award for having done nothing, zip, squat, nada. Much better. As to the article, I've always had suspicions about Santorum.

 

[Tundra]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Can I ask why media is making fun of Ron Paul for wanting to open up the book of the central bank and make changes to it-even eliminate it?

I was disappointed to see Charlie Rose and all the pundits making fun of Paul about central bank yesterday. Not sure why so many in the media gives so much credence to the Federal Reserve governors after the horrible number they did to our economy.

I mean these federal governors are just crappy bankers without any more insight than the rest of us (as can be seen from their meetings). Probably less insight and myopic view, if they didn't realize the housing was a MAJOR potential problem in 2006.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin.../12/gIQAvh0mtP_story.html?tid=pm_business_pop

Geithner, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told Greenspan amid laughter on Jan. 31, 2006. �And thinking in terms of probabilities, I think the risk that we decide in the future that you�re even better than we think is higher than the alternative.�

The transcripts, which are customarily released after five years, show that Fed leaders, armed with the best economic data available, had little idea of what was looming less than two years off.

 

[huskyfan]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

how can Romney lose? he'll carry Michigan and New Hampshire and Florida and Ohio and Virginia and maybe North Carolina. not up to doing the math, but I think that's win. electorally speaking

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Apparently write-in votes aren't allowed in South Carolina. So Stephen Colbert won't be running in S.C. after all, despite polling ahead of Huntsman, and within striking distance of Perry.

I bet he still runs ads, though.

 

[Tundra]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I've to wonder about Newt. He wants accountability of the central bank... basically taking the side of Ron Paul, and giving me hope for Republicans with the speech he made in SC, but then next words out of his mouth is to repeal Sarbanes-OXley Act of 2002. I mean that act was all about accountability.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarbanes–Oxley_Act

The act was approved by the House by a vote of 423 in favor, 3 opposed, and 8 abstaining and by the Senate with a vote of 99 in favor, 1 abstaining. President George W. Bush signed it into law, stating it included "the most far-reaching reforms of American business practices

The bill was enacted as a reaction to a number of major corporate and accounting scandals including those affecting Enron, Tyco International, Adelphia, Peregrine Systems and WorldCom. These scandals, which cost investors billions of dollars when the share prices of affected companies collapsed, shook public confidence

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

how can Romney lose? he'll carry Michigan and New Hampshire and Florida and Ohio and Virginia and maybe North Carolina. not up to doing the math, but I think that's win. electorally speaking

He can't lose. It's over. This time a younger establishment candidate wins and we get 8 more years of GW Bush. So, basically he can't lose and the American people can't win.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Apparently write-in votes aren't allowed in South Carolina.

Seems kinda unconstitutional, but apparently the ground has been covered.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

how can Romney lose? he'll carry Michigan and New Hampshire and Florida and Ohio and Virginia and maybe North Carolina. not up to doing the math, but I think that's win. electorally speaking

This is a good interactive map. Set the initial view to "2008 Actual Results." With the EV adjustment that leaves the GOP 91 short to start. If Romney carried all of the states you list: MI (16), NH (4), FL (29), OH (18), VA (13), and NC (15), that would give him a 274-264 win.

I think I read somewhere (can't completely vouch for it) that either Maine or Nebraska's districts were redrawn such that the GOP might pick up a vote.

The Romney family has roots in MI and NH so I agree with those states flipping. Working in VA, I think this is also a state where he has a shot, and I am assuming (and this may be wrong of course) that as goes VA so will go NC. Last summer I would have said Obama had no chance of winning in VA again. With the implosion of the local tea party (far worse than nationally) I would say the odds now about 40/60 against Obama.

Therefore it comes down to OH and FL, and I think Romney is going to have trouble in both. OH will be difficult because of the Bain attack -- Romney is the quintessence of "vulture capitalism," and that is a bad demographic for him. The religious issue could be a problem for him as far as driving down some of the stranger members of the fringe, though that would be countered if he picked some rock-ribbed fundy for VP.

FL is a problem because of the Ryan Plan. It's just going to be really hard to be associated with any sort of "reform" / diminution of SS in that state. Picking Rubio as VP would help him a lot.

So if the economy stays tepid or worse, I think it will be a nail-biter, with Romney having a path to election by a tiny margin through your states. If the economy improves at all, then the chances of Romney winning every one of those states decreases commensurately.

I would translate your "how can he lose" into about a 40% shot at winning. Far higher than McCain's chances, though.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

There was some talk of Nebraska eliminating the awarding electoral votes by Congressional district because of the Obama win in the seat I believe centered in Omaha but I don't think that got enacted.

Romney has little chance of winning Michigan after he's on record publicly saying the auto industry should go bankrupt. These are the very voters, the white working class Reagan/Perot voters, that he needs to win. Instead Mr. Outsourcing has already stupidly declared that he would have been more than happy to see it go under. Good luck selling that in the factory towns of MI, especially when the US auto industry has made a spectacular recovery and both GM and Chrysler are adding jobs in the state.

Put it this way, if he wins Michigan, the race would have been decided long before that race gets called because he'd be on his way to a 400 elctoral vote win. Interesting from your math though Kep that if Obama wins MI but loses the other states you listed, he still wins the Presidency.